bluewave

Newark has only reached 70 degrees or higher on 9 days since March 1st. This is the 4 lowest number of days on record through May 18th. Big reversal from years like 2010, 2012, and 2015. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18 Missing Count 1 1966-05-18 4 0 2 1978-05-18 7 0 3 1967-05-18 8 0 4 2020-05-18 9 0 - 1997-05-18 9 0 5 1968-05-18 10 0 - 1940-05-18 10 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18 Missing Count 1 2012-05-18 29 0 - 2010-05-18 29 0 2 1985-05-18 28 0 - 1977-05-18 28 0 3 1945-05-18 26 0 4 1981-05-18 24 0 - 1976-05-18 24 0 5 2015-05-18 23 0

A great push of spring migrants finally arrived with the warm front late last week. It took a while to get a favorable SW flow for migration.

Probably a better chance of needing the heat than AC next several days. Coastal sections could see 30 to 40 mph easterly gusts on Tuesday. Interior sections should drop into the 30’s early on Thursday.

The continuing IO standing wave may mean that this doesn’t follow the typical developing La Niña playbook. We currently have record SST’s in the Indian Ocean. Typical La Niña summer forcing pattern closer to Maritime Continent Seasonal forecast further West IO forcing

The Euro has plenty on easterly flow over the next 10 days. The warmest that the Euro gets through the 27th is 75-80 in the warmer locations of NJ. This Is well below average for a max from the 17th to the 27th. Many years we make it to 90 degrees or higher in at a place like Newark. The last time Newark didn’t reach 80 was back in 2003. That was also the most recent time that we had below average temperatures in both April and May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature May 17 to May 27 Missing Count 2019-05-27 90 0 2018-05-27 92 0 2017-05-27 94 0 2016-05-27 93 0 2015-05-27 91 0 2014-05-27 88 0 2013-05-27 88 0 2012-05-27 86 0 2011-05-27 88 0 2010-05-27 95 0 2009-05-27 87 0 2008-05-27 87 0 2007-05-27 92 0 2006-05-27 86 0 2005-05-27 84 0 2004-05-27 92 0 2003-05-27 78 0

The ocean is still in the low 50’s. Jones Beach N/A 52 N/A N/A SE13 N/A Wantagh N/A 57 48 72 SE13 N/A NY Harb Entrance 1750 51 54 100/ 12/ 14 1025.3 3/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1750 51 53 90/ 12/ 14 1025.3 3/

Tough to get much rain as long as that blocking high remains anchored near New England. Strong blocking in various locations has been the big story since April. As we can see below, models have been underestimating the blocking intensity beyond 5 days out. That’s why I won’t really believe a shift to warmer until it verifies under 120 hrs. The spring long range model warm up forecasts are the equivalent of the big snow was always 10 days away during the winter. New run Old run

We are on track for no 90 degree days this year right through Memorial Day. EPS keeps a UL over the East with strong high pressure east of New England. So it maintains a cooler easterly flow. It does briefly turn the winds SW later this week for a chance to make 80 degrees on Friday. But it looks like the 86 at Newark on the 15th will hold as the monthly high temperature for a while.

12z Euro is dry through 120 hrs with the tropical system remaining offshore.

This was 0z.

The Euro does much better with tropical and trough interactions than the GFS. I would believe it if the 12z Euro came in more phased than the 0z run. But the 12z GFS took a step further east. The 12zCMC, UKMET, and NAM are similar to the 0z Euro more OTS.

The GFS tried to do the same with Joaquin while the Euro was OTS. You can see the 12z beginning to shift toward the other models. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/06/what-the-european-model-win-over-the-american-model-means-for-weather-forecasting/

We know that the summer dew points increased to record levels since the super El Niño in 2016. But it will be interesting to see how those seasonal model forecasts work out for this summer. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=AMW&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=65&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Euro and UKMET pretty much identical to the CanSIPS and JMA for the summer. Strongest heat over the Western US with wet and humid conditions in the East. Also notice the heavy precipitation with the IO standing wave.

There could be a very sharp cutoff between who gets the heaviest rains and doesn’t.

We get our brief warm up followed by about a week of easterly flow. Rainfall amounts will probably be determined in the short term. Looks like models are struggling with the placement of a PRE. Often happens with a subtropical or tropical systems to our SE.

We had 2 recent winters with the La Niña background state and an El Niño that couldn’t really develop. The MJO remained in the unfavorable phases. Models are hinting at a -IOD for next winter. This would mean more warm SST’s north of Australia near the Maritime Continent. So unfavorable MJO phases could be a player again. But the coupled La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18 had to deal with this . We were able to sneak in snowy intervals during those winters which alternated with record warmth. The last few winters the snowy intervals never materialized. So it will be interesting to see if a more coupled La Niña next winter resembles 16-17 and 17-18. Or has more in common with 18-19 and 19-20.

The CanSIPS has the same summer pattern. The IO has had a big influence on our weather since the record +IOD last fall.

The latest JMA summer forecast has a big IO standing wave pattern. It places the strongest ridging and warmest temperatures over the Western US. But there looks like a weak WAR keeping our temperature departures a little above normal. Pattern also looks wet and humid.

Very unusual 1800’s style April maximum temperature and May minimum temperature. Even more out of place following the 4th warmest December through March. So there are no analogs for this type of extreme pattern reversal. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1874 64 0 - 1873 64 0 2 1940 67 0 - 1875 67 0 3 2020 68 0 - 1883 68 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1891 32 0 2 1874 33 0 3 2020 34 19 4 1947 35 0 - 1880 35 0 5 1977 36 0 - 1966 36 0 - 1913 36 0 - 1876 36 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Mar 31 Missing Count 1 2012-03-31 43.1 0 2 2016-03-31 43.0 0 3 2002-03-31 42.2 0 4 2020-03-31 41.4 0 5 1998-03-31 41.1 0 6 1991-03-31 40.5 0

It has been the 7th coldest so far. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Apr 15 to May 12 Missing Count 1 1875-05-12 47.2 0 2 1874-05-12 47.6 0 3 1873-05-12 49.3 0 4 1917-05-12 50.0 0 5 1893-05-12 50.2 0 6 1967-05-12 50.5 0 7 2020-05-12 51.0 0 - 1882-05-12 51.0 0

NYC is at -5.3 for May through the 12th. April finished at -2.7. The last time NYC had a cold April and May was in 2003. So it will be interesting to see if the cool onshore pattern coming up is enough for May to finish below normal. The April average temperature in NYC is 53.0 and 62.4 in May Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Season 2020 50.4 54.4 52.4 2019 55.5 62.2 58.9 2018 49.5 66.9 58.2 2017 57.2 61.1 59.2 2016 53.3 62.8 58.1 2015 54.3 68.5 61.4 2014 52.3 64.0 58.2 2013 53.0 62.8 57.9 2012 54.8 65.1 60.0 2011 54.3 64.5 59.4 2010 57.9 65.3 61.6 2009 54.5 62.5 58.5 2008 55.0 60.1 57.6 2007 50.3 65.2 57.8 2006 55.7 63.1 59.4 2005 55.1 58.9 57.0 2004 53.6 65.2 59.4 2003 49.8 58.7 54.3

Euro and EPS moving to more of an extended UL pattern along the East Coast starting with the backdoor on Sunday. The big warm up that the models were showing during this period will have to wait. The strongest ridging will remain to our west. So it looks like the 80+ on Friday will be our warmest day for a while. New run Old run

Euro and GFS agree on the backdoor and cool easterly for Sunday. But Monday and Tuesday depend on how far north the UL and subtropical system get. Euro is warmer for us Monday and Tuesday with the system staying suppressed. While the GFS is further north with cooler onshore flow lingering.

That’s tough to do this time of year. Looks like 80+ for the warm spots on Friday before the backdoor on Sunday.