bluewave

It’s been tough to bet against more westerly tracks with record WAR.

There were a group of 6z EPS tracks which were further west like the UKMET and CMC. So a highly anticipated Euro and EPS run coming up. We’ll find out if the 12z GFS was exhibiting its eastern bias.

I agree. Should be an interesting next few model runs. Remember the Euro has been underestimating the the WAR. It didn’t start showing Fred going further to our west until practically nowcast time.

The further west models merge with the small closed low in VA sooner.

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county.

This is just another example of how extreme the WAR has become. Tropical cyclones that pass within 200 miles of Bermuda usually go OTS. Henri is on track to become the first tropical cyclone to landfall west of Cape Cod. Hermine in 2004 and another weak system in 1923 were the only two storms to impact Cape Cod.

This could be one of our longer 70°+ dew point streaks. The Euro has 70°+ dew points for the rest of the month. So we are on track for our first 6 year stretch of 50 days reaching the 70° dew point mark.

Very impressive dew points from Florida into SE Canada.

The near record low multiyear ice is one of the reasons that a favorable summer for sea ice retention can’t come close to pre-2007 levels. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Multiyear ice near record low http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2021/08/Figure4a-week31-350x254.jpg Figure 4a. This graph shows the near record-low amount of multiyear ice in the Arctic as of week 31 (July 30 to August 5) of the 2021 melt season, comparing this year to the same week in previous years of the satellite record that began in 1979. Historical data through 2020 are provided by Tschudi et al., 2019a and quicklook data for 2021 by Tschudi et al., 2019b Credit: Robbie Mallett High-resolution image http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2021/08/Figure-4b-MYI-350x265.jpg Figure 4b. This graph compares the area of multiyear ice in the Arctic between 2021, 2020, and the average from 2008 to 2019 as it melts out throughout the spring and summer. The grey lines depict previous years for general comparison. The area is calculated by adding all pixels in the Arctic that are older than one year based on the NSIDC ice age data product, and multiplying by the area per pixel of each grid cell. Historical data through 2020 are provided by Tschudi et al., 2019a and quicklook data for 2021 by Tschudi et al., 2019b Credit: Robbie Mallett High-resolution image While the multiyear ice that advected into the Beaufort Sea has helped to stabilize ice loss in that region, multiyear ice for 2021 in the Arctic as a whole is at a record low. Based on ice age classification, the proportion of multiyear ice in the Arctic during the first week of August is at 1.6 million square kilometers (618,000 million square miles). The loss of the multiyear ice since the early 1980s started in earnest after the 2007 record low minimum sea ice cover that summer, and while there have been slight recoveries since then, it has not recovered to values seen in the 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s. This loss of the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic Ocean is one of the reasons why the summer sea ice extent has not recovered, even when weather conditions are favorable for ice retention.

Several variables for the models to decipher. How strong will Henri get? 12z Euro looks too weak again with forecast while the UKMET is too strong. All models handle the upper low over the Delmarva differently. Some are closed and others more open. The CMC almost looks like a middle ground between the various guidance today. We may not know an exact track until we see how much deepening occurs east of the Carolinas and where the upper low ends up.

It does look like the UKMET pressures are too low. But the NAM with higher pressures was west also. The GFS has been very volatile from run to run. The 0z Euro was more west than 12z but the pressures were too high. The stronger EPS members were further west than the OP. So we’ll see what the 12z Euro and EPS comes up with. But this forecast may come down to the wire since these upper low capture scenarios are really complex.

South America is the latest region to experience these big weather swings.

The 75° dew point up at White Plains ties the August monthly record high for 6 am. White Plains LGT RAIN 76 75

While we got the high humidity today, the most impressive heat went to our north.

75° dew point at JFK. This is the first 6 year stretch with 10 or more days reaching the 75° dew point mark. Just another part of our more subtropical climate. Kennedy Intl CLOUDY 81 75

Just show him this…. Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum. JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change NYC max….83.0…83.2….+0.2 min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2 EWR max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9 min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0 LGA max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4 min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1 JFK max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0 min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

Looks like the Euro keeps the overrunning west and we get into the warm sector severe potential like the NAM.

The 3km NAM is further west than the 0z Euro. So we get into the warm sector severe part of Fred. Probably need to see what the 12z Euro does with the track.

Hard to believe that it has been 30 years since a hurricane maintained such solid tropical structure this far north.

In reality, we will never know for sure what the exact storm categories were at each location. But a strong trough interaction and rapid forward motion probably helped maintain intensity longer than usual. So it could have been a cat 2 around NYC and still had a cat 3 surge from earlier in the day.

Water levels with Sandy were the highest on record for NYC and Western Long Island. The storm surge peaking at high tide made the difference. 1821 had stronger winds and a greater surge. But the arrival at low tide with lower sea levels of the era resulted in lower water levels than Sandy. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep07366?proof=t%C2%A0 In summary, an inundation record covering the past ~300 years was reconstructed from sediment cores taken from New York City, NY. Deposits in the record correspond to storms known to have affected New York Harbor, including early historic storms in 1693, 1788 and 1821. Sedimentary analysis reveals only two deposits, those of Hurricane Sandy and the 1821 hurricane, with a median grain size in the sand range (>63 μm). While the Hurricane Sandy deposit was much thicker than the 1821 deposit, it had a smaller maximum grain size. This is consistent with historic accounts and SLOSH model results that suggest that the 1821 hurricane was a smaller (radius of maximum winds of 40 km) but significantly more intense storm (maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed of ~210 km/hr), compared to Hurricane Sandy with a radius of maximum winds of 160–200 km and 130 km/hr sustained winds at landfall. Sea-level rise and peak surge occurring at high tide combined to give Sandy record-breaking water levels, but the 1821 hurricane probably had a significantly larger overall storm surge. Our results indicate that extreme flood events like Hurricane Sandy are not uncommon within sedimentary records and that the true return interval for such extreme events to New York City is probably significantly shorter than current estimates.

Sandy not crossing Long Island made the storm all that much more severe around NNJ, NYC and Western LI. The record blocking and trough phase put us in the stronger RFQ for two high tide cycles. Our area got the weaker side of the 1938 hurricane since it tracked across Central Long Island up into New England. NYC also was in the RFQ (right front quadrant) with the 1821 hurricane. But that hurricane arrived at low tide.

Sandy had much more impact than the other hurricanes of the last 100 years from the Jersey Shore to Western Suffolk. The 1938 hurricane really focused its worst damage from Central and Eastern Suffolk up into New England. There was a long gap in hurricanes directly landfalling from Long Island to New England between 1893 and 1938.The period from 1938 to 1961 had a high amount of directly landfalling hurricanes on Long Island and New England. So we have seen extended periods when landfalls concentrated in certain areas. The big challenge is tying to figure out a shift before it actually occurs.

The one thing that stands out since the mid 90s is how consistent the storm tracks have been. All our tropical systems since then have made landfall first to our south before impacting our area. This was the case last year and again this year with Elsa. Fred’s remnants will impact the region this week after coming ashore in the Gulf. Sandy was one of the most extreme events in our local history making the sharp left turn into Southern NJ. Long Island and New England haven’t seen a hurricane eye cross our shoreline since Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Before that we had Belle in 1976 and all the storms from 1938 into the 1950s. The main question is why this type of hurricane track has become so rare? Maybe the WAR and blocking has become so strong, that this has forced storms more to our SW for landfalls. So it will be interesting to see when this type of hurricane track makes a return.

The interruption from earlier in the season was MJO related. Now the MJO has now come around to the more active phases for the Atlantic Basin. Last year it took until we reached the L storm for the first major hurricane.