bluewave

The HRRR has 98° north of the LIE right before the sea breeze front arrives this afternoon.

While it took some time to find, this paper explains why the MADIS range test that the Gladstone site uses is so flawed. NYC is a chronically bad type of site mentioned below. The trees covering the ASOS has been an ongoing issue since the 1990s. http://www.thinkmind.org/articles/geoprocessing_2019_1_10_30010.pdf Range tests are not perfect. The record high United States temperature would fail MADIS’s range test, although it would pass MesoW- est’s test. Both MADIS and MesoWest further employ a suite of tests that go beyond their simple range tests. “Bud- dy” tests compare an observation to neighboring observa- tions. MADIS uses Optimal Interpolation in conjunction with cross-validation to measure the conformity of an ob- servation to its neighbors [2]. MesoWest estimates observa- tions using multivariate linear regression [5]. A real obser- vation is compared to the estimate, and if the deviation is high, then the real observation is flagged as questionable. These approaches are flawed in that they do not account for bad metadata, such as incorrect timestamps or incorrect locations. They do not account for chronically bad sites which produce bad data including data that may sometimes appear correct. Of even greater concern, they may not do a good job in assessing accuracy and may be incorrectly la- beling bad data as good and good data as bad. The consequences of ignoring data quality are great. How can we trust our applications and models if the inputs are bad? In turn, how can we better assess data for quality so that we can be confident in its use? In this paper, we present new evaluation results for our previously-published method including evaluation with several new data sets. These results are significant in that they demonstrate the challenges of evaluation of methods for data quality assessment of spatio-temporal weather sen- sor data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Sec- tion II presents relevant literature, Section III identifies general challenges, Section IV defines our approach,

The deep westerly flow took the 100° temperarures right down to Long Beach that month.

The longest 100° day streak on Long Island was 4 days in July 2010 at Mineola. The high of 108° was also the highest recorded temperature that I could find for Long Island. Wantagh came close but missed the 4 day steak with one day only making it to 99°. Wantagh reached 107° which was the 2nd highest tempersrure thst I could find for Long Island. Data for MINEOLA, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-07-04 103 2010-07-05 104 2010-07-06 108 2010-07-07 105 Data for WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-07-04 101 2010-07-05 99 2010-07-06 107 2010-07-07 104

You aren’t going to get that kind of IMBY resolution from a satellite map. But most of Suffolk south of the LIE has had very little rain this month. The sea breeze front has been stalling along the North Shore. Data for July 1, 2022 through July 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.19 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.21 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.22 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.24 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.26 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.26 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.30 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.31 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.32 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.32 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.35 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.41 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.43 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.46 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.53 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 0.53 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.83 SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 1.01 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1.09 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.17 MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 1.25 SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.50 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 1.66 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.92 FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 1.98 RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.99 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 1.99 JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.22 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.27 SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.34 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 2.48 NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.49 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.98 MOUNT SINAI COOP 3.00 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 3.30 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.34 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3.39 CENTERPORT COOP 3.61 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 3.99

Today looks like the peak of the heatwave with Newark making a run on a record breaking 102°. It will also be the first time that Newark had a 5 day 100° heatwave. The best that Newark did in the past was 4 consecutive 100° days. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2022-07-23 1 4 2022-07-23 - 4 2010-07-07 - 4 1993-07-10 - 4 1953-08-31 2 3 2011-07-23 - 3 2006-08-03 - 3 2001-08-09 - 3 1966-07-04 - 3 1949-08-11 - 3 1949-07-30

The driest parts of Central NJ this month also has the least snow last winter.

Newark is tied with 2011 for the warmest July. It’s the 3rd warmest July in Somerset County NJ. Philly is in 4th place for warmest July. The heat also extends into our northern suburbs. Danbury is currently having their 2nd warmest July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.7 8 - 2011 82.7 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2020 78.0 0 3 2022 77.8 8 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.4 0 2 1994 82.1 0 3 2020 81.9 0 4 2022 81.8 8 - 2012 81.8 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 76.4 8 2 2022 75.7 8 - 2013 75.7 0 3 2020 75.6 0 4 2010 74.7 0

That 84.4 looks like an error to me in the saved file on the website. I don’t remember seeing that buoy go warmer than 79° to 81°. It would be helpful if there was a saved regional weather round up for that day out of OKX with the actual buoy reports.

The 79°to 80° SSTs at the buoys south of Long Island are near all-time record highs. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=RWR&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP AIR SEA (UTC) (F) NY Harb Entrance 2150 80 20 S Fire Island 2150 79

Somerset County just made it to 101° like Newark. https://www.njweather.org/data/5min/3572 ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:45 Mesonet 99 59 27 29.95 0.00 5 WSW 15 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:40 Mesonet 101 61 27 29.95 0.00 7 WSW 11 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:35 Mesonet 99 59 27 29.96 0.00 9 SSW 9 SSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:30 Mesonet 99 59 27 29.96 0.00 5 SW 9 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:25 Mesonet 99 59 27 29.96 0.00 9 NW 12 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:20 Mesonet 99 59 26 29.96 0.00 8 WSW 15 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:15 Mesonet 100 59 27 29.96 0.00 9 WSW 12 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:10 Mesonet 99 59 27 29.96 0.00 11 W 11 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:05 Mesonet 100 59 26 29.96 0.00 10 W 12 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 16:00 Mesonet 100 60 27 29.96 0.00 6 WNW 11 W

101° at Newark with a 47° dewpoint must be really drying out the vegetation. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr Jul 23, 3:51 pm 101 47 16

June was certainly cooler for many parts of the area than last year. But July is proving to be one of the warmest in several spots. White Plains is currently at the 7th warmest July and climbing. But the consolation prize for your area is it’s still cooler than many other parts of the area on an absolute basis. But relative to the means, it’s still warm by White Plains historical standards for July. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 7 2022 76.5 9 8 2012 76.4 0 9 2016 76.3 0 - 1983 76.3 1 10 1952 76.2 0 - 1949 76.2 0

Maybe you are just getting used to the warmer temperatures around White Plains. Plus it’s usually cooler than other parts of our area. White Plains is currently having one of its longest streaks with low temperatures remaining above 70°. The high of 97° a few days ago was the 5th warmest for July and highest since 2012. The hourly dewpoint of 78° a few days ago was the 5th highest for July. So while your temperatures are more tolerable than other parts of the region, they have been rising just like every other spot over the years. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 11 2013-07-11 2 10 2013-07-23 3 8 2016-08-17 4 7 2018-08-08 - 7 1995-07-29 - 7 1952-07-22 7 2022-07-23 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 102 0 - 1966 102 0 2 1995 100 0 - 1949 100 0 3 1999 99 0 - 1977 99 0 - 1957 99 0 4 2012 98 0 - 2011 98 1 - 1954 98 0 5 2022 97 9

Somerset County at 98° now with the wind shift from N to WSW. https://www.njweather.org/data/5min/3572 ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 13:10 Mesonet 98 62 31 30.01 0.00 9 WSW 13 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 13:05 Mesonet 97 60 29 30.01 0.00 6 WNW 10 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 13:00 Mesonet 96 60 31 30.01 0.00 8 W 10 N ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 12:55 Mesonet 95 63 34 30.01 0.00 8 NNW 11 N ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 12:50 Mesonet 94 61 34 30.01 0.00 7 N 13 NNW

White Plains in rural Westchester has been having more impressive daily low temperatures than LGA relative to the means. White Plains is making a run on 10 consecutive lows over 70°. The last time it did that was 2013. A similar benchmark at LGA would be 10 consecutive days with a low over 75°. The best LGA has been able to do through the 22nd has been 2 consecutive days of 75° or warmer minimums. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1948-08-01 to 2022-07-22 1 11 2013-07-11 2 10 2013-07-23 3 8 2016-08-17 4 7 2018-08-08 - 7 1995-07-29 - 7 1952-07-22 5 6 2022-07-22 - 6 2010-07-18 - 6 1988-08-15 - 6 1988-08-07 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 75 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 14 2016-08-21 2 10 2006-08-05 3 9 2013-07-23 - 9 2010-07-24 4 8 2016-07-28 - 8 2013-07-11 - 8 1988-08-16 5 7 2005-08-13 - 7 2002-08-19 - 7 1993-07-13 Data for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Min Temperature 2022-07-22 72 2022-07-21 71 2022-07-20 72 2022-07-19 70 2022-07-18 71 2022-07-17 70 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Min Temperature 2022-07-22 79 2022-07-21 74 2022-07-20 80 2022-07-19 75 2022-07-18 73 2022-07-17 73

Newark is on track this weekend for its first 5 consecutive 100° day streak. The previous record of 4 days was tied most recently in 2010. Somerville was the other station to make it to 100° yesterday. So we have been having multiple 100° readings last 3 days from Somerset County to Newark. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2022-07-22 1 4 2010-07-07 - 4 1993-07-10 - 4 1953-08-31 2 3 2022-07-22 - 3 2011-07-23 - 3 2006-08-03 - 3 2001-08-09 - 3 1966-07-04 - 3 1949-08-11 - 3 1949-07-30 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 98 2022-07-22 100 Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-22 Mesonet 99 70 70 57 92 28 29.94 29.73 0.00 20 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-21 Mesonet 100 69 76 63 98 33 29.74 29.62 0.00 26 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100 67 72 65 94 35 29.81 29.68 0.00 24 WSW

Yeah, much of the bay is so shallow that it heats up like a backyard swimming pool.

The shallow Great South Bay made it to 86° today.

Looks like they snuck the 100° in before the sea breeze arrived.

This has to be one of our warmest southerly flow days here on the South Shore. Currently 90° in Wantagh south of Merrick Road with a southerly wind gusting to 18 mph. This is what happens when the SSTs at the buoy south of Long Beach get close to 80°. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.3 °F

The current 500 mb pattern with a trough near the Great Lakes hasn’t typically produced 100° heat in our area. The 500 mb composite for our last 10 July 100° days since 2010 is much different. A deep trough in the West with a strong ridge over the Northeast has been the norm. So this may explain why we are getting more onshore flow this time. Many heatwaves in the past with multiple 100° days featured deep westerly flow down to the LI South Shore. The record heat in the Southern Plains is getting drawn NE by a low in the Great Lakes this time. Current pattern has the strongest 500 mb anomalies to our south July 100° day composite strong 500mb ridge in Northeast

Several of the sites may not have updated their totals from yesterday yet. But we got very little on the South Shore. So more of the same. Plus your site may not be included on XMACIS2 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Suffolk County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.19 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.21 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.22 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.24 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.26 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.26 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.30 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.31 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.32 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.32 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.35 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.41 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.43 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.46 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.53 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 0.53 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.83 SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 1.01 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1.09 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.17 MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 1.25 SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.50 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 1.66 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.92 FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 1.98 RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.99 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 1.99 JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.22 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.27 SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.34 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 2.48 NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.49 MOUNT SINAI COOP 2.90 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.98 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.30 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 3.30 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3.39 CENTERPORT COOP 3.61 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 3.99

Around .25 of rain this month for the driest South Shore areas to around a 4.00 max on the North Shore.

These are among the lowest soil moisture levels from Central NJ to the LI South Shore in late July. https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/nasa-sport-lis-soil-moisture-products