bluewave

The warmer finish to December is allowing the average to get closer to 40° again. 2017 and 2010 were the only Decembers to finish under 38°. 2010 was the last time we had an average closer to freezing for the month. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 40.0 40.0 2022 38.0 38.0 2021 43.8 43.8 2020 39.2 39.2 2019 38.3 38.3 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 35.0 35.0 2016 38.3 38.3 2015 50.8 50.8 2014 40.5 40.5 2013 38.5 38.5 2012 41.5 41.5 2011 43.3 43.3 2010 32.8 32.8

That’s what I thought that you meant. We had 850s in the +10C to +12C range also on 1-11-20 when Newark hit 70°. The breaks of sun allowed us to beat guidance from a few days before. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 116 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Models are showing by the end of Saturday, 850mb temperatures near 10 to 12 degrees C. Prior to then, a deep-layered SW flow will result in an anomalously warm airmass with potential record warmth. Highs away from the immediate coast will likely reach 60-65 Saturday, perhaps even warmer with more sun being realized There is the potential for a few spots across interior NE NJ to hit 70. Coastal locations will struggle due to the strong onshore flow, but even there records could be attained. Highs will top out in the 60s for most locations except the immediate coast, where it will be in the mid to upper 50s.

I think we had sunny conditions for our last January 70° back in 2020. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2020 70 0 - 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 6 2017 67 0 - 2005 67 0 - 1995 67 0 7 2013 66 0 - 2008 66 0 - 1993 66 0 - 1990 66 0 - 1975 66 0 - 1937 66 0 8 2016 65 0 - 1973 65 0 - 1972 65

The Euro, GFS, and CMC, all have 850 mb temperatures in the +10C to +12C range. Those were the 850 mb temperatures when we made it to the low 70s in early January 2007. But that year had nearly full sun. So the models currently have mid 60s with plenty of clouds. More sun than forecast would allow us to make a run on 70°.

50°+ days have been getting closer to days with lows below 20° during the winter. So it makes it easier for big temperature swings. We have also been seeing more snowstorms near 50° days. This pattern started to become more pronounced around 2005. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-12-23 58 8 2022-12-24 15 7 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-02-14 25 16 2022-02-15 30 16 2022-02-16 49 28 2022-02-17 68 49 2022-02-18 63 27 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2020-12-19 32 20 2020-12-20 40 31 2020-12-21 46 37 2020-12-22 46 38 2020-12-23 45 36 2020-12-24 59 43 2020-12-25 61 29 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2019-01-30 35 6 2019-01-31 16 2 2019-02-01 21 11 2019-02-02 34 16 2019-02-03 53 33 2019-02-04 61 41 2019-02-05 65 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-01-05 19 9 2018-01-06 13 6 2018-01-07 18 5 2018-01-08 31 17 2018-01-09 44 30 2018-01-10 43 30 2018-01-11 53 41 2018-01-12 61 44 2018-01-13 58 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-12-19 55 45 2017-12-20 51 34 2017-12-21 39 32 2017-12-22 50 35 2017-12-23 48 38 2017-12-24 41 36 2017-12-25 38 28 2017-12-26 28 23 2017-12-27 24 17 2017-12-28 18 11 2017-12-29 22 11 2017-12-30 23 17 2017-12-31 21 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-01-07 26 20 2017-01-08 25 16 2017-01-09 23 14 2017-01-10 46 21 2017-01-11 52 42 2017-01-12 66 47 2017-01-13 62 32 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-02-13 22 6 2016-02-14 15 -1 2016-02-15 35 13 2016-02-16 54 35 2016-02-17 39 35 2016-02-18 36 27 2016-02-19 39 24 2016-02-20 61 39 2016-02-21 55 44 2016-02-22 52 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-01-04 36 14 2016-01-05 29 11 2016-01-06 41 25 2016-01-07 46 31 2016-01-08 46 31 2016-01-09 47 40 2016-01-10 59 40 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2015-01-04 56 41 2015-01-05 49 21 2015-01-06 22 19 2015-01-07 23 9 2015-01-08 21 8 2015-01-09 33 19 2015-01-10 23 16 2015-01-11 37 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-02-22 54 40 2014-02-23 54 43 2014-02-24 44 27 2014-02-25 33 24 2014-02-26 31 20 2014-02-27 34 14 2014-02-28 24 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-01-03 18 9 2014-01-04 29 8 2014-01-05 40 27 2014-01-06 55 19 2014-01-07 19 4 2014-01-08 22 9 2014-01-09 32 22 2014-01-10 37 30 2014-01-11 58 37 2014-01-12 54 38 2014-01-13 51 37 2014-01-14 52 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-12-21 65 51 2013-12-22 71 61 2013-12-23 64 42 2013-12-24 42 26 2013-12-25 31 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-02-15 55 37 2013-02-16 41 31 2013-02-17 32 18 2013-02-18 35 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-01-19 51 30 2013-01-20 53 30 2013-01-21 32 26 2013-01-22 27 13 2013-01-23 20 11 2013-01-24 22 12 2013-01-25 24 13 2013-01-26 27 15 2013-01-27 34 19 2013-01-28 36 29 2013-01-29 49 36 2013-01-30 59 39 2013-01-31 61 30 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2012-01-03 33 15 2012-01-04 27 13 2012-01-05 40 27 2012-01-06 53 35 2012-01-07 62 46 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2011-02-09 29 15 2011-02-10 29 22 2011-02-11 37 19 2011-02-12 40 30 2011-02-13 46 28 2011-02-14 58 37 2011-02-15 37 25 2011-02-16 48 26 2011-02-17 63 46 2011-02-18 67 46 2011-02-19 54 23 2011-02-20 40 21 2011-02-21 37 24 2011-02-22 36 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2010-01-24 50 32 2010-01-25 57 49 2010-01-26 49 35 2010-01-27 39 31 2010-01-28 42 20 2010-01-29 23 16 2010-01-30 20 13 2010-01-31 30 14 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2009-02-05 23 12 2009-02-06 32 15 2009-02-07 50 28 2009-02-08 58 38 2009-02-09 45 33 2009-02-10 50 35 2009-02-11 65 45 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-12-15 67 48 2008-12-16 58 30 2008-12-17 42 32 2008-12-18 42 36 2008-12-19 37 29 2008-12-20 31 22 2008-12-21 37 25 2008-12-22 27 13 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-02-05 52 38 2008-02-06 68 41 2008-02-07 49 38 2008-02-08 45 35 2008-02-09 44 37 2008-02-10 44 15 2008-02-11 24 10 2008-02-12 31 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-01-02 38 17 2008-01-03 20 12 2008-01-04 36 16 2008-01-05 43 32 2008-01-06 50 36 2008-01-07 62 45 2008-01-08 64 53 2008-01-09 64 47 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-12-01 70 49 2006-12-02 49 39 2006-12-03 46 35 2006-12-04 41 31 2006-12-05 37 29 2006-12-06 49 31 2006-12-07 53 26 2006-12-08 29 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-02-15 56 36 2006-02-16 59 40 2006-02-17 58 32 2006-02-18 35 15 2006-02-19 30 15 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-01-15 32 16 2006-01-16 32 16 2006-01-17 44 26 2006-01-18 58 36 2006-01-19 47 34 2006-01-20 61 42 2006-01-21 63 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-02-15 56 46 2005-02-16 54 35 2005-02-17 38 31 2005-02-18 31 18 2005-02-19 32 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-01-13 59 38 2005-01-14 66 34 2005-01-15 34 26 2005-01-16 31 27 2005-01-17 28 18 2005-01-18 18 9 2005-01-19 26 9 2005-01-20 30 20 2005-01-21 20 9 2005-01-22 25 6 2005-01-23 26 9 2005-01-24 24 8 2005-01-25 33 20 2005-01-26 37 17 2005-01-27 18 9 2005-01-28 22 5

Looks like New Year’s Day starts out in the 50s with 60s near record warmth by next Wednesday.

Very mild pattern for early January as the unusually strong zonal Pacific Jet dominates.

This was the coldest December since 1991 to have a T or less of snowfall in NYC. Most of the years averaged over 40° for December. So all the real cold came behind the cutter. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall December Temperarure 1 2011 0.0 43.3 - 2006 0.0 43.6 3 2022 T 37.1 - 2018 T 40.1 - 2015 T 50.8 - 2001 T 44.1 - 1999 T 39.9 - 1997 T 38.2 - 1996 T 31.3 - 1994 T 42.3

Near record Christmas to New Years warm up which could exceed 89-90 for lows around Christmas and highs around New Years. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25 Dec31 to Jan 1 highest Max Temperature 1 1980-12-25 -1 28 2 1983-12-25 4 32 - 1872-12-25 4 38 4 1883-12-25 7 37 5 1989-12-25 9 53 - 1960-12-25 9 44 - 1896-12-25 9 46

This will turn out to be one of the few colder departure winter months since the super El Niño in 15-16. The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°. NYC Dec 22…-2.4…so far Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3

December 2013 was +1.0 in NYC using the 1981-2010 climate normals. The NCDC site has the actual departures for past months before the new 1991-2020 climate normals period. The NWS and XMACIS sites correct all the previous years back to the 1800s departures to 1991-2020 normals. So we have to use NCDC to get the actual departures as they were at the time. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+> https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-3471AB84-CFD9-4C86-AA5D-139FA563DF99.pdf

Northern New England is warming at a faster rate in December than NYC since the 1951-1980 climate normals period. Dec 2011-2022 - 1951-1980 CAR….+5.0° BTV….+6.8° NYC...+4.4° Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 20.7 20.7 2022 26.5 26.5 2021 21.4 21.4 2020 26.0 26.0 2019 20.8 20.8 2018 16.4 16.4 2017 13.4 13.4 2016 16.6 16.6 2015 28.5 28.5 2014 22.3 22.3 2013 12.9 12.9 2012 21.4 21.4 2011 22.5 22.5 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 15.7 15.7 1980 9.0 9.0 1979 19.1 19.1 1978 16.3 16.3 1977 16.8 16.8 1976 7.9 7.9 1975 10.8 10.8 1974 18.5 18.5 1973 23.2 23.2 1972 7.6 7.6 1971 11.6 11.6 1970 10.1 10.1 1969 21.9 21.9 1968 17.9 17.9 1967 17.3 17.3 1966 21.1 21.1 1965 15.8 15.8 1964 16.9 16.9 1963 8.7 8.7 1962 16.5 16.5 1961 21.4 21.4 1960 16.5 16.5 1959 18.5 18.5 1958 5.5 5.5 1957 21.0 21.0 1956 14.6 14.6 1955 11.1 11.1 1954 18.9 18.9 1953 22.4 22.4 1952 18.8 18.8 1951 14.2 14.2 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 29.4 29.4 2022 29.9 29.9 2021 31.8 31.8 2020 31.3 31.3 2019 27.4 27.4 2018 26.8 26.8 2017 22.3 22.3 2016 29.0 29.0 2015 39.2 39.2 2014 30.0 30.0 2013 23.5 23.5 2012 30.8 30.8 2011 30.6 30.6 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 22.6 22.6 1980 15.0 15.0 1979 29.0 29.0 1978 25.1 25.1 1977 22.4 22.4 1976 16.3 16.3 1975 20.1 20.1 1974 28.5 28.5 1973 27.4 27.4 1972 22.5 22.5 1971 24.3 24.3 1970 14.3 14.3 1969 18.6 18.6 1968 17.9 17.9 1967 25.5 25.5 1966 23.4 23.4 1965 28.5 28.5 1964 24.8 24.8 1963 12.9 12.9 1962 20.1 20.1 1961 23.9 23.9 1960 19.7 19.7 1959 26.0 26.0 1958 13.0 13.0 1957 29.6 29.6 1956 26.2 26.2 1955 16.6 16.6 1954 23.1 23.1 1953 31.4 31.4 1952 26.8 26.8 1951 25.0 25.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 40.6 40.6 2022 37.3 37.3 2021 43.8 43.8 2020 39.2 39.2 2019 38.3 38.3 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 35.0 35.0 2016 38.3 38.3 2015 50.8 50.8 2014 40.5 40.5 2013 38.5 38.5 2012 41.5 41.5 2011 43.3 43.3 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 36.2 36.2 1980 32.4 32.4 1979 41.1 41.1 1978 38.9 38.9 1977 35.6 35.6 1976 29.9 29.9 1975 35.8 35.8 1974 39.3 39.3 1973 39.0 39.0 1972 38.5 38.5 1971 40.8 40.8 1970 34.4 34.4 1969 33.4 33.4 1968 34.2 34.2 1967 38.2 38.2 1966 35.7 35.7 1965 40.5 40.5 1964 36.4 36.4 1963 31.2 31.2 1962 31.5 31.5 1961 35.5 35.5 1960 30.9 30.9 1959 38.4 38.4 1958 29.3 29.3 1957 40.2 40.2 1956 40.9 40.9 1955 29.7 29.7 1954 35.9 35.9 1953 41.3 41.3 1952 38.4 38.4 1951 39.1 39.1

Tough for Northern New England to avoid near record warmth in December with the NW Atlantic SSTs near all-time warmest levels. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 28.5 0 2 2022 26.5 5 - 2001 26.5 0 3 1996 26.2 0 4 2020 26.0 0 5 2010 25.2 0 6 2006 23.6 0 7 1973 23.2 1 8 1981 23.1 0 9 2011 22.5 0 10 1953 22.4 0

This December is colder than the average since 2011. The 37.3 so far in NYC is below the 12 year average of 40.6. But this is closer to average for the previous 12 years. It’s about 1° warmer than the 1951-1980 average. It’s also 3° warmer than the 1871-1900 average. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 40.6 40.6 2022 37.3 37.3 2021 43.8 43.8 2020 39.2 39.2 2019 38.3 38.3 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 35.0 35.0 2016 38.3 38.3 2015 50.8 50.8 2014 40.5 40.5 2013 38.5 38.5 2012 41.5 41.5 2011 43.3 43.3 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 37.5 37.5 2010 32.8 32.8 2009 35.9 35.9 2008 38.1 38.1 2007 37.0 37.0 2006 43.6 43.6 2005 35.3 35.3 2004 38.4 38.4 2003 37.6 37.6 2002 36.0 36.0 2001 44.1 44.1 2000 31.1 31.1 1999 39.9 39.9 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 36.2 36.2 1980 32.4 32.4 1979 41.1 41.1 1978 38.9 38.9 1977 35.6 35.6 1976 29.9 29.9 1975 35.8 35.8 1974 39.3 39.3 1973 39.0 39.0 1972 38.5 38.5 1971 40.8 40.8 1970 34.4 34.4 1969 33.4 33.4 1968 34.2 34.2 1967 38.2 38.2 1966 35.7 35.7 1965 40.5 40.5 1964 36.4 36.4 1963 31.2 31.2 1962 31.5 31.5 1961 35.5 35.5 1960 30.9 30.9 1959 38.4 38.4 1958 29.3 29.3 1957 40.2 40.2 1956 40.9 40.9 1955 29.7 29.7 1954 35.9 35.9 1953 41.3 41.3 1952 38.4 38.4 1951 39.1 39.1 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 34.1 34.1 1900 36.2 36.2 1899 38.1 38.1 1898 35.0 35.0 1897 38.6 38.6 1896 34.4 34.4 1895 38.4 38.4 1894 36.7 36.7 1893 34.9 34.9 1892 32.2 32.2 1891 42.5 42.5 1890 30.0 30.0 1889 39.7 39.7 1888 34.7 34.7 1887 33.4 33.4 1886 29.7 29.7 1885 35.3 35.3 1884 33.6 33.6 1883 31.6 31.6 1882 30.6 30.6 1881 39.0 39.0 1880 26.4 26.4 1879 36.8 36.8 1878 33.2 33.2 1877 37.4 37.4 1876 25.0 25.0 1875 33.4 33.4 1874 34.4 34.4 1873 36.7 36.7 1872 26.7 26.7 1871 29.0 29.0

There were 15 La Niña Decembers in NYC with under 3” of snow since 1950. 11 of those seasons finished with under 20” of snow. But 3 of them managed to get close to normal seasonal snowfall around 23-25”. One of the seasons was 83-84 which also had single digit cold around Christmas like this year. December 2022 only has T of snow so far. It’s also the first La Niña December with such low snowfall to have an AO reading below -4. 83-84,73-74, and 71-72 were the 3 Decembers on the list to get closer to normal seasonal snowfall. 2 of those Decembers had AO drops under -2. It will be interesting to see if we can get enough snow to rank closer to the 23-25” 3 years rather than the 11 under 20”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5 Lowest December daily AO reading 2022….-4.238 2011…..-0.018 2007….-1.438 1999….-1.870 1998….-1.733 1988….-0.084 1985…..-3.783 1983…..-2.252 1975….-0.222 1974…..-1.659 1973…..-2.792 1971…..-1.398 1970….-2.530 1954….-1.748 .

Yeah, that was the only winter to average over 40° and have -1° low. 2015-2016 -1 41.0 - 1980-1981 -1 32.6 - 1975-1976 -1 34.3 - 1967-1968 -1 31.2 - 1934-1935 -1 31.1 - 1926-1927 -1 32.1 - 1883-1884 -1 30.0 - 1872-1873 -1 27.7

This low max of only 15° made the top 10 coldest going back to 1869. The 7° minimum was the 12th coldest. But this will be one of the warmest Decembers to have such a cold low max and min. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature December Average Temperature 1 1917 2 25.0 2 1880 4 26.4 3 1884 7 33.6 4 1942 8 31.1 5 1871 9 29.0 6 1883 10 31.6 7 1919 11 30.2 8 1933 12 32.7 - 1872 12 26.7 9 1983 13 35.2 - 1962 13 31.5 10 2022 15 37.8 - 1914 15 31.6 - 1876 15 25.0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1917 -13 0 2 1933 -6 0 - 1880 -6 0 3 1942 -4 0 4 1884 -3 0 5 1871 -2 0 6 1980 -1 0 - 1919 -1 0 - 1883 -1 0 7 1875 1 0 8 1914 3 0 - 1876 3 0 9 1983 4 0 - 1962 4 0 - 1872 4 0 10 1988 5 0 - 1955 5 0 11 1989 6 0 - 1909 6 0 12 2022 7 6 - 1921 7 0 - 1874 7 1

This was our first overperforming cold in a while. It lead to the 3rd coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas combination on record. The high of 15° on the 24th was the 3 coldest high temperature in NYC since 1991. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25 Missing Count 1 1872-12-25 9.8 0 2 1983-12-25 11.3 0 3 2022-12-25 16.0 0 4 1878-12-25 17.3 0 5 1989-12-25 17.8 0 6 1892-12-25 18.5 0 - 1876-12-25 18.5 0 7 1980-12-25 19.0 0 - 1906-12-25 19.0 0 8 1896-12-25 19.5 0 9 1870-12-25 19.8 0 Minimum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date 1 10.0 1994-01-19 2 13.0 2018-01-06 3 14.0 2019-01-21 4 15.0 2022-12-24 - 15.0 2016-02-14 - 15.0 2004-01-10 - 15.0 2003-02-16 - 15.0 1994-01-20 - 15.0 1994-01-16 5 16.0 2019-01-31 - 16.0 2009-01-16

Caribou still at +6 for December as they went +10 and NYC -25 yesterday. So the south based block pushed down into New England this month. Very unusual to have such a spread between NYC and Northern New England.

I believe it’s the only winter month in NYC when the first half had top 10 warmth followed by top 10 cold in the second part. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 46.4 0 2 1932-01-15 44.0 0 3 1950-01-15 43.6 0 4 1907-01-15 43.5 0 5 1998-01-15 43.3 0 6 2020-01-15 42.7 0 7 2005-01-15 42.2 0 8 1937-01-15 42.1 0 9 1930-01-15 41.7 0 10 1890-01-15 41.4 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 16 to Jan 31 Missing Count 1 1888-01-31 16.8 0 2 1977-01-31 19.6 0 3 1961-01-31 20.5 0 4 2005-01-31 21.1 0 - 1948-01-31 21.1 0 5 1920-01-31 21.2 0 6 2004-01-31 21.3 0 7 1936-01-31 21.5 0 8 1935-01-31 21.9 0 9 1918-01-31 22.2 0 10 2003-01-31 22.4 0 - 1940-01-31 22.4 0

That was a cold JFM after a mild December. 50°+ days have been getting closer to days with lows below 20° during the winter. So it makes it easier for big temperature swings. We have also been seeing more snowstorms near 50° days. This pattern started to become more pronounced around 2005. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-12-23 58 8 2022-12-24 15 7 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-02-14 25 16 2022-02-15 30 16 2022-02-16 49 28 2022-02-17 68 49 2022-02-18 63 27 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2020-12-19 32 20 2020-12-20 40 31 2020-12-21 46 37 2020-12-22 46 38 2020-12-23 45 36 2020-12-24 59 43 2020-12-25 61 29 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2019-01-30 35 6 2019-01-31 16 2 2019-02-01 21 11 2019-02-02 34 16 2019-02-03 53 33 2019-02-04 61 41 2019-02-05 65 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-01-05 19 9 2018-01-06 13 6 2018-01-07 18 5 2018-01-08 31 17 2018-01-09 44 30 2018-01-10 43 30 2018-01-11 53 41 2018-01-12 61 44 2018-01-13 58 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-12-19 55 45 2017-12-20 51 34 2017-12-21 39 32 2017-12-22 50 35 2017-12-23 48 38 2017-12-24 41 36 2017-12-25 38 28 2017-12-26 28 23 2017-12-27 24 17 2017-12-28 18 11 2017-12-29 22 11 2017-12-30 23 17 2017-12-31 21 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2017-01-07 26 20 2017-01-08 25 16 2017-01-09 23 14 2017-01-10 46 21 2017-01-11 52 42 2017-01-12 66 47 2017-01-13 62 32 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-02-13 22 6 2016-02-14 15 -1 2016-02-15 35 13 2016-02-16 54 35 2016-02-17 39 35 2016-02-18 36 27 2016-02-19 39 24 2016-02-20 61 39 2016-02-21 55 44 2016-02-22 52 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-01-04 36 14 2016-01-05 29 11 2016-01-06 41 25 2016-01-07 46 31 2016-01-08 46 31 2016-01-09 47 40 2016-01-10 59 40 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2015-01-04 56 41 2015-01-05 49 21 2015-01-06 22 19 2015-01-07 23 9 2015-01-08 21 8 2015-01-09 33 19 2015-01-10 23 16 2015-01-11 37 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-02-22 54 40 2014-02-23 54 43 2014-02-24 44 27 2014-02-25 33 24 2014-02-26 31 20 2014-02-27 34 14 2014-02-28 24 9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-01-03 18 9 2014-01-04 29 8 2014-01-05 40 27 2014-01-06 55 19 2014-01-07 19 4 2014-01-08 22 9 2014-01-09 32 22 2014-01-10 37 30 2014-01-11 58 37 2014-01-12 54 38 2014-01-13 51 37 2014-01-14 52 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-12-21 65 51 2013-12-22 71 61 2013-12-23 64 42 2013-12-24 42 26 2013-12-25 31 19 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-02-15 55 37 2013-02-16 41 31 2013-02-17 32 18 2013-02-18 35 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2013-01-19 51 30 2013-01-20 53 30 2013-01-21 32 26 2013-01-22 27 13 2013-01-23 20 11 2013-01-24 22 12 2013-01-25 24 13 2013-01-26 27 15 2013-01-27 34 19 2013-01-28 36 29 2013-01-29 49 36 2013-01-30 59 39 2013-01-31 61 30 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2012-01-03 33 15 2012-01-04 27 13 2012-01-05 40 27 2012-01-06 53 35 2012-01-07 62 46 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2011-02-09 29 15 2011-02-10 29 22 2011-02-11 37 19 2011-02-12 40 30 2011-02-13 46 28 2011-02-14 58 37 2011-02-15 37 25 2011-02-16 48 26 2011-02-17 63 46 2011-02-18 67 46 2011-02-19 54 23 2011-02-20 40 21 2011-02-21 37 24 2011-02-22 36 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2010-01-24 50 32 2010-01-25 57 49 2010-01-26 49 35 2010-01-27 39 31 2010-01-28 42 20 2010-01-29 23 16 2010-01-30 20 13 2010-01-31 30 14 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2009-02-05 23 12 2009-02-06 32 15 2009-02-07 50 28 2009-02-08 58 38 2009-02-09 45 33 2009-02-10 50 35 2009-02-11 65 45 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-12-15 67 48 2008-12-16 58 30 2008-12-17 42 32 2008-12-18 42 36 2008-12-19 37 29 2008-12-20 31 22 2008-12-21 37 25 2008-12-22 27 13 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-02-05 52 38 2008-02-06 68 41 2008-02-07 49 38 2008-02-08 45 35 2008-02-09 44 37 2008-02-10 44 15 2008-02-11 24 10 2008-02-12 31 17 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2008-01-02 38 17 2008-01-03 20 12 2008-01-04 36 16 2008-01-05 43 32 2008-01-06 50 36 2008-01-07 62 45 2008-01-08 64 53 2008-01-09 64 47 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-12-01 70 49 2006-12-02 49 39 2006-12-03 46 35 2006-12-04 41 31 2006-12-05 37 29 2006-12-06 49 31 2006-12-07 53 26 2006-12-08 29 18 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-02-15 56 36 2006-02-16 59 40 2006-02-17 58 32 2006-02-18 35 15 2006-02-19 30 15 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2006-01-15 32 16 2006-01-16 32 16 2006-01-17 44 26 2006-01-18 58 36 2006-01-19 47 34 2006-01-20 61 42 2006-01-21 63 38 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-02-15 56 46 2005-02-16 54 35 2005-02-17 38 31 2005-02-18 31 18 2005-02-19 32 16 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2005-01-13 59 38 2005-01-14 66 34 2005-01-15 34 26 2005-01-16 31 27 2005-01-17 28 18 2005-01-18 18 9 2005-01-19 26 9 2005-01-20 30 20 2005-01-21 20 9 2005-01-22 25 6 2005-01-23 26 9 2005-01-24 24 8 2005-01-25 33 20 2005-01-26 37 17 2005-01-27 18 9 2005-01-28 22 5

These big temperature drops have become more frequent since 2000. So the warming climate is making them more likely. It’s easier to have record temperature drop if you start out with higher temperatures. This month and 2014 were the only 50° drops in 24 hrs. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=all&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

It was just a little hard to follow the back and forth between the two forums since only snippets of what I was posting were quoted in the New England forum. So the crew there probably weren’t getting a complete picture of what was discussed in our local forum. All I was saying was that the Euro snowy run from last Thursday had a nearly identical TPV location when it was about to enter the US north of Canada. So the only difference between the warmer runs is that the SE Ridge was stronger before the low began to dig into the Plains. The neutral PNA could have worked better if we didn’t have the predisposition for even a slight SE Ridge a few days before storm time. But we always want as strong as a +PNA as we can get for our better snowstorm chance here. So by no means was I trying to say we had a great Pacific to work with. But a marginal Pacific would have worked out better without the SE Ridge linking up with the -AO block before the storm began to dig. The digging storm just enhanced the existing pattern that was in place. There was a recent paper that suggested the slowing AMOC and build up of warm waters off the East Coast could actually strengthen the trades and create more La Ninas in the future. So it can be difficult to access where one influence ends and another one begins. But we have been seeing more -AO patterns linking up with ridges extending down closer to the Midatlantic than we used to before the Gulf Stream warmed so much. There has never been an era from 2016 to 2022 with such an intense and persistent SE Ridge. No La Niña patterns from the past produced as strong and SE Ridge as I have shown earlier in this thread. Feel free to link to this post. But don’t leave anything out. That way there will be less confusion. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01380-y Climate projections suggest a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under global warming, with evidence that a slowdown is already underway. This could have significant ramifications for Atlantic Ocean heat transport, Arctic sea ice extent and regional North Atlantic climate. However, the potential for far-reaching effects, such as teleconnections to adjacent basins and into the Southern Hemisphere, remains unclear. Here, using a global climate model we show that AMOC collapse can accelerate the Pacific trade winds and Walker circulation by leaving an excess of heat in the tropical South Atlantic. This tropical warming drives anomalous atmospheric convection, resulting in enhanced subsidence over the east Pacific and a strengthened Walker circulation and trade winds. Further teleconnections include weakening of the Indian and South Atlantic subtropical highs and deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low. These findings have important implications for understanding the global climate response to ongoing greenhouse gas increases.

Our December snowfall since 2011 has been comparable to the late 70s to early 90s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.8 2.8 2022 T T 2021 0.2 0.2 2020 10.5 10.5 2019 2.5 2.5 2018 T T 2017 7.7 7.7 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 T T 2014 1.0 1.0 2013 8.6 8.6 2012 0.4 0.4 2011 0.0 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.2 2.2 1994 T T 1993 6.9 6.9 1992 0.4 0.4 1991 0.7 0.7 1990 7.2 7.2 1989 1.4 1.4 1988 0.3 0.3 1987 2.6 2.6 1986 0.6 0.6 1985 0.9 0.9 1984 5.5 5.5 1983 1.6 1.6 1982 3.0 3.0 1981 2.1 2.1 1980 2.8 2.8 1979 3.5 3.5 1978 0.5 0.5 1977 0.4 0.4

NYC is in track for the lowest December snowfall with a daily -4 AO reading or lower during a La Niña. La Niña Decembers with a -4 or lower daily AO reading and NYC snowfall 2022…T 2010…20.1 2000…13.4 1995….11.5 1966…9.1 1950….3.8 El Nino 2009….12.4 1976….5.1 1968….7.0 1963….11.3 Neutral 1978….0.5 1962…4.5