bluewave

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen. Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers. In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph. To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. “We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.” The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be. “I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said. The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.

Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.

The memorable cold combined with snow at times records since 09-10 have pretty much been one hit wonders. We haven’t seen a repeat of the June-July 2009 average high at Newark staying under 80°. Same goes for the record October snowstorm in 2011 all the way down to Central Park. The February 2015 -10 or lower departure looks safe also. Plus the first below zero in NYC during February 2015 since January 1994 also looks hard to beat for the month of February.

That combination of snow and cold in May was probably a one-off in our much warmer climate.

Early indications are that the blocking will extend at least into early May. So the exact position of the back door will probably have to wait until we are under 120 hrs. Record blocking across Canada since last May.

2020 set the record for latest 34° on record in NYC. The last time NYC had a freeze after 4-20 was in 1930. May 2020 was also the 3rd coldest low temperature on record in NYC. JFK tied with 1966 for the coldest reading ever in the month of May. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2020 05-09 (2020) 34 10-31 (2020) 32 174 1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-03 (1891) 33 180 1874 05-03 (1874) 33 11-12 (1874) 32 192 1876 04-30 (1876) 34 10-15 (1876) 32 167 1883 04-29 (1883) 34 11-12 (1883) 30 196 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1891 05-06 (1891) 32 11-04 (1891) 30 181 1874 04-30 (1874) 32 11-12 (1874) 32 195 1919 04-26 (1919) 31 11-14 (1919) 30 201 1892 04-25 (1892) 32 11-11 (1892) 32 199 1888 04-25 (1888) 31 11-17 (1888) 30 205 1930 04-24 (1930) 31 11-06 (1930) 31 195 1872 04-23 (1872) 29 11-16 (1872) 30 206 1875 04-22 (1875) 28 11-02 (1875) 31 193 1925 04-21 (1925) 32 10-29 (1925) 31 190 1922 04-21 (1922) 32 11-21 (1922) 32 213 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1891 32 0 2 1874 33 0 3 2020 34 0 4 1947 35 0 - 1880 35 0 5 1977 36 0 - 1966 36 0 - 1913 36 0 - 1876 36 1 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 34 0 - 1966 34 0 2 1992 37 0 3 2008 38 0 - 1977 38 0 - 1970 38 0 - 1956 38 0

Warmth will attempt to make a push into the region by the weekend as the Southeast ridge flexes. But it’s uncertain how much of a 50/50 low will try to hold on. So the location of any backdoor will determine how warm we can get. The models have been jumping around much more than usual even for the day 6-10 period recently. Very strong west based block near Hudson Bay this month.

The last times NYC dropped under 40° after 4-20 was back in 2021 and 2020. The rarest was during early May in 2020 when it snowed. That was probably the most anomalous cold event of the 2020s so far. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Apr 21 to May 31 Missing Count 2023-05-31 43 0 2022-05-31 40 0 2021-05-31 36 0 2020-05-31 34 0 2019-05-31 41 0 2018-05-31 39 0 2017-05-31 44 0 2016-05-31 43 0 2015-05-31 38 0 2014-05-31 41 0 2013-05-31 37 0 2012-05-31 38 0 2011-05-31 40 0 2010-05-31 40 0

The -30C 850 mb temperature near James Bay is close to the record for late April. It looks like the TPV splits in a few days and a piece heads for Maine. So NYC has a shot at dipping under 40° with the interior northeast having a hard freeze potential.

Any system based on polarities like ours always runs the risk of falling out of balance. I would like to think that we can eventually shift our consciousness to a higher level which recognizes that we are part of nature rather than separate from it. But it may take until sea level rise begins to inundate our coastal cities or major crop failures occur due to extreme weather and climate events. Climate warming is still too much of an abstraction for society at large to begin to contemplate. The best we can do right now is for like minded individuals to take this information and make any adaptations we can for a much more extreme climate in the future. It’s a bit of a paradox that the very nature of our evolution on this planet has selected more short term gains rather than long term sustainability. That’s how we have wound up with so many environmental degradation issues which are facing us. At some point we need to use our inherent creativity to override these outdated modes of existence which may have served prehistoric societies short term survival needs but have to be modernized for our current situation. Short term thinking served our ancestors coming out of the caves who had to be on guard in order to quickly get away from dangerous animals. Now we need to use our higher nature to shift toward an existence more in alignment with nature and fellow humans.

Models back to a stronger cold front this week with a piece of the TPV heading for Maine. So interior sections need to watch for a hard freeze. NYC may dip below 40° which will feel very chilly for late April. The low pressure will become the new 50/50 low which has been so persistent since late March. So more continuing backdoor potential.

Mostly driven by the warm minimums due to all the clouds, showers, and onshore flow keeping the high temperatures in check. The average high temperature is nearly 10° colder than last April. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 19 Missing Count 1 2023-04-19 70.6 0 2 2010-04-19 69.7 0 3 2002-04-19 69.1 0 4 1945-04-19 67.5 0 5 2012-04-19 67.0 0 6 1981-04-19 66.7 0 7 1941-04-19 66.2 0 8 2006-04-19 65.9 0 9 1968-04-19 65.5 0 10 2017-04-19 65.4 0 11 1976-04-19 65.0 0 12 1994-04-19 64.6 0 13 1955-04-19 64.3 0 14 1959-04-19 64.2 0 15 1991-04-19 63.8 0 16 2019-04-19 63.6 0 - 2005-04-19 63.6 0 17 1969-04-19 63.4 0 18 2015-04-19 62.9 0 - 1999-04-19 62.9 0 19 1974-04-19 62.8 0 20 1963-04-19 62.7 0 21 2014-04-19 62.5 0 - 1977-04-19 62.5 0 22 1985-04-19 62.4 0 23 2013-04-19 62.3 0 24 2008-04-19 61.9 0 25 1998-04-19 61.6 0 26 2024-04-19 61.5 0

No, the Greenland block is still going strong plus we have a -EPO. That MJO 8 back in late March reset the whole pattern to more blocking with a stronger 50/50 low. This pattern maintains a backdoor nearby with only brief warm ups between plenty of onshore flow, clouds, and showers. Canada is starting to get cold after so much record winter warmth. Figures the relaxation from MJO 4-7 would wait until the spring.

Nice improvements today on the 12z Euro. While there will still be a near record polar vortex near James Bay next week, the cold goes more to the east rather than the south. So the lowest NYC may get next week is the 40s rather than the 30s which were shown yesterday. But we’ll continue to watch further runs since these forecasts involving a PV nearby in Canada can jump around a lot from run to run. This is more something we see in the winter rather than in late April. New run Old run

You should probably invest in a set up like this.

They were a few degrees warmer for the high temperatures. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 2009-07-31 79.8 0 2 1969-07-31 80.8 0 3 1972-07-31 80.9 0 4 1985-07-31 81.0 0 - 1979-07-31 81.0 0 - 1958-07-31 81.0 0 5 1996-07-31 81.3 0 - 1947-07-31 81.3 0 6 2000-07-31 81.4 0 - 1945-07-31 81.4 0 7 2003-07-31 81.5 0 - 1936-07-31 81.5 0 8 1956-07-31 81.6 0 9 1967-07-31 81.7 0 10 1982-07-31 81.8 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 2009-07-31 91 0 2 1996-07-31 92 0 - 1979-07-31 92 0 - 1960-07-31 92 0 3 1976-07-31 93 0 - 1970-07-31 93 0 4 1985-07-31 94 0 - 1975-07-31 94 0 - 1939-07-31 94 0 - 1938-07-31 94 0 5 2003-07-31 95 0 - 1973-07-31 95 0 - 1967-07-31 95 0 - 1946-07-31 95 0

It was the only June and July on record with the average high under 80° at Newark. Very unusual summer for the modern era. As soon as the pattern began to warm in August Central Park got that big microburst.

I really enjoyed the 2009 summer since it was still warm enough to go to the beach and boardwalk and it kept the beach crowds down in Long Beach. I was willing to put up with extra rainfall especially early on in June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 1940-07-31 71.5 0 2 2009-07-31 71.6 0 3 1947-07-31 71.7 0 4 1936-07-31 72.0 0 5 1932-07-31 72.1 0

You continue to mix apples and oranges in your comparisons. First, NYC is the only site in the region that is situated under shade trees and every other site gets direct sunlight. It’s well known that you don’t take temperatures under trees. Second, that Franklin institute rooftop site can run cooler than the street level sites as has been the case with the NYC micronet rooftop sites. Third, PHI runs cool since it’s situated in a swamp on the Delaware River at one of the widest points. Your argument about Newark holds no water since it’s actually been shown to run cooler than surrounding sites on days where it’s subject to sea breezes since it’s in a swampy area near the bay. Plus none of the sites other than NYC shows a summer high temperature cooling pattern while the minimums have been rising. So blocking solar radiation to any site with trees is going to taint your observations. Numerous sites have hit 100° around the region since 2012. The area approaching NE NJ is naturally warmer even if there was no urbanization due to a downsloping effect on a SW to W flow. While the temperature measurements from the 1930s were less reliable, the NJ state record was set in Runyon during the 1930s and is located in this warmer corridor. So no urbanization was needed. It’s naturally a warmer part of the region than areas further to the SW due to typography alone.

They already have the record for not getting above 98° due to how thick the tree growth has become over the sensor. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature <= 98 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-04-17 1 4291 2024-04-17 2 4022 1977-07-17 3 3260 1894-06-24 4 2844 1911-07-02 5 2212 1917-07-30 6 1786 2010-07-04 7 1763 1988-07-09 8 1761 1962-05-18 9 1476 1923-07-19 10 1475 1948-08-25 Data for January 1, 2013 through April 18, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 100 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 99 NY WEST POINT COOP 99 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 99 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 99 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 99 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98 Data for January 1, 2013 through April 18, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA MARCUS HOOK COOP 103 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 102 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 101 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 101 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 101 NJ MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 101 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 101 NJ ATSION COOP 101 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 100 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ MARGATE COOP 100 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 100 MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 99 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 99 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 99 NJ POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW COOP 99 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 99 NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 99 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 99 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 99 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 99 Data for January 1, 2013 through April 18, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature CT COLEBROOK RIVER LAKE COOP 102 NY SARA NEW YORK RAWS 100 NY MELROSE 1 NE COOP 100 NY POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 99 NY ROSENDALE 2 E COOP 99 NY SCHOHARIE COOP 99 CT FALLS VILLAGE COOP 99 NY CAMBRIDGE COOP 99 CT THOMASTON DAM COOP 99 NY ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99

It’s really impressive how persistent the Canadian blocking has been since last spring. Figures it would mainly wait until the winter to link up the Southest ridge. The degree to which the blocking holds on will probably help to refine some of our summer weather details. While we usually have been very warm during El Niño to La Niña summer transitions, a continued wet pattern and more high pressure to the north could work to temper the heat potential somewhat.

The forecast beyond day 10 will probably come down to how strong the 50/50 low remains. The OP Euro maintains a stronger 50/50 with continued backdoor potential. We would want something closer to EPS to have a shot at more than a day or two warm up before getting backdoored again. The original day 10+ EPS underestimated the backdoor influence this week. So would want to see improvement show up under 168 hrs to have confidence that this pattern was going to relax.

Looks we have a shot at near the coldest 850mb temperatures on record near James Bay next week for late April. A -28C cold core at 850mb is pretty ridiculous this late in the season. Will be interesting to see how close this gets to the Northeast day 6-10. It’s possible that interior regions could see a hard freeze with 30s all the way to the coast. We probably won’t know for sure until we get under 120 hrs since pinning down exact polar vortex positions day 6-10 can be tricky.