bluewave

Flooding in the usual low spots around Long Beach. The first scene below is Laurelton Blvd and Park. The second one is on Lido Blvd in front of the firehouse.

Station Number: NY-NS-16 Station Name: Massapequa 0.9 SSW Observation Date 9/10/2020 8:55 AM Submitted 9/10/2020 9:05 AM Total Precip Amount 5.41 in. Notes numerous water rescues Taken at registered location Yes Snow Information New Snow Depth NA New Snow Water Equivalent NA Total Snow Depth NA Total Snow Water Equivalent NA Duration Information Precipitation Began -- Precipitation Ended -- Heavy Precip Began -- Heavy Precip Lasted -- Duration Time Accuracy -- Additional Information Additional Data Recorded No Submitted 9/10/2020 9:05 AM Flooding Unusual

The Pt Lookout wunderground site has 6.38”. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYPOINT4 Precipitation 6.38 in

I am getting a break now here also. The back lawn was completely flooded with several inches of water. It has finally gone down. News12 is reporting that LB has delayed the start of school for several hours due to road flooding. https://twitter.com/News12LI?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Long Beach schools call for 2-hour delay due to street flooding Posted: Sep 10, 2020 8:00 AM EDTUpdated: Sep 10, 2020 8:11 AM EDT This morning's rain has caused some flooding in Long Beach, where the school district has called at least a two-hour delay due to impassable roads. The district says it will be reassessing the situation at 8:30 a.m. to see if the roads have cleared and will give an update. In video taken in Long Beach, roads are seen completely under water. Anyone heading out this morning is asked to try to avoid any flooded roadways, because it can be hard to tell just how deep the water really is. Meanwhile, in Seaford, St. William The Abbot School has canceled classes for grades 4,7, and 8 due to extensive flooding.

I am in SW Suffolk and Wantagh is the nearest station to my west. They are currently up to 4.52”. This is the heaviest rainfall event in such a short time there since 9-10-15.

4.08” at the Wantagh mesonet now.

3.80” now at the Wantagh Mesonet. This is the heaviest rainfall in under 2 hours here in SW Suffolk in at least 4 years.

Wantagh mesonet at 3.13” now. 2.31 of that fell in the last hour. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want

Torrential downpours along the South Shore.Wantagh mesonet just picked up 1.05” in the last 15 minutes. Total so far up to 2.06”. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want 6 hours: 2.06″

Record moisture instead of heat to go with the near record WAR for September.

With the exception of the super El Niño in 15-16 and March 18, the anomalous NEPAC Ridge has told the story of the winter. 13-14 and 14-15 were cold and snowy as the ridge set up over NW Canada. 16-17 and 17-18 were warm and snowy as the ridge location pulled back to the Aleutians. The last 2 winters were warm and nearly snowless as the ridge locked in just north of Hawaii. It’s no coincidence that my favorite snowstorms since 12-13 were in January 16 and March 18 as we finally got a -NAO/-AO pattern.

South Shore coastal sections missed out on the heaviest of the March snows in 2019. So they had two consecutive well below normal snowfall seasons. But they also did much better than the NYC area from 2013 to 2018. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 1 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 4.8 1 2019-04-30 20.5 0 2018-04-30 40.9 0 2017-04-30 30.2 0 2016-04-30 32.8 0 2015-04-30 50.3 0 2014-04-30 57.4 0 2013-04-30 26.1 0

The bar is set pretty low. This was the first time that NYC had two consecutive met winters (DJF) under 5”. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 0 10 1989-1990 5.0 0

The dust bowl was a localized rather than global event. The heat and drought were amplified by the poor land use practices which lead to the extreme soil erosion. The modern localized summer cooler high temperatures in the corn belt are also a result of farming practices. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/383102 Abstract We provide a new and more complete analysis of the origins of the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, one of the most severe environmental crises in North America in the twentieth century. Severe drought and wind erosion hit the Great Plains in 1930 and lasted through 1940. There were similar droughts in the 1950s and 1970s, but no comparable level of wind erosion. We explain why. The prevalence of small farms in the 1930s limited private solutions for controlling the downwind externalities associated with wind erosion. Drifting sand from unprotected fields damaged neighboring farms. Small farmers cultivated more of their land and were less likely to invest in erosion control than larger farmers. Soil conservation districts, established by the government after 1937, helped coordinate erosion control. This “unitized” solution for collective action is similar to that used in other natural resource/environmental settings. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. https://news.wisc.edu/irrigated-farming-in-wisconsins-central-sands-cools-the-regions-climate/ New research finds that irrigated farms within Wisconsin’s vegetable-growing Central Sands region significantly cool the local climate compared to nearby rain-fed farms or forests. Irrigation dropped maximum temperatures by one to three degrees Fahrenheit on average while increasing minimum temperatures up to four degrees compared to unirrigated farms or forests. In all, irrigated farms experienced a three- to seven-degree smaller range in daily temperatures compared to other land uses. These effects persisted throughout the year.

This is a great example of what high enough snowfall rates can do.

It’s easy to lose track of all the new extremes in recent years.

Another warmer than average start to September across the area. The first week came in at +2.3 to +4.1. EWR...+2.7 NYC...+2.3 LGA....+4.1 JFK....+2.5 ISP.....+3.8 BDR...+4.1

More record breaking 500 mb heights.

We had several more 70° minimums since the start of September. So our local sites are still moving up on the list. We could add a few more this week as the higher dew points return. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 1973 62 0 2 2011 59 0 3 2005 58 0 4 2010 57 0 5 2020 55 116 - 1993 55 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 1906 61 0 2 2005 60 0 3 2020 57 116 4 2015 56 0 5 2018 55 0 - 2010 55 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2018 78 0 2 2005 77 0 3 2016 73 0 4 2020 71 116 - 2012 71 0 5 2015 69 0 - 2010 69 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2016 55 0 2 2015 53 0 3 2010 51 0 4 2018 49 0 5 2020 48 116 - 2012 48 0 - 1983 48 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2018 41 0 2 2010 36 0 - 1980 36 0 3 2020 35 116 - 2016 35 0 4 2013 34 0 - 1999 34 0

First time since 2012 that the 5 day NSIDC extent dropped below 4 million sq km. Also the first 5 year period with 3 years below 4.2 million sq km. 9-6-20.......3.928 September 5-day date 3.387 2012-09-17 4.155 2007-09-18 4.165 2016-09-10 4.192 2019-09-18

Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to our north and east. So no 90° potential for the foreseeable future. The last time Newark didn’t reach 90° in September was 2011 and 2012 for LGA.

A recent study was able to determine just how extreme the Bering wintertime sea ice low in 2018 was.

Numerous stations across PA also had their warmest summer.

It would be really odd if LGA didn’t have another 90° day this year. LGA never reached 30 days before without any 90° days in the spring or fall. LGA is currently in 4th place with 34 days reaching 90°. LGA finished JJA with the 2nd highest number of 90° days behind 2010. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season 2010 1 2 12 18 11 4 0 48 2018 0 4 4 10 16 4 0 38 2002 2 0 5 14 13 1 0 35 2020 0 0 5 19 10 0 M 34 1991 0 4 9 10 9 2 0 34 2016 0 3 1 15 10 3 0 32 1983 0 0 5 11 8 7 0 31 2005 0 0 7 10 10 3 0 30 1953 0 1 7 10 9 3 0 30 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Season 2010 12 18 11 41 2020 5 19 10 34

According to Brian B, the US record for earliest measurable snowfall after a 100° was 5 days at Rapid City, SD in September 2000. So Denver could potentially see their latest 100° and then one of their earliest measurable snowfalls. 2000-09-17 101 53 77.0 16.8 0 12 T 0.0 0 2000-09-18 93 64 78.5 18.8 0 14 T 0.0 0 2000-09-19 65 48 56.5 -2.7 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 2000-09-20 61 43 52.0 -6.7 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2000-09-21 66 41 53.5 -4.8 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2000-09-22 46 34 40.0 -17.8 25 0 0.27 0.5 0 First/Last Summary for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2019 07-19 (2019) 101 09-02 (2019) 100 44 2002 08-16 (2002) 100 08-16 (2002) 100 0 1962 08-10 (1962) 100 08-14 (1962) 100 3 1876 07-06 (1876) 101 08-12 (1876) 100 36 1969 08-08 (1969) 100 08-08 (1969) 100 0 First/Last Summary for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1961 05-13 (1961) 6.4 09-03 (1961) 4.2 112 1962 04-30 (1962) 0.1 09-08 (1962) 0.7 130 1974 04-29 (1974) 0.2 09-12 (1974) 1.8 135 1989 04-30 (1989) 3.7 09-12 (1989) 2.3 134 1993 04-24 (1993) 1.0 09-13 (1993) 5.4 141 1971 04-22 (1971) 4.5 09-16 (1971) 2.7 146