bluewave

I think it’s mostly just being curious about where the pattern is headed at any given time. This is the first era when longer range forecasting has become possible. I can remember the how 70s weather models only went out a few days . So the forecast for the next day was often incorrect especially with winter storms. With the rapid warming of our climate, the patterns are slanted to much warmer. So any period when the record heat is missing our area like this summer so far is noteworthy. Just look at how warm our summers have become since the early 90s. We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 Near normal and cool years bolded Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 2021….+1.1….+1.2 2020…+2.6….+2.9 2019…+1.5…..+1.8 2018…+1.7……+1.8 2017…..+0.2….0.0 2016….+2.5….+2.5 2015….+1.4…..+0.8 2014…..-0.1…..-0.1 2013….+1.2…..+1.3 2012…..+1.7…..+1.7 2011…..+2.2…..+1.8 2010….+3.9…..+3.4 2009….-0.6…..-0.6 2008….+1.2……+1.4 2007…..+0.3…..+0.6 2006…..+1.7……+1.6 2005…..+2.6…..+3.3 2004…..-0.3….-0.6 2003…+0.4….+0.4 2002…..+1.6….+2.3 2001…..+0.7…..+0.6 2000…..-1.2…..-1.3 1999…..+2.7…..+2.9 1998….+0.7…..+0.7 1997….-0.3……-0.8 1996…..-0.6….-0.4 1995….+1.4…..+1.8 1994….+1.5…..+1.8 1993….+1.4…..+1.3 1992….-2.0…..-2.3 1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

Impressive battle between the La Niña ridge in the Plains and the block in Northern Canada. EPS extreme heat 15 day forecast Summer 2022 so far

The blocking up near Baffin Island continues to the wild card. The latest EPS is correcting stronger with block at 240 hours from a few days ago. So the La Niña SE Ridge/WAR can’t really lock in like it typically does during a La Niña summer. New run stronger Baffin Island block Old run stronger SE Ridge/WAR

May was the last month that we had a strong La Niña pattern in our area. Impressive blocking emerged in early June which resulted in the La Niña ridge getting squashed down toward Texas. July is starting out with a continuation of the blocking dueling with the La Niña ridge to our SW. So the major 95°+ heat has been occurring in brief 1-2 day intervals. The blocking would have to weaken for more extended major 95°+heat. So our local weather for the rest of the summer will come down to whether the blocking or the La Niña wins out.

Late July will come down to how much influence the La Nina vs the block in Northern Canada has. The EPS and GEFS are defaulting to typical La Nina climatology of a strong WAR/SE Ridge. The GEPS has more blocking so the WAR/SE Ridge is flatter. The degree of blocking will determine whether we get 1-2 days of 95°+ heat at a time like this week or something more extended. Typical July La Niña pattern

The typical July La Niña patten for us is is a strong WAR/SE Ridge. But the record blocking over Northern Canada is competing with the La Niña influence. So the storms get suppressed to our south. The EPS looks like more of the same over the next 10 days.

The Euro has upper 90s near Newark Tuesday. You can see the low 90s extending to Central Park on the Euro forecast below.

Only nuisance dry patterns here since that 2002 drought ended. It peaked in April that year and the drought feedback got us close to 100°. Luckily, we haven’t been that dry in 20 years. Monthly Data for April 2002 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 98 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97 NJ CRANFORD COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97

Parts of NJ were added to the lowest level of D0 this week. That mostly means browning lawns. The last time we made it to level 2 was back in 2016. So most of the time we end up getting a deluge after a few months of drier conditions. NYC hasn’t had a level 3 drought since 2002. That was the last time there were water restrictions put in place. So our dry patterns haven’t been able to make it to a level 3 or 4 since the wetter regime began in 2003. The most serious droughts of the last 20 years have mostly been restricted to the West into the Plains. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

Early guess from this eruption is that the record injection of water vapor into the stratosphere could cause a surface warming effect. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381 In summary, MLS measurements indicate that an exceptional amount of H2O was injected directly into the stratosphere by the HT-HH eruption. We estimate that the magnitude of the injection constituted at least 10% of the total stratospheric H2O burden. On the day of the eruption, the H2O plume reached ∼53 km altitude. The H2O injection bypassed the cold point tropopause, disrupted the H2O tape recorder signal, set a new record for H2O injection height in the 17-year MLS record, and could alter stratospheric chemistry and dynamics as the long-lived H2O plume propagates through the stratosphere in the BDC. Unlike previous strong eruptions in the satellite era, HT-HH could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the excess stratospheric H2O forcing. Given the potential high-impact consequences of the HT-HH H2O injection, it is critical to continue monitoring volcanic gases from this eruption and future ones to better quantify their varying roles in climate.

Newark continues to be the local leader for heat so far this summer at +5.9 in July. EWR….+5.9 PHL….+3.6 LGA…..+3.1 HPN….+2.8 JFK…..+2.8 NYC…..+2.3 BDR…..+2.1 ISP…….+1.5 map Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 92 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 92 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 91 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 91 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 91 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 90

The Feb 15 -11.4 to Dec 15 +13.3 swing was the most extreme within a year. Dec 89 -10.3 to Jan 90 +9.6 and Feb 90 +6.4 was the most extreme within a season.

It’s ironic that the super El Niño flipped us to the strongest extended winter SE Ridge pattern on record. 7 consecutive warm winters is a first for our area. The weak modoki El Niño in 14-15 was our last cold winter. Since the super El Niño in 15-16 Before the super El Nino

The trade wind index recently set a monthly record for the Central Pacific this spring and in late June. So the atmospheric response to the La Niña is more impressive than the SST anomalies in the Nino region would indicate. The record SSTs in the Western Pacific and record Sydney rainfall are very impressive. Almost like a Western Pacific super El Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

Newark, Harrison, Philly and SMQ are the only areas to have a heatwave away from the onshore flow. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 90 64 2022-06-30 92 68 2022-07-01 99 71 2022-07-02 96 79 2022-07-03 93 77 2022-07-04 91 64 Harrison’s days are posted a day later than they should be for some reason. The 97° was on the 1st and so on. Data for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 2022-06-30 88 67 2022-07-01 90 70 2022-07-02 97 78 2022-07-03 93 75 2022-07-04 90 64 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 87 54 2022-06-30 90 56 2022-07-01 95 59 2022-07-02 91 71 2022-07-03 89 59 2022-07-04 87 52 Data for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 88 64 2022-06-30 91 70 2022-07-01 94 73 2022-07-02 94 75 2022-07-03 91 72 2022-07-04 88 68 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 86 66 2022-06-30 88 71 2022-07-01 95 75 2022-07-02 91 77 2022-07-03 88 74 2022-07-04 87 68 Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 81 60 2022-06-30 84 64 2022-07-01 83 67 2022-07-02 84 72 2022-07-03 85 66 2022-07-04 82 61 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-06-29 85 53 2022-06-30 86 57 2022-07-01 94 60 2022-07-02 87 69 2022-07-03 85 57 2022-07-04 85 53

We had the super El Niño jump in 2016 which established the new higher baseline. Then a drop in temperature from 2017 to 2019 with the La Niña. The weak El Niño in 2020 was enough to almost reach the 2016 record. Then the La Nina in 2021 and 2022 has prevented a challenge of the 2016 record. We will probably see the 2016 record surpassed the next time we get an El Niño.

No heatwaves yet east of the Hudson through July 4th. Mostly just 1-2 days at a time of 90s before we cool off. Newark and Harrison are the only stations with an official heatwave so far. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 2 2022-07-02 - 2 2022-06-26 - 2 2022-05-22 1 2022-06-17 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 2022-06-17 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 2022-06-17 - 1 2022-05-31 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 1 2022-07-01 - 1 2022-05-31 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 2022-07-01 - 1 2022-06-25 - 1 2022-05-31 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 2 2022-05-22 2 1 2022-07-01 - 1 2022-06-26 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 6 2022-07-04 2 2022-06-26 - 2 2022-05-31 - 2 2022-05-22 1 2022-06-17 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 4 2022-07-04 2 2 2022-06-27 - 2 2022-06-01 - 2 2022-05-23

The West Pacific warm pool is also the warmest that it has ever been this time of year.

We have discovered a negative feedback for Arctic sea ice loss that was unknown back in the historic 2007-2012 decline era. Most observers in 2012 thought that the record set that season would probably be eclipsed within several years. But the rapid rebound in 2013 and 2014 began to change that idea. A paper came out in 2013 that showed the much thinner ice would lead to slower rates of extent decline in the near future. A study below published last year builds in this understanding. So given these findings, it’s no surprise that the 2022 melt season so far looks pretty average for the last decade with nothing close to the rates of loss seen in 2012. Recent Slowdown in the Decline of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Under Increasingly Warm Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions Jinlun Zhang First published: 25 August 2021 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL094780 4 Concluding Remarks PIOMAS shows a significant decline of Arctic SIV over much of the period 1979–2020, in line with previous studies (e.g., Kwok & Rothrock, 2009; Lindsay & Schweiger, 2015). However, it also shows that the Arctic SIV decline is slowing down during 2007–2020, which is in line with CS2 observations of largely stabilized Arctic SIV over 2011–2020. The slowdown of Arctic SIV decline occurs despite increasingly warm SAT and UOT. The reason for the slowdown of the SIV decline is because of a change in ice mass balance such that the decrease in ice export at the open boundaries of the Arctic exceeds the decrease in net ice production inside the Arctic. The magnitude of ice export depends on SIV or thickness and ice motion. The relatively strong decrease in ice export in 2007–2020 is attributed mainly to two factors: (a) Ice is thinning inside the Arctic Ocean and therefore less available for export. (b) The increase in ice speed is lower than the decrease in SIV or thickness and unable to drive more ice out of the Arctic (Zhang et al., 2012). Thus, the behavior of ice export at a time of SIV decline serves as a negative feedback to retard the decline. The relatively weak decrease in net ice production in 2007–2020 is because of a strong increase in ice growth in fall and winter, which compensates for some of the ice loss in summer due to elevated ice melt associated with ice-albedo feedback. The strong increase in ice growth is attributed mainly to three factors: (a) Thinner and less compact ice has much higher growth rates than thicker ice under freezing conditions. (b) There is an increase in dynamic open water creation due to enhanced ice divergence and shear deformation as a thinner ice cover is more mobile and easier to deform. (c) There is a decrease in surface net longwave radiation in fall and winter because of an increase in surface temperature that promotes upward longwave radiation. Open water creation is closely correlated with ice growth in much of the Arctic, particularly in the Canada Basin where the correlation is often above R = 0.8. By increasing the area of open water, the open water creation process helps to boost ice growth in fall and winter in 2007–2020. The behavior in ice growth at a time of SIV decline, aided by increased open water creation induced by increased ice motion and deformation, serves as a negative feedback to retard the decline, and therefore plays a role in the slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline during 2007–2020 under increasingly warm atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here, 2007 is selected as a starting year to examine the slowdown of the Arctic SIV in recent years. This is based on the consideration that 2007 saw a record low summer ice extent at that time, before a new record set in 2012. Nevertheless, the selection is somewhat arbitrary, and one can certainly select a different starting year for analysis. However, moderately shifting the starting year away from 2007 (e.g., 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009) would not fundamentally change this model study's conclusions that a slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline has occurred in recent years. Note that the model simulated Arctic SIV drops from 1979 to a local minimum in 1982 and then peaks in 1987 (Figure 2a). There is no significant trend in SIV during the period 1979–1987. While there is no significant trend in SIV either during the period 2007–2020, the later period differs from the early period 1979–1987 in two key aspects: (a) SIV in 2007–2020 is much lower than in 1979–1987, and (b) SAT and UOT are climbing increasingly higher in 2007–2020, while dropping in 1979–1987. The thinner ice cover during 2007–2020 leads the ice export and growth processes to play a role in serving as a negative feedback to slow down the SIV decline, which is not seen in 1979–1987. It is expected that such a role may become more prominent in the future. In other words, the slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline may continue for some time in the future unless a stronger Arctic warming than the present would occur. Whether it is true remains to be seen through enhanced observations and modeling.

The Euro seasonal issued back on June 5th is doing a pretty good job so far for July. Notice the main theme was the ridge remaining to our west since June. It will be interesting to see what it comes up with for August when the forecast is updated tomorrow. We will also get a hint of how the fall pattern and La Niña could progress. July forecast issued on June 5th Current forecast for the next 2 weeks

It’s turning out to be a west of the Hudson summer for heat so far. Most spots east of the Hudson still haven’t had an official heatwave yet. Very strong onshore flow influence with all the blocking and high pressure to the north.

The -IOD is on steroids with all-time record heat in Japan and record rain and flooding in Australia.

At least for our local region, the persistent La Niña background state since the super El Niño Has been taking a break during the first half of the summer. The blocking pattern has been weakening the warm pool to our east. So the record SSTs off the East Coast have cooled while the Canadian Maritimes have warmed. The SE Ridge or WAR pattern has been on hiatus since late May when we had the record heat on May 31st.

The blocking is preventing the extreme heat in those areas from coming north like it did in 2011.

Hopefully, some of this blocking can carryover to next winter. We really could have used it last winter with the progressive storm tracks. So it continues to look like July 1st will be the hottest day for a while.