bluewave

He needs to apply post processing to remove the ECMWF overestimation bias of the wind gusts. If he can’t, then he probably shouldn’t post those wind gust maps for the general public. It’s something that they have worked out in Europe. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2014/13777-improving-wind-gust-and-precipitation-form-forecasts-post-processing-ecmwf-data.pdf ECMWF model overestimates wind gusts Forecaster data is based on ECMWF model output => postprocessing removes or decreases the positive bias (NOTE: ECMWF data is a 3-hourly maximum wind gust)

There are two things that are usually off with the Euro products from weather.us, weathermodels.com, and weatherbell model maps. The wind gusts are almost always too high compared other guidance. The other guidance gust products seem closer to what you would expect from the soundings. The other issue is that those maps unrealistically drop NYC temperatures with snow cover during the winter. We can remember all those false -10 to -15 readings for NYC several winters back. It would probably be helpful to have someone here that works for ECMWF and ask them about these issues directly. Whether it’s an issue with the model or how some venders process the data.

Here it is...

UKMET did the same. So onto the 12z Euro. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

Numerous new highest low temperatures for the month of July across the region. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2019 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 1 2 2019 61 0 - 2012 61 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2008 66 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 1 - 2008 68 0 2 2019 67 0 - 1994 67 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 66 0 2 2020 65 1 - 2019 65 0 - 2015 65 0 - 1970 65 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2019 64 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 64 0 2 2020 63 1 - 1994 63 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 1 - 2019 64 0 - 1994 64 0 Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 57 2 2 2019 54 1 - 2013 54 0 - 2012 54 9 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 0 2 2019 60 0 - 1931 60 0 - 1897 60 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 58 1 2 2019 54 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 1 2 2011 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0

Farmingdale set a new record for 75° or warmer July minimums. They actually had 1 more day than LGA. The magnitude of the record over the previous year was much more impressive than the new LGA 80° minimum record. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2020 15 1 2 2013 7 0 - 2010 7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2010 19 0 2 2016 17 0 - 2013 17 0 3 1999 16 0 4 2020 14 1

These may be the warmest SSTs on record south of Long Island for so early in the morning. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 0950 75 20/ 10/ 12 1009.0 3/ 6 20 S Fire Island 0950 81 50/ 16/ 19 1008.5 4/ 4 Great South Bay 0930 72 40/ 10/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 0950 72 78 360/ 17/ 21 1009.6 3/ 6 15 E Barnegat Li 0926 79 N/A 3/ 7 Hudson Canyon 0950 80

That was 1954 with Carol, Edna, and Hazel.

Carol was the most recent hurricane to hit Eastern LI snd SNE and still be almost purely tropical. The rapid forward motion didn’t allow for that much time north of Hatteras. Coming just after the peak SSTs of the season in late August probably helped also. http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2013/09/01/hurricane-carol-the-monster-of-1954/ Hurricane Carol is widely viewed to be the “most tropical” of hurricanes to hit Connecticut. What’s meant by that is that while the storm was likely going extratropical transition – Carol was the most purely tropical of the storms to strike Connecticut. Here’s one example of that – take a look at this picture taken from the old Griswold Hotel in Groton near the mouth of the Thames River. The storm had a classic “eye” and the precipitation distribution from the storm – both east and west of the storm track – was relatively symmetrical. That’s very unusual for a landfalling New England hurricane!

3rd place for July 90° days at 10. The average dew point near 70° is the 2nd highest. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 13 0 2 2002 11 0 - 1999 11 0 - 1983 11 0 - 1949 11 0 3 2020 10 2 - 2011 10 0

JFK was warmer than July 1999. But the onshore flow and 850s maxing our near +20 C kept the monthly max lower. So JFK can get a July average near 80° with onshore flow when the dew points are high and SSTs near 80°. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Max Temperature 1 2010 80.7 101 2 2011 79.8 103 3 2013 79.5 100 4 2020 79.3 97 5 2019 78.8 99 6 1999 78.7 102 - 1993 78.7 101 7 2016 78.6 98 - 1983 78.6 100 - 1949 78.6 98 8 2015 78.4 95 - 2012 78.4 99 9 1994 78.1 93 10 2002 77.8 99

Pretty unusual that a local station could get a record number of 95° days without going above 97°. I guess it goes to the stuck weather patterns since 2010 allowing the maximum highs repeat in such a narrow range. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Max Temperature 1 2020 12 97 2 1999 11 101 3 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100

3rd consecutive July with stations in the Northeast recording a top 5 warmest July. 2020 2019 http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2019/08/01/index.html 2018 http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2018/08/02/index.html

Portions of Westchester CO closing in on their longest streak for not dropping below 62°. Like all our other stations, notice how many of the highest numbers occurred since 2010. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 62 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 44 1988-08-18 2 40 2020-07-29 3 37 2019-08-07 4 33 2018-08-22 - 33 1980-08-15 - 33 1967-08-10 5 32 2013-07-24 6 30 2016-08-02 7 29 1983-08-11 8 28 2011-08-11

Right at the top of the list for July 90° and 95° days. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 18 0 2020 18 2 2 1999 17 0 3 2016 15 0 - 2013 15 0 4 2019 14 0 - 2012 14 0 - 2011 14 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2020 11 2 - 1999 11 0 2 2012 7 0 - 1955 7 0 3 2013 6 0 - 2010 6 0 - 2002 6 0 - 1991 6 0 - 1966 6 0 4 2019 5 0

5th longest streak for LGA not dropping below 70°. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 34 2006-08-10 2 32 1980-08-15 3 29 2018-08-19 4 28 2010-07-30 5 26 2020-07-28

Long Island is getting the dew points which used to be normal for Ocean City, MD before 2010. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Third consecutive July with such high temperatures centered near the Northeast. People used to head for New England to beat the summer heat. Now they need to go further up into Canada for relief.

LGA was our only major station to sneak in a 100° in last July. But this is the 2nd year in a row for SNE. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 97 3 2019 100 0 Time Series Summary for PROVIDENCE, RI - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 100 3 2019 96 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2020 99 3 2019 100 0

Notice how many top 10 warmest 80°Julys we have had since 2010. Even a place on Long Island like FRG is having one. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.8 3 - 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2019 81.5 0 4 2013 81.2 0 5 2016 81.1 0 6 1955 80.9 0 7 1966 80.8 0 8 2006 80.7 0 9 1994 80.6 0 10 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2020 80.8 3 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 80.6 3 2 2010 79.7 0

This may be the first year that snowstorms and 100° temperatures missed us to the north.

We had 40/40 winters and now an 80/10 July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 80.5 4 MONTH TO DATE 10.07

Who would have thought that FRG could challenge EWR forJuly average temperature. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 80.3 4 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 80.5 4

Getting close to 100° now in SE New England. PROVIDENCE MOSUNNY 99 67 35 SW14 29.73F HX 103

Yeah, they were just to our NW during peak heating yesterday. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 0218 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2020 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 98 SET IN 1941.