bluewave

Root for that squall to hold together so some areas get their first trace for February.

The mid 20’s snowfall season has become a thing of the past here on Long Island. Every season since 2010 has been much above or much below average. This all or nothing snowfall pattern became more common since the 93-94 season. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 64 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 BNL snowfall https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

First two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a NESIS cat 1 snowstorm. The article notes the last two years as 1997-1998 and 1998-1999. But some may have considered the March 1999 heavy wet snow event as a NESIS 1. So we would have to go back to the early 1990’s. A very extreme benchmark storm track shut down after March 2018. All our storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression since then. Winter Storm Tracks 2019-20 The arrows represent the tracks of significant winter storms so far this season. The shaded areas are estimates of total snowfall this season.

We can’t even get a cold winter anymore without long duration extreme high latitude blocking. The cold 09-10 and 10-11 winters required the record -AO /-NAO blocking. Our cold 13-14 and 14-15 winters were all about the record -EPO/+PNA blocking. The default pattern in 11-12, 12-13, 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, and 19-20 has been warm to record warm.

Pretty amazing temperature jump last 5 winters above 1981-2010 averages. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.7 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.8 39.4 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 1981-2010...37.5..32.6..35.3.....35.1 ....................+3.0..+2.6...+4.4.....+3.3 https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf

This winter is another example of our climate becoming more subtropical. Single digit snowfall is typical for North Carolina. Average temperatures near 40 degrees are normal for Richmond, VA. The average July temperature last summer near 80 degrees is also common for the Richmond, VA area. Same goes for the record number of 75 degree dew points last few summers at places like JFK. Such a high number of days are common for that region also.

NYC needs 0.1 to get out of 1st place for the earliest end to the measurable snowfall season on record. 1-18-2020....2.1....so far 1-19-2002....3.0 2-01-1878....2.0 2-12-2012....0.2 2-12-1925....1.3 2-15-1986....0.1

This winter will finish near the bottom of the list for winter hours below freezing.

Yeah, this was the second winter in a row that an area of record SST’s somewhere west to date line had a huge impact.

I think the inability of the El Niño to couple last winter really threw them off. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

The Met Office seasonal model did a nice job picking up on the winter pattern back in the fall.

This was the warmest 12-22 to 2-24 period on record at 40.1 degrees in NYC. It was also the 5th lowest snowfall total at 2.3”. Last year over this period was 10th lowest at 3.6”. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Feb 24 Missing Count 1 2020-02-24 40.1 0 2 1932-02-24 39.8 0 3 2006-02-24 39.6 0 4 2017-02-24 39.5 0 5 2012-02-24 39.3 0 - 1998-02-24 39.3 0 6 2002-02-24 39.2 0 7 1990-02-24 38.8 0 8 1937-02-24 38.7 0 9 1933-02-24 38.6 0 10 1950-02-24 38.5 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 22 to Feb 24 Missing Count 1 1998-02-24 0.5 0 2 1919-02-24 0.8 0 3 1890-02-24 1.0 0 4 1959-02-24 1.9 0 5 2020-02-24 2.3 0 6 1990-02-24 2.4 0 7 1992-02-24 2.5 0 8 1973-02-24 2.6 0 - 1932-02-24 2.6 0 9 2002-02-24 3.5 0 10 2019-02-24 3.6 0

Philly narrowly avoided the trace of snow they got in 72-73.

This has to be one the biggest PDO reversals from December to February. The record ridge north of Hawaii and strong +EPO resulted in the big SST departure shift. One of the strongest La Niña-like patterns without out an official La Niña. This is what can happen with record SST’s from the date line to the Indian Ocean.

After the top 2 warmest Februaries on record in 2017 and 2018, we are on track for another top 10 warmest finish. There have been 7 out of 11 warmer than normal Februaries since 2010. .............EWR....NYC....LGA 2020.....+5.5...+5.0....+4.4...so far 2019....+1.4.....+0.9...+0.5 2018....+6.8....+6.7.....+7.1 2017....+7.0....+6.3.....+7.5 2016....+2.5....+2.4.....+3.1 2015....-12.0...-11.4....-11.1 2014....-4.7.....-3.7.....-4.0 2013....-0.5.....-1.4.....-0.8 2012....+5.9....+5.6....+6.1 2011....+1.8.....+0.7.....+1.2 2010....-1.4......-2.2......-1.5

Thickest frost of the season here in SW Suffolk. Temperature at 33 degrees but the there is a thick layer of frost on cars and the roofs. Almost feels like freezing rain on the cars with the dense fog until a few minutes ago.

Black ice is possible across Suffolk with dense frog and temperatures below freezing. MacArthur/ISP FOG 31 31 100 CALM 30.06F VSB 1/4 Stony Brook N/A 36 36 100 S5 N/A WCI 32 Shirley FAIR 32 30 92 CALM 30.08S FOG Mt Sinai Harb N/A N/A N/A N/A S8 N/A Westhampton CLOUDY 21 20 96 CALM 30.09S East Hampton CLOUDY 25 24 96 CALM 30.08S FOG Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 NYZ078>081-241300- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk- 516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of Suffolk County early this morning. In addition to reduced visibilities, with temperatures near or below freezing, black ice is also possible this morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Use caution on the roads early this morning and leave plenty of distance between cars, keeping in mind that any pavement that appears damp may be icy. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise.

We are a little early this year. Our lowest annual readings just above or below 10% are usually in March or April.

The 13% relative humidity at Newark is the lowest of the year. Newark Liberty FAIR 57 7 13% https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2020&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Like an early spring afternoon in the desert with deep blue skies and low humidity. Newark Liberty FAIR 57 9 14%

The SE Ridge has kept the heaviest rains to our west since late December.

The temperatures are off to the races. Newark has jumped 14 degrees in a few hours. The warm spots probably go 55-60 degrees today.

This has been the driest start to the year since 2012 for NYC and surrounding stations. My last rain event with over 1.00” was back on January 25th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Feb 23 Missing Count 2020-02-23 3.93 1 2019-02-23 6.11 0 2018-02-23 7.20 0 2017-02-23 6.77 0 2016-02-23 7.52 0 2015-02-23 7.27 0 2014-02-23 8.24 0 2013-02-23 5.30 0 2012-02-23 3.63 0 2011-02-23 6.59 0 2010-02-23 5.17 0

Mild and dry February day with a 17% relative humidity at Newark. Newark Liberty FAIR 48 5 17 SW15