bluewave

So far the main impact on temperatures have been muted highs. This is the first April 1-13 at Newark not to reach 70 since 2009. Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 13 Missing Count 2020-04-13 69 1 2019-04-13 80 0 2018-04-13 84 0 2017-04-13 84 0 2016-04-13 80 0 2015-04-13 71 0 2014-04-13 83 0 2013-04-13 85 0 2012-04-13 71 0 2011-04-13 87 0 2010-04-13 92 0 2009-04-13 68 0

These big spring -NAO drops have become common since 2012. +NAO winter followed by strong spring blocking when the sun returns to the Arctic.

You know it must be spring when the models correct stronger with the -EPO and -NAO. New run Old run

Models did a nice job with the 50 mph sustained winds at the coast.

Pretty good forecast. Peak gust on LI of 66 and 68 in Westchester so far. That 82 mph gust was with the gravity wave from Delaware into Ocean County NJ.

Looks like 82 mph is the maximum gust so far.

Numerous reports of downed trees with the wind gusts over 60 mph.

61 mph gust at Islip and 66 at Orient.

Gusting to 76 mph now just south of Long Island.

Portion of a roof blown off in Cape May.

Gusting to 74 mph in Ocean County.

Gusting to 68 mph in Westchester.

70+ gusts moving into Southern NJ now.

Wind gust to 79 mph in Delaware.

JFK is sustained at 36 and gusting to 51 mph.

Winds beginning to pick up around the area now. Sustained at 31 and gusting to 44 mph at JFK. Strongest winds expected this afternoon.

The record GOM SST’s are also boosting the energy available to this system.

The Euro and the GFS MOS both have sustained winds near the coast around 50 mph. So the gradient alone would produce gusts from 60-70 mph. The Euro has a low topped convection which could mix down 70+.

When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+.

Pretty impressive to see the NAM wind gust guidance come in at 70 mph or higher.

Good model agreement on a near record April LLJ for Monday. Short term meso models should provide guidance on how much convection is able to develop. Stronger convection would mix down a portion of these winds from aloft. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off By 18Z Monday guidance shows a southerly 850 mb LLJ of 90-100kts! GEFS ensemble guidance shows v (southerly) component of the jet at 5-6 standard deviations above normal.

Portions of Maine set a new April low pressure record.

Just had a few snowflakes here in SW Suffolk.

Interior portions of the area could see a wet snow squall tonight. Midlevel lapse rates will be near record levels for April.

Some of the highest gusts reported right along the Jersey Shore.