bluewave

This would be one heck of a +AO pressure gradient.

High temperatures beat guidance behind the warm front today. But the Euro came closest.

It looks like North Carolina to Florida are experiencing a faster rise than we are. https://e360.yale.edu/features/flooding-hot-spots-why-seas-are-rising-faster-on-the-u.s.-east-coast What Norfolk gets is that while sea level is rising globally at about a tenth of an inch per year, cities along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States — including Norfolk; Baltimore; Charleston, South Carolina; and Miami, among others — have suffered “sunny day” flooding from seas rising far faster than the global average. One study published last year shows that from 2011 to 2015, sea level rose up to 5 inches — an inch per year — in some locales from North Carolina to Florida. Given growing concerns over the flooding, scientists are now working to unravel the mystery of why some parts of the globe are experiencing so-called “sunny day” flooding that had not been expected for decades under conventional sea level rise projections. Along the southeastern coast of the U.S., researchers have zeroed in on three factors that have made this shoreline a regional hot spot of sea level rise. They include a slowing Gulf Stream, shifts in a major North Atlantic weather pattern, and the effects of El Niño climate cycles. “These coastal areas are more vulnerable than they realize to short-term rapid acceleration of sea level rise,” says Andrea Dutton, a University of Florida geologist who studies the history of sea level fluctuations. “If they’re hanging their hat on sea level rise projections looking at the potential over decades, they need to refocus and think about the potential for short-term variability in that rate.” Around the world, sea levels are not rising equally like water in a bathtub. The oceans are more akin to a rubber kiddie pool where the water sloshes around unevenly, often considerably higher on one side than another.

Better that temperatures are in the 40’s than 20’s for the annual Long Beach Polar Bear Plunge.

The 5.9 inch sea level rise in South Florida since 1996 is a mix of both subsidence and rising sea levels. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/08/analysis-sea-level-rise-is-combining-with-other-factors-regularly-flood-miami/ According to this analysis, there was a 5.9-inch sea-level rise in Miami since 1996. For a city that floods at just 16 inches above flood stage, that jump, which is due to both sea-level rise and land subsidence, is highly consequential. You might think that should correspond to a 38 percent increase in the amount of flooding Miami is seeing now versus 23 years ago, since 5.9 inches is 38 percent of 16 inches. In reality, there has been a 3.2-fold increase in how often Miami sees nuisance flooding. That’s a 320 percent jump. The reason? Flooding is nonlinear. That means that even if the sea level rose at a constant rate, the impacts and flooding Miami residents would experience skyrocket disproportionately fast.

Yeah, the roundly plots slow down the MJO through the warm phases. Convection really lingers over those record warm SST’s.

You wonder if the MJO slowing in the warm phases like this means different March expectations from recent years? The MJO last several years made it to the cold phases by late February. Then we got the lagged cold and snow for March.

The 2020’s are starting with a completely different AO state than the 2010’s did.

GFS cold bias strikes again. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/ The model has tended to overpredict snowfall in the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, setting off false alarms in a region where forecasts are particularly consequential. In Boston, which has seen just six inches of snow this winter, Eric Fisher, chief meteorologist for the CBS affiliate, remarkedthat the model had predicted “multiple” 30-inch snowfalls. Here in Washington, we have documented multiple cases in which its snowfall forecasts several days into the future have been erroneously high. In early December, it was predicting double-digit amounts for Washington four days before a storm tracked to the south and no snow fell. On Monday, the FV3 was predicting double-digit totals for a storm on Saturday in the Washington region, and it now calls for little snow.

Why does it bother you so much when I post a reply to a question asked earlier in the thread?

Chris Mooney in the Washington Post:

It will be interesting to see if the AO can reach +5 for only the 17th day.

February is getting off to a mild and foggy start around the region. The low of 37 in NYC is 10 degrees above normal. There have only been 22 days since December 1st that NYC dropped below 32 degrees. This is the 5th lowest number of days on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature < 32 Dec 1 to Jan 31 Missing Count 1 2002-01-31 18 0 - 1932-01-31 18 0 2 1998-01-31 19 0 3 2016-01-31 20 0 4 2012-01-31 21 0 5 2020-01-31 22 0 - 2017-01-31 22 0

Updated for the top10 warmth in January 2020. 1....2020...EWR...9...NYC...9...LGA....7...JFK...6...BDR...3....ISP...6

This was the 9th warmest January at EWR and NYC. LGA finished 7th warmest. January temperature departures since 2010 EWR....7 out of 11 warmer NYC.....6 out of 11 colder LGA.....7 out of 11 warmer ...........EWR....NYC....LGA 2020....+7.1...+6.5. .+6.0 2019....+0.3....-0.1...+0.3 2018....-0.7....-0.9....-1.5 2017...+6.2...+5.4....+6.8 2016...+1.7....+1.9...+2.7 2015...-3.1.....-2.7......-3.1 2014....-4.5.....-4.0....-4.2 2013....+3.8....+2.5...+2.9 2012....+5.4...+4.7....+4.6 2011....-2.1.....-2.9.....-1.0 2010...+0.8....-0.1.....+0.1

At the very least, this could be the first year the AO reaches +4 in January and February since 1989. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

February 2007 won the wasted cold award. Our one big storm on Valentine’s Day turned into an ice fest. February 2017 was much more productive for snowfall at over 10 degrees warmer. Goes to show the importance of the right storm track. Islip February 2007....27.1....-5.7....4.2” February 2017....37.8....+5.0...14.7”

The Pacific Jet has been relentless.

Very close. It was the 6th warmest. Same for Albany. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Jan 30 Missing Count 1 1932-01-30 42.8 0 2 1950-01-30 41.8 0 3 1933-01-30 41.3 0 4 2006-01-30 41.2 0 5 1937-01-30 40.4 0 6 2020-01-30 40.1 0 7 1913-01-30 39.5 0 8 2007-01-30 39.3 0 9 1998-01-30 39.2 0 10 2017-01-30 39.0 0 Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Jan 30 Missing Count 1 1933-01-30 35.6 0 2 1932-01-30 35.1 0 3 1937-01-30 33.9 0 4 1913-01-30 33.6 0 5 1906-01-30 32.9 0 6 2020-01-30 32.5 0 7 1950-01-30 31.9 0 8 1890-01-30 31.7 0 9 2017-01-30 31.5 0 10 2006-01-30 31.4 0

Euro is +10 or warmer around the region for the 1st week of February.

NYC is currently the 11th warmest December 1st to January 30th. This is the 5th year since 2012 with a top 15 warmest finish. The years were 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2020. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 30 Missing Count 1 2016-01-30 42.6 0 2 1932-01-30 42.3 0 3 2002-01-30 42.1 0 4 2007-01-30 40.7 0 5 1950-01-30 40.5 0 6 2012-01-30 40.2 0 7 1995-01-30 39.9 0 - 1913-01-30 39.9 0 8 1933-01-30 39.7 0 9 1937-01-30 39.3 0 10 1998-01-30 39.1 0 11 2020-01-30 38.7 0 - 1999-01-30 38.7 0 - 1991-01-30 38.7 0 12 1890-01-30 38.6 0 13 1983-01-30 38.5 0 - 1949-01-30 38.5 0 - 1906-01-30 38.5 0 14 1975-01-30 38.4 0 15 2017-01-30 38.3 0 16 2013-01-30 38.2 0

The publication of this paper proved to be very timely.

This was a great tweet. I have been saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us.

Figures that we would get such an extreme Arctic reversal pattern going into January. Last year featured new records for positive 500 mb height anomalies over Alaska and a small region north of Greenland. This January had one of the strongest +EPO/ +AO combinations that we have seen this time of year.