bluewave

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/10/15/reframing-climate-change-story-human-evolutionary-success/ The narrative we’ve grown used to on this subject is one of blame, casting humanity as a virus destroying an Earth that now needs saving (from us). But there is a very different story we can tell, one that recognizes climate change not as a marker of shame but as a story of an astonishing success that has led humanity to a moment of great peril, yet also of profound possibility. This new narrative emerges from interdisciplinary studies connecting humanity’s project of civilization with Earth’s own multibillion-year project of life and evolution. The central point is that climate change is the dire but unintended result of our species’ thriving. Humans are not a greedy plague on Earth but simply the latest experiment in planetary-scale evolution. Any species that flourished to the extent we humans have would have to seek out energy sources on a massive scale — and in doing so would change the global ecosystem. It took centuries for the downsides of carbon-based fuels to become apparent. But now that we have figured that out, it’s incumbent on us to change course, and do so quickly. That’s not an anti-business argument. Nor is it even an indictment of humans’ initially developing an economy around oil, before we knew about the implications. By stripping away the self-flagellating rhetoric and reorienting the story in this way — a longer timeline, a broader canvas — new alliances in the fight become possible. Some climate change activists are already rethinking their rhetoric; they’re debating, for instance, whether to use the phrase “climate catastrophe” or “climate crisis,” recognizing that harsh rhetoric may push people not to action but to desensitization or even despair. But the narrative revision I’m talking about is far more sweeping. The first implication of a planetary-scale view of the problem is that humans shouldn’t be considered as a force set in opposition to nature. From the “blue-green bacteria” that created a breathable oxygen-rich atmosphere on to dinosaurs, grasslands and large hairy mammals, our planet has been relentlessly inventing new versions of itself. Humans, and our globe-spanning civilization, simply represent the latest round of innovation. We are who’s at-bat right now — and that’s largely an accident of fate and evolution. When it comes to living organisms changing Earth, humans are not fundamentally different or special. This has happened before. A second implication, the most contentious, is that climate change is not our fault. Don’t get me wrong: Human activity absolutely has caused the rise in temperature that our scientists are hard at work documenting — and without doubt, those who continue to drive climate change denial are deeply and profoundly worthy of blame. I mean, rather, that all human history is the attempt to harvest new forms of energy to power our cherished project of civilization. We triggered climate change by mistake when we tripped over fossil fuels as part of that long effort. It wasn’t because we are evil or unworthy. From a planetary science perspective, global-scale technological civilizations and climate change go together. Any society as successful as ours, emerging anywhere in the universe, is going to have a hard time not triggering climate change. That’s just how planets work when you harvest buckets of energy from them. Viewed that way, changing a world’s climate marks the end of your civilization’s adolescence. At that point, you then face a very strict planetary driving test. Pass it — build a long-term sustainable version of your civilization — and you can go anywhere. Fail and you might die. So, yes, we changed the atmosphere of the entire planet. Not bad for a bunch of hairless monkeys. Now we must meet the existential challenge that success has created. Thinking about climate change in the context of eons of evolution, and as a curse of success, makes the burden of guilt hovering over every individual daily action (paper towels or electric bathroom hand dryers?) seem beside the point. Once humans recognize that triggering climate change was an inevitable consequence of a civilizational project we began 10,000 years ago, it follows that combating climate change, too, must also be a collective process, requiring all the ingenuity our species can muster. By shifting from blame to possibility, people are freed to imagine climate change as a challenge full of risk andpossibility, rather than just a death sentence from accrued guilt. Many people who don’t consider themselves environmentalists get more engaged when the conversation turns to human success and capacity for innovation, I find. Skeptics don’t suddenly “convert,” but space for conversation opens up. Stressing human ingenuity in this context carries risks, for sure. Focusing on our technological prowess — on an evolutionary timeline as well as in the present — risks steering the conversation toward “solutions” like geoengineering, whose unintended consequences may well be even worse than the unintended climate change we drove with fossil fuels. The true game-changing point of the planetary perspective is to convince people we are not above the biosphere — we’re part of it. Our complex global project of civilization must be rewoven into the complex global network of life in ways that allow both to thrive, in new and as-yet-unimagined ways. Left vs. right, Democrat vs. Republican, corporate capitalism vs. socialism. All these polarities of public life and public debate were built before Earth began responding to our civilization-building efforts. Each in their own way carries the baggage of a 19th-century smokestack world whose imperatives don’t align with the urgencies and possibilities of a world in which the climate is changing. The cliche is that history repeats itself, but humanity has simply never been here before. That means we will need to invent something new. New technologies and new policies are one front in that fight, from local-scale projects protecting freshwater sources to investment strategies that ensure capital makes it quickly to technologies such as large-scale energy storage (essential for the full switch to renewal power). But stories were humanity’s first technology. For any of the new approaches to become fully deployed and fully effective, they will have to be grounded in a new way of understanding ourselves and Earth. And if some people question whether a story is enough to move the world, one can ask: What else ever has?

The models want to continue the record breaking fall +EPO pattern that we have been discussing. They also are intensifying the the polar vortex and taking the AO and NAO positive. The record +EPO and Pacific Jet seem to be stronger than any of the individual MJO and La Niña composites suggest.

The GFS has a pretty fast mover. Looks like this will be a less amplified system than models were showing a few days ago. Probably related to the models continuing to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet. But we’ll take any snow we can get this early in the season. New run faster Pacific Jet and flatter +PNA ridge Old run

It’s been colder compared to September and October, but there has been no record cold Arctic air like we got in 2017. That early November Arctic outbreak signaled the very cold end of December and early January before the record warmth arrived. If you want Arctic cold, then you generally need a -EPO. This fall the +EPO has been running the table.

This fall so far is much more Pacific dominant than 2017 was. We had the record early November Arctic outbreak that year. This year is all Pacific and continental air masses with no Arctic cold.

I know we talk a lot about El Niño and La Nina. But there seems to be another factor that has been influencing the pattern of our monthly departures. A monthly departure pattern that has been regularly repeating since 2010. We are all familiar with how warm September and a October has been over this period. But this turn to cooler has been a regular feature in November. Notice how closely this November has matched the 2010-2020 composite.

The higher extent than recent years around the Chukchi Sea is a result of the record +EPO vortex since the late summer.

A recent study improved MJO forecasts out to four weeks using deep learning. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23406-3 Producing accurate weather prediction beyond two weeks is an urgent challenge due to its ever-increasing socioeconomic value. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a planetary-scale tropical convective system, serves as a primary source of global subseasonal (i.e., targeting three to four weeks) predictability. During the past decades, operational forecasting systems have improved substantially, while the MJO prediction skill has not yet reached its potential predictability, partly due to the systematic errors caused by imperfect numerical models. Here, to improve the MJO prediction skill, we blend the state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts and observations with a Deep Learning bias correction method. With Deep Learning bias correction, multi-model forecast errors in MJO amplitude and phase averaged over four weeks are significantly reduced by about 90% and 77%, respectively. Most models show the greatest improvement for MJO events starting from the Indian Ocean and crossing the Maritime Continent.

With all the record winter warmth over the last 20 years, getting intervals of blocking and a more favorable Pacific has been key to the record snowfall. This has been true for all the various ENSO states. It’s the few years when the Pacific didn’t relax and the NAO and AO blocking was lacking that snowfall went below normal. With the record blocking patterns since 2002-2003, we have seen an unprecedented number of seasons when stations from around Newark out to Eastern LI recorded 40” or more of snow. This dramatic increase in snowfall has occurred during a steady increase in winter temperatures. Our older winters with 40”+ peak snowfall amounts used to occur with a NYC average temperature around 32°. But many recent 40”+ seasons featured a NYC average DJF temperature in the 35°-40° range. So this is a new combination of warmth and heavy snow for our area. Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded 20-21….36.1 17-18….36.2 16-17….39.3 15-16….41.0 14-15…31.4 13-14…32.9 12-13…36.8 10-11….32.8 09-10…33.8 08-09…34.2 05-06…37.3 04-05…35.4 03-04…32.4 02-03…31.2 00-01….33.5 95-96…32.2 93-94…31.2 86-87….34.8 77-78….30.8 68-69….32.9 66-67….34.1 63-64…33.2 60-61….31.7 57-58…33.2 55-56…32.8 Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together.

They didn’t ignore the NAO in their forecasts. But a forecast issued on November 8th for the 22-29 is going to miss a few things. Notice how good a job it did with the colder signal for the end of the month. So I would consider that EPS forecast very good for such a long range forecast. Just understand that it underestimated the big +EPO trough in Alaska. So if we don’t have a -NAO and the long range EPO verifies more positive, then the temperatures could beat expectations to the upside. That’s why you have to be careful when dealing with a record Pacific Jet and long range forecasts. Maybe someday the models will have AI built in and the forecast limit near 2 weeks can get extended further out in time.

The point about the Euro underestimating the +EPO long range is correct. But the EPS always had a colder +PNA -WPO pattern to end the month. It was never forecasting a torch for us. The reason this week was a little colder than the November 8th forecast was due to the stronger -NAO. Notice the stronger +EPO trough near Alaska than the EPS had back on November 8th. EPS forecasts from November 8th Nov 22-29 +EPO is stronger and -NAO more negative

The models can only do so much when we have seen record North Pacific Jet activity this fall. You posted the other day how this will be the most +EPO fall. I posted the record winds in that area during the fall a few days ago. So we see a model history of underestimating the Pacific Jet long range. As to my post yesterday, we have been in a -WPO pattern this month. And that is what the forecasts have been showing going forward. But if that Aleutians ridge is weaker or fades faster, that means the long range will correct warmer. That’s why getting a poleward Aleutians ridge is so important.

The JFK ASOS is in a marshy area that was filled close to Jamaica Bay and the 5 towns section of SW Nassau.

Northern Queens is right on the water which is a heat source along with one of the strongest UHI zones in the city. So they get a double whammy of warming. LGA temperatures are very close to the surrounding micronet sites in Northern Queens. The LGA ASOS is on a grassy strip larger than most residences in that area. So the average backyard sensor in that area would probably be closer to concrete. Also notice how close it is to the water when the flow is NW, N, or NE.

With these endless summer patterns lasting into October, NYC had a much earlier freeze relative to the means than POU did. Places that normally have an October freeze have been very late. But the delayed falls till November have allowed places like NYC to get their freeze closer to the recent averages. So the first freeze dates have been getting later faster in interior portions of the Northeast that used to have earlier fall freezes in the past. Latest first freezes 2nd latest date at POU and only 19th latest in NYC Frost/Freeze Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1995 - - 11-05 (1995) 32 - 1971 04-24 (1971) 30 11-05 (1971) 30 194 2021 04-06 (2021) 32 11-03 (2021) 29 210 1975 04-22 (1975) 25 10-30 (1975) 31 190 2007 04-21 (2007) 32 10-29 (2007) 27 190 1942 04-14 (1942) 27 10-29 (1942) 32 197 2011 04-22 (2011) 27 10-28 (2011) 28 188 2013 05-14 (2013) 30 10-24 (2013) 31 162 2005 05-13 (2005) 32 10-24 (2005) 31 163 1967 05-13 (1967) 30 10-23 (1967) 28 162 1998 - - 10-22 (1998) 32 - 1955 05-10 (1955) 30 10-22 (1955) 29 164 2014 04-25 (2014) 31 10-20 (2014) 30 177 1990 04-19 (1990) 27 10-20 (1990) 30 183 1973 04-30 (1973) 32 10-19 (1973) 31 171 2018 04-23 (2018) 28 10-18 (2018) 32 177 1948 05-02 (1948) 32 10-18 (1948) 32 168 2017 05-11 (2017) 32 10-17 (2017) 30 158 2015 04-26 (2015) 30 10-17 (2015) 29 173 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1998 03-23 (1998) 32 12-22 (1998) 22 273 2001 03-28 (2001) 30 12-16 (2001) 32 262 1948 04-04 (1948) 32 12-11 (1948) 31 250 2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2009 03-24 (2009) 27 12-07 (2009) 32 257 1902 03-20 (1902) 31 12-05 (1902) 24 259 2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251 2006 03-22 (2006) 31 12-04 (2006) 31 256 1907 04-03 (1907) 32 12-03 (1907) 30 243 1985 04-10 (1985) 28 12-02 (1985) 30 235 1963 03-23 (1963) 30 12-01 (1963) 29 252 1999 03-16 (1999) 32 11-30 (1999) 28 258 1979 04-08 (1979) 32 11-30 (1979) 29 235 1909 04-11 (1909) 24 11-30 (1909) 31 232 1952 03-18 (1952) 30 11-29 (1952) 28 255 1906 04-03 (1906) 32 11-29 (1906) 29 239 1958 04-09 (1958) 29 11-28 (1958) 32 232 2002 04-07 (2002) 30 11-27 (2002) 27 233 1991 03-31 (1991) 31 11-26 (1991) 31 239 1950 04-14 (1950) 26 11-26 (1950) 28 225 1981 03-21 (1981) 30 11-25 (1981) 31 248 1978 04-03 (1978) 31 11-25 (1978) 32 235 1941 03-31 (1941) 29 11-25 (1941) 31 238 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 1938 04-07 (1938) 30 11-24 (1938) 21 230 1918 04-12 (1918) 32 11-24 (1918) 30 225 1898 04-07 (1898) 29 11-24 (1898) 32 230 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233

It’s a warmer NW flow off the water today at LGA since the ASOS is right near the water in the NW corner of the airport. Same reason that they are cooler than Newark and sometimes JFK during heatwaves with offshore flow. If you look at the NYC micronet, the temperatures at LGA usually match the other observations in northern Queens. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park CLEAR 30 19 63 CALM 30.34R LaGuardia Arpt CLEAR 33 19 56 NW15G21 30.32R WCI 23 Kennedy Intl PTCLDY 31 18 58 NW16 30.33R WCI 20 Newark Liberty PTCLDY 32 19 58 NW8 30.33R WCI 25 Teterboro Arpt CLEAR 29 18 63 NW8 30.32R WCI 21 Bronx Lehman C N/A 32 19 59 N5 N/A WCI 27 Queens College N/A 32 19 59 N9 N/A WCI 24 Breezy Point N/A 32 N/A N/A NW13 N/A WCI 22 Brooklyn Coll N/A 32 19 59 NW12 N/A WCI 23 Staten Island N/A 32 21 64 NW8 N/A WCI 25

As long as NYC gets 3” or more in a coupled La Niña December since the 1995, it usually does well in the seasonal snowfall department. It’s the few years like 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 1999-2000, and 1998-1999 that came up short. Coupled La Ninas since 1995 bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6

It was easier to get an occasional NYC December average temperature near or below freezing when the average December temperature was in the mid 30s. NYC Dec….1991-2020…..39.1…..1981-2010…37.5…..1971-2000…..37.3…..1961-1990…..36.6………+2.5 Jan……………………….33.7…………………….32.6………………………32.1………………………..31.5……..+2.2 Feb……………………….35.9…………………….35.3………………………34.6………………………33.6……..+2.3 Avg……………………….36.2…………………….35.1……………………….34.7……………………….33.9……+2.3

NYC December average temperatures since 2010 with coupled La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Temperature Departure 2020 39.2 +1.7 2019 38.3 +0.8 2018 40.1 +2.5 2017 35.0 -2.5 2016 38.3 +0.8 2015 50.8 +13.3 2014 40.5 +3.0 2013 38.5 +1.0 2012 41.5 +4.0 2011 43.3 +5.8 2010 32.8 -4.5

Like we are seeing this month, a -WPO and +EPO can average near to below normal. But it all depends on how the other teleconnections line up. It’s more a back and forth pattern than any record cold. You would want a -EPO for a daily cold record. But smaller cold departures can occur with a well placed -WPO. -WPO +EPO this November

Our only colder than average Decembers since 2010 were the La Ninas in 2017 and 2010. La Nina winters usually have the coldest departure month of the winter in December. This year may be easier to get a colder December since December had the biggest winter monthly temperature rise in the new 1991-2020 climate normals. So the bar could be lower for a colder December with the right pattern. But since December has seen the greatest temperature rise of the winter with the new climate normals update, factors other than La Niña and El Niño have had a big influence. So we always have to watch for this warmer December tendency to have a bigger influence than La Nina or El Niño expectations. New 1991-2020 climate normals compared to 1981-2010 EWR Dec….38.0….36.5….+1.5 Jan….32.8….31.6…..+1.2 Feb….35.1….34.6…..+0.5 Avg…..35.3….34.2….+1.1 NYC Dec….39.1…..37.5….+1.6 Jan….33.7…..32.6...+1.1 Feb….35.9….35.3….+0.6 Avg…..36.2…35.1….+1.2 LGA Dec…40.0….38.2….+1.8 Jan….34.4….32.9….+1.5 Feb….36.3….35.3….+1.0 Avg….36.9….35.5…..+1.4 JFK Dec….38.3….37.7….+0.6 Jan…..32.8….32.7….+0.1 Feb….34.5….34.9…..+0.4 Avg….35.2….35.1…..+0.1 ISP Dec….37.1…..35.6…..+1.5 Jan….31.9….30.6…..+1.3 Feb...33.3….32.8…..+0.5 Avg….34.1….33.0…..+1.1 BDR Dec…37.0….35.4….+1.6 Jan….31.4….30.1….+1.3 Feb….33.1….32.4….+0.7 Avg…..33.8…32.6….+1.2 HPN Dec…35.1….33.6….+1.5 Jan….29.8….28.3…+1.5 Feb….31.9….30.9….+1.0 Avg…..32.6….30.9…+1.4

The day 10 EPS looks more like a -WPO based near the Aleutians than a -EPO. New run Old run

We need few more corrections stronger with the Aleutians ridge to get the gradient south of us. But today is an improvement over yesterday on the GEFS. Our better La Niña winters for snowfall usually have more of a poleward extension of the Aleutians ridge. New run Old run

It’s good that the strong winds wait until a day after Thanksgiving.

This year the La Niña is having a strong influence on the atmosphere. Last winter was much more El Niño-like. Maybe next winter we can finally get a fully coupled El Niño with a raging STJ pattern. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/did-northern-hemisphere-get-memo-years-la-niña