bluewave

Looks like a back and forth pattern into early March before we eventually shift into fulll-time spring mode by mid-March. Feb 24 to Mar 3 Mar 3 to 10 Mar 10 to 17

Since the governments of the world can’t get their acts together, it’s going to come down to the insurance and mortgage companies to enforce climate policies on the general public. Instead of taking a coordinated global approach, this will be done in an uncoordinated piecemeal way. So the governments are essentially punting the ball to the private sector and telling them just to do whatever you have to in order to stay solvent in the face of increasing extreme weather events. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/fed-chair-warns-high-risk-185451042.html Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned that mortgages will be difficult—if not impossible—to secure in some high-risk areas in the future. As storms and wildfires pummel certain areas of the country, causing insurance rates to skyrocket, particularly in Florida and California, the chairman foresees a day when many areas will have turned into mortgage deserts. “Both banks and insurance companies are pulling out of coastal areas or areas where there are a lot of fires,” he said at Tuesday’s congressional hearing What that is going to mean is that if you fast-forward 10 or 15 years, there are going to be regions of the country where you can’t get a mortgage,” he told the banking committee. The dystopian vision of large swaths of the country where mortgages are simply not available was one conjured up when Democratic Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota asked about insurers that have pulled out of high-risk areas such as California and Florida, and what that will mean for people trying to get mortgages In the question and answer portion of the hearing, Smith said her constituents are struggling with a 40% increase in insurance rates in the past seven years, which she attributes to climate change and extreme weather events. According to climate risk analysis firm First Street, between now and 2055, insurance premiums are projected to skyrocket in many areas, including in Miami, jumping 322% from current levels, followed by Jacksonville, FL (226%), Tampa, FL (213%), New Orleans (196%), and Sacramento, CA (137%). She went on to call attention to a recent analysis by First Street, which warned that $1.4 trillion will be shaved off the value of U.S. real estate within the next years due to this domino effect “What is going to happen when insurance becomes unaffordable or—in some parts of the country— literally unavailable?” she asked the chairman. “What impact will that have on the mortgage markets?” Powell admitted that banks would likely make mortgages unavailable in parts of the country, and even pull up stakes entirely, leaving behind mortgage and bank deserts. “The risk is that [mortgages and banks] just won’t be there. People won’t be able to get them. That is really the issue,” he said. There won’t be ATMs, the banks won’t have branches,” he went on. “That’s a possibility coming up down the road. The banks won’t stay there and keep making loans in the face of disaster. The insurance companies won’t continue writing policies. They can cancel those policies every year.” Who pays the price? As for the onus of the costs of a disaster befalling a property, “that will fall on homeowners and residents, but also state and local governments,” Powell told the committee. “You see that happening now,” he said. “States are stepping in where private insurance is going away. They want those areas to remain prosperous. It certainly will have significant economic consequences.”

I think it was more of an early indicator of the storm tracks we were dealing with usually emerges early on during La Ninas.

At least we had an early heads up in December with many stations going under 4” which has been a reliable indicator of below normal La Niña seasonal snowfall.

Stop making stuff up. If you are so bothered by someone pointing out that this was an average temperature winter prior to the last 10 years than you are just being overly sensitive. You are the only one that has been complaining in this thread and clogging it up with OT posts.

This is why I keep it strictly to the numbers and statistics and provide perspectives. The esrl site that I post data from allows you to set the climate normals reference period. NASA only uses the 1951-1980 reference period. it’s also why I like to rely on the rankings more since they are fixed. In the rankings below you can see how a station like ISP falls right in the middle of the pack of all the winters. The 33.0° average temperature is a -1.0 in 1991-2020 climate normals with 29 winters being colder and 33 warmer. 33.0° was an average winter as recently as 1981-2010 climate normals and would finish at 0.0°. So I agree with Rjay that it’s an accomplishment of sorts just to be able to get one winter that would be considered average in the past. But it wouldn’t be considered cold compared to winters as recently as 14-15. If there is any disappointment it’s in regard to the continuing below average snowfall which has been a common theme since 18-19 with only a few exceptions like 20-21 and January 22 further east on Long Island. But it was still impressive that we could extend so many small snowstorms into over 20 days of 1 inch snow cover. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1976-1977 27.0 0 2 1977-1978 27.1 0 3 1967-1968 27.4 0 4 1969-1970 29.2 0 5 2002-2003 29.3 0 6 1993-1994 29.4 0 7 1968-1969 29.8 0 8 2014-2015 30.0 0 - 1963-1964 30.0 2 9 1978-1979 30.1 0 10 2010-2011 30.4 0 - 1964-1965 30.4 0 11 2003-2004 30.7 0 - 2000-2001 30.7 0 - 1966-1967 30.7 0 12 1985-1986 31.3 0 13 1995-1996 31.4 0 14 2013-2014 31.5 0 - 1970-1971 31.5 0 15 1980-1981 31.7 0 16 2004-2005 31.9 0 - 1987-1988 31.9 0 17 2009-2010 32.1 0 18 1981-1982 32.3 0 - 1965-1966 32.3 0 19 2008-2009 32.4 0 - 1986-1987 32.4 0 - 1975-1976 32.4 0 20 1989-1990 32.9 0 21 2024-2025 33.0 5 - 1992-1993 33.0 0 - 1983-1984 33.0 0 22 1988-1989 33.1 0 23 1984-1985 33.4 0 24 1979-1980 33.6 0 25 1973-1974 33.8 0 26 1999-2000 33.9 0 27 2020-2021 34.1 0 28 2017-2018 34.3 0 - 2007-2008 34.3 0 29 2005-2006 34.4 0 30 2018-2019 34.5 0 31 1991-1992 34.6 0 32 2006-2007 34.7 0 33 1974-1975 34.8 0 - 1972-1973 34.8 0 34 1971-1972 35.0 0 35 2021-2022 35.1 0 36 2012-2013 35.2 0 37 1996-1997 35.5 0 38 1982-1983 35.6 0 39 1990-1991 36.2 0 40 1998-1999 36.5 0 41 1994-1995 36.8 0 42 2016-2017 36.9 0 43 2019-2020 37.4 0 44 2023-2024 37.8 0 45 2011-2012 38.3 0 46 1997-1998 38.5 0 47 2001-2002 38.6 0 48 2022-2023 38.7 0 49 2015-2016 39.1

Weather records and statistics are an integral part of the online weather and climate community. So maybe I was incorrect to give you the benefit of the doubt in my comment about how quickly people normalize the warmer weather. Sounds more like you are in favor of censoring ideas which in some way don’t match your worldview.

Yeah, it’s been a while not getting a 60° day relative to the last several winters. This was the first time since 2021 with no over 52° days in NYC between 1-1 and 2-23. It’s tough to go over 60° with -5 AO patterns like we had back in 2021 also. If we didn’t get that -AO this month we would have probably had 2 or 3 days reaching 60° already this month.

We had 2 days reach 60° back in December.

That’s what makes this forum great. We can all come on and discuss what type of weather we like. I will have to side with Rjay on this one. Would rather have a few record snowstorms and warmth like 15-16 and 16-17 rather than near average historical temperatures and well below normal snowfall. Even if we had extended snowcover. Obviously a 95-96 package with great snowstorms, extended cold, and extended snowcover would be optimal but is harder to come by these days.

The only time since 2000 was in 2004. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending number of 60° days or warmer 2024-2025 2 2023-2024 6 0 2022-2023 7 0 2021-2022 8 0 2020-2021 3 0 2019-2020 4 0 2018-2019 4 0 2017-2018 9 0 2016-2017 9 0 2015-2016 16 0 2014-2015 2 0 2013-2014 5 0 2012-2013 3 0 2011-2012 5 0 2010-2011 4 0 2009-2010 1 0 2008-2009 5 0 2007-2008 6 0 2006-2007 3 0 2005-2006 5 0 2004-2005 2 0 2003-2004 0 0

I think the most impressive feat we had this winter was over 20 days with an inch of snow on the ground in NYC without a 4” snowstorm and only 12.9” of snow. Just an enough small snowfall events spaced out enough to keep a wintry look to the ground for over 20 days. And also no significant cold as NYC only dropped to 10°. Very mid range temperatures with fewer days over 60°and no days under 10°.

Because I have a deep respect for this audience and they have wealth of knowledge that makes them able to fully understand the topic being discussed. You are making gross oversimplifications of what I have said that leads me to believe you have another motive. But this is something that you are going to have to deal with on your own.

I was discussing this potential last October in the La Niña thread so it wasn’t that much of a surprise to me. But also noted that there were differences to what happened in winters like this in the past. This turned to be the case with some of the lowest snowfall on record this winter with similar circumstances in the past.

This was close to an average winter for temperatures based on the climate we had before 2010. So pointing this out isn’t factually incorrect. If you think this was a cold winter based on the 1950s to 1980s climate era then you probably didn’t have to wait out on the bus stop for school in that era during some of those epic winters for cold. The reason I brought up age is that I have seen what actual cold winters were like. And can understand how the younger generation could see this as being a cold winter. I have no problem with this back and forth. AGW is more a political term and I seldom discuss politics since it’s such a polarizing feature in the modern global society. So we can substitute a more neutral term like warming climate. Since thermometers have no political affiliations. So by stating the obvious that we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months and only 1 top 10 coldest since 2010 is more about awareness. The key to awareness of any topic is accurately measuring it and then making comparisons to earlier measurements. So it’s all about perspectives and not politics. My motivation is all about empowering people with the data so they can make informed decisions in their own life. But perspectives are key in making these decisions. Plus we are living though historic times with regard to the climate and not pointing this out wouldn’t make sense.

For the simple reason that moving 30 year temperature averages were never designed to be used in rapidly warming climate. It would be more correct to set our temperature departures to the 1951-1980 climate normals like NASA and other agencies do for global temperatures. Since the constantly updating baseline every 10 years lowers the bar for what is considered cold. Don’t you want it to be considered cold by what the actual temperature is rather than an artificially lower standard? Imagine if Major League Baseball wanted more home runs so they decided to move the fences in much closer to home plate. So it was easier to hit more home runs. This is what you are doing by making it easier to get a cold departure. When we had an actual cold winter month like February 2015 it was cold by any 30 year average in the last 100 years. So it wasn’t an artificial cold month like we have been seeing in recent times. Most people aren’t a fan of lowering standards to achieve a goal.

We don’t need anymore threads than we have. The general monthly thread contains all the discussions about temperatures, patterns, and general precipitation amounts. Then the storm threads for individual storm information like what each model is showing for a given storm system. You can’t discuss temperatures or precipitation without putting into historical context. It’s almost as if you are trying to sweep things under the rug because you don’t like the outcome.

I think the issue is that you keep putting up so much resistance to discussing the objective measures of ranking and describing the temperatures this winter. You would think on a weather forum that there would be more interest than just the subjective description of the weather and climate. In a pure subjective sense even our warmest winters felt cold since we frequently needed a winter coat. Same goes for some of coolest summers which many people still wore a bathing suit and went swimming. But we go beyond those generalities and are more precise on a weather forum. So it’s fine to point out that the only reason this winter will finish below average was due to the goal posts being shifted every 10 years making the bar for a cold winter lower than it used to be.

I will give them the benefit of the doubt and just chalk it up to how quickly we normalize things like a warming climate and tend not to pay attention to the context that statistics provides. https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/tweets-tell-scientists-how-quickly-we-normalize-unusual-weather study, published Feb. 25 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicates that people have short memories when it comes to what they consider “normal” weather. On average, people base their idea of normal weather on what has happened in just the past two to eight years. This disconnect with the historical climate record may obscure the public’s perception of climate change. “There’s a risk that we’ll quickly normalize conditions we don’t want to normalize,” said lead author Frances C. Moore, an assistant professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. “We are experiencing conditions that are historically extreme, but they might not feel particularly unusual if we tend to forget what happened more than about five years ago.

Also remember that the other stations don’t have all the dense tree growth covering their sensors. This is why NYC had the coldest departures relative to the other stations using the current 1991-2020 warmest climate normals. Other local sites that have open exposure matching the regulations had even smaller cold departures. So when compared to 1951-1980, 1961-1990, and 1971-2000 would be even warmer. EWR….-0.9° NYC…..-2.0° LGA…...-1.8° JFK……+0.7° HPN…..-1.4° ISP……..-1.0°

When the overall climate was much colder along with the Great Lakes, NYC and other sites near the coast would regularly drop close to 0° with westerly flow Arctic outbreaks crossing the Great Lakes. This was a usual occurrence between 1976 and 1994. This winter experienced some of the strongest westerly flow crossing the Great Lakes since that much colder era. So we can say all of the warming factors combined added around 10° degrees and not just 0.5° degrees on the coldest days this winter. Since the coldest temperature this winter in NYC only fell to 10°.

I think that’s probably since you are younger and haven’t experienced what cold winters were like here. But I can understand it since you are comparing it to all the record warmth we have had in the winters over the last decade. But there was nothing particularly cold about this winter except for the much stronger winds driving those wind chills.

They have become very frequent in recent years. There was just one in NJ back in late December. It’s very tough to sustain any real cold these days. SMQ 2024-12-23 26 1 13.5 -19.8 51 0 0.00 2024-12-24 38 19 28.5 -4.5 36 0 0.07 2024-12-25 38 19 28.5 -4.3 36 0 0.00 2024-12-26 38 11 24.5 -8.1 40 0 0.00 2024-12-27 42 13 27.5 -4.8 37 0 T 2024-12-28 45 32 38.5 6.4 26 0 0.64 2024-12-29 65 41 53.0 21.1 12 0 0.22 2024-12-30 59 37 48.0 16.3 17 0 0.38 2024-12-31 58 27 42.5 11.0 22 0 0.44

Close to a record temperature rise for areas that were really cold this month.

People like to make jokes about the Great Lakes. But the record warmth there has been greatly moderating our Arctic outbreaks in recent years. As was the case this winter combined with the record Canadian and Hudson Bay warmth. February 2016 and 2023 were the two Arctic outbreaks which reached 0° or colder east of the Hudson and required Northerly flow down from Canada going east of the Great Lakes instead of crossing the warmer waters. In the old days we could get to near 0° with westerly flow across the more frozen Great Lakes when Canada was much colder.