bluewave

Much lower summer pressures over the Arctic since 2012 halted the rate of historic sea ice decline from 2007-2012 with the record Arctic dipole pattern those years. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053268 Thus we can say that a six year run of near one standard deviation negative excursions (2007–2012) is unique in the 63 year record. To further test the significance of the 2007–2012 AD patterns we randomly generated 10,000 time series, each with 63 points to match the observed time series and with a normal distribution without autocorrelation. For this simple calculation, the chance for having five consecutive values with a negative AD of magnitude greater than 1.0 standard deviation units in a sample size of 63 is rare, less than 1 in a 1000.

Yeah, reduction of smoke with this Canadian airmass and dewpoints in the 40s are doing the trick.

The main detriment to snowfall in general for the I-95 corridor since 18-19 has been the warm storm tracks. So while this winter averaged 34.8° in NYC, the 11 days on which .25+ of precipitation fell averaged 41.0°. For 50”+ snowfall seasons and La Niña background NYC needs to average closer to 32.0° and have cold storm tracks and storm days when the bulk of the precipitation falls. Even during the warmer winters of 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, and 20-21,the colder storm tracks and storm days allowed NYC to finish in the respectable 30-40” range for snowfall. But the lack of cold for a DJF average near 32.0° was too warm to go 50”+. Since 18-19 we have had both a warm background pattern and warm storm tracks. So this is why the 7 year snowfall totals have been at record low levels. I am hoping for the remainder of the 2020s we can see some bounce off these extreme low values. But expecting a repeat of 2010-2018 is probably a very low probability outcome absent some major volcanic event.

Another cool crisp late August morning just east of HVN at 58°. I really enjoy how well this area near the LI Sound cools off at night compared to the LI South Shore. The low of 51° a few days ago was the lowest August minimum since 2006. These much lower dewpoints allowing for the cooler mornings have been a nice treat following the record June into July heat and humidity. My maxes this month have been +1.8° and my mins have been -1.5°. So the month has been +0.2° so far.

The other important thing to mention is that there have only been 2 La Nina winters for NYC in the last 50 years with 50”+ in NYC. These were 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. The NYC winter average temperature in 1995-1996 was 32.2° and in 2010-2011 was 32.8°. Both those winters occurred before the warming jump over the last 10 years. The current 10 winter average temperature in NYC since 2015-2016 is the highest on record at 38.2° and +1.8° over the previous warmest 10 winter run. So the past winter which was the coldest of the last decade was only 34.8°. This was 2.0°+ warmer than the 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 winters. I bring up the La Niña factor since we have been in a persistent La Niña background state through the record warming of the WPAC. So this has been interfering with allowing a true El Niño modoki state like we had in 2009-2010 which was a little an over freezing at 33.8°. So the modoki allowed for the heavier snows during a warmer winter than the 2 La Ninas in 1995-1996. The record warming WPAC prevented the El Niño modoki from forming in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Even the snowy La Niña winters of 17-18 and 20-21 were too warm for NYC to make it to 50”. But outlying areas which have different requirements to reach 50” did. So my guess is that this current much warmer regime will make it challenging for NYC Central Park station to reach 50” again. But outlying stations which get colder could possibly do it.

For NYC I would say yes. Since NYC needs a winter average temperature close to 32° for their 50”+ seasons plus a cold storm track. The last time NYC was able to pull this off was back in 2014-2014. Even during the more recent snowy seasons since then, they couldn’t make it to that level since it was too warm for a 50” season.

For the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston this has been the lowest 7 year snowfall stretch ending in 2025 that these areas have ever seen. The main difference between this one and past snow droughts has been this time it has been warmth holding back the snowfall. Past 7 year stretches with much lower snowfall were mostly the result of drier patterns since they occurred back in much colder climate eras relative to the last decade. This time we have been getting warm storm tracks too far north and warm winter background patterns. NYC and Boston just surpassed the 1986 to 1992 snow droughts That era was much colder than the current 2019 to 2025 period. Plus we got the historic 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 seasons ending the snow drought. Our climate has warmed significantly since then making a repeat of those two historic winters unlikely. So it’s going to take an historic volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years in order to cool the climate enough for maybe 2-7 years before the effects wear off and the warmth rebounds. Unfortunately, we don’t have the current technology to make a reliable long range volcanic eruption forecast. So my long range out look outlook from DC to Boston contains several scenarios. The scenarios aren’t necessarily listed in order of probability. Just what each scenario would entail. #1….Lower snowfall regime continues similar to the last 7 seasons through the remainder of the 2020s. #2…Small bounce off 7 year lows through the remainder of the 2020s with slightly higher snowfall during one of more of the next 5 seasons. #3 …historic volcanic event not seen since early 1800s or even before that era dramatically cools the planet for 2 to perhaps 7 years before temperatures resume rise again. This scenario has very low predictability. And could lead to much colder and perhaps snowier winters for a time. Boston to DC record low snowfall last 7 season average from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025 and previous record 7 year lows Boston…2025…26.6”…….1992….29.9” NYC…….2025….14.9”…….1992…..16.3” Philly…...2025….10.5”…….1933…..12.5” DC…….…2025….8.5”…….1995…..10.1”

First August at FWN reaching 45° since 2008. The station at the airport has been keeping records since 2000. The old COOP nearby has August records back to 1893 with some older years missing. The last 30s in August there was in 1997. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 45 3 2024 47 0 2023 49 1 2022 49 5 2021 50 0 2020 49 2 2019 50 0 2018 53 0 2017 46 0 2016 48 0 2015 48 0 2014 49 0 2013 46 0 2012 47 0 2011 50 4 2010 47 0 2009 49 0 2008 45 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1965 34 0 2 1940 35 0 - 1930 35 0 4 1949 36 0 5 1987 37 0 - 1976 37 0 7 1997 38 4 - 1988 38 0 - 1982 38 1 - 1944 38 0 11 1979 39 1 - 1971 39 0 - 1969 39 0 - 1968 39 2 - 1943 39 0 - 1941 39 0

Yeah, the trough to the east of Japan this February was the strongest since 2000 for the month. Most of the times in the past with very deep low pressure in this region there was also a trough in the Southeast. The jet stream extension from East Asia crossing the U.S. was extremely strong. So the big event in mid-February ran too far north through the Great Lakes when we had the 5SD Greenland block giving places like Toronto the record snowfall instead of the East Coast. Plus we got a Southeast Ridge this February when there wasn’t usually one in the past under the older configurations with deep low pressure east of Japan. The much stronger Pacific Jet and a robust Southeast ridge at storm time have both lead to the record low 7 year snowfall from Philly to Boston.

The record August 1986 cold in NJ was an early signal before one of their snowiest winters from that era. Monthly Data for August 1986 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LONG VALLEY COOP 35 NEWTON COOP 35 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 36 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 37 PEMBERTON COOP 37 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 38 HIGH POINT PARK COOP 38 TOMS RIVER COOP 39 EWING 3 WNW COOP 39 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 39 CRANFORD COOP 39 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 39 ESTELL MANOR COOP 39 Trenton Area ThreadEx 39 LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 40 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 40 PLAINFIELD COOP 40 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 40 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 41 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 41 TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 41 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 41 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 41 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 41 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 41 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 42 CANOE BROOK COOP 42 ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42 WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 42 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 42 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 43 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43 LITTLE FALLS COOP 43 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 44 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 44 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 45 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 45 SHILOH COOP 45 AUDUBON COOP 46 GLASSBORO 2 NE COOP 47 BRANT BEACH-BEACH HAVEN COOP 47 Newark Area ThreadEx 48 JERSEY CITY COOP 48 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48 ATLANTIC CITY MARINA WBAN 50 Atlantic City Marina Area ThreadEx 50 Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 70.0 HIGH POINT PARK COOP 53.9 LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 53.3 ESTELL MANOR COOP 48.1 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 47.3 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 47.3 POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW COOP 46.1 OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR COOP 45.5 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 45.4 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 44.8 NEWTON COOP 44.5 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 44.0 GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 43.5 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 43.2 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 41.9 LONG VALLEY COOP 40.2 MAYS LANDING 1 W COOP 40.0 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 39.9 AUDUBON COOP 39.0 PLAINFIELD COOP 38.5 EWING 3 WNW COOP 37.1 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 37.1 Trenton Area ThreadEx 37.1

Two years in a row for some spots. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 75.4 82.1 75.3 77.6 2024 77.5 81.3 77.0 78.6 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 72.1 78.4 72.0 74.2 2024 74.2 79.0 73.8 75.7 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 71.4 77.3 71.1 73.3 2024 72.7 76.9 72.1 73.9 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 74.2 79.4 71.5 75.0 2024 75.3 78.1 75.0 76.1

The subsurface accumulation of warmth is really off the charts. During the winter there was a trough east of Japan. But the SSTs weren’t able to cool much with so much heat below the surface. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

Our recent precipitation patterns shifted to drier following last August. We have also been very erratic with wet months and dry months and not much in the middle. The recent deluges back in May and the early summer weren’t widespread enough to affect the whole area. Plus the magnitude didn’t rival the historic flooding last August with 10-15” in just a few hours. They also didn’t rival some of the summer flooding in 2023 where place like the Bear Mountain area had over 10” in a few hours. This is too short a period of time to determine if this is a new longer term shift to drier relative to the 2000s and 2010s. We would need more time to see if we shift back the wetter pattern again next few years. What we can say is that Canada has developed record dry patterns in recent years and that the dryness has also included our area over the last year. These lower dewpoints originated up in Canada with the record drought there. It occurred as the Southeast Ridge shifted to troughing in recent weeks. Which acted as a giant heat and humidity pump earlier this summer.

Departures keep changing every 10 years so they are a subjective measure in a warming climate. Rankings are fixed based on the actual comparisons to past events making them an objective measure. In the old days the departures and rankings were directly related when the temperatures didn’t vary much with each new 10 year update prior to the 1980s. This is the reason that records are based on the actual rankings and not departures. A daily record high or low at a place like Boston is the actual temperature according to the rank. Since a record low for example will always be the number one ranked coldest temperature on a specific date. The record is not based on the numerical departure. So it will always be an objective measure. Now if you are doing simple seasonal outlooks then you will rely on departures for above and below areas on the maps. But this is only one metric for doing these seasonal outlooks. It’s a good starting point as to what you think the forecast will look like. Let’s say you were doing a summer outlook for a client in BTV. It would be a good summer outlook if you showed above normal temperatures. But if you wanted to stand out from the rest of the pack, then you would attempt to let the client know what the sensible weather would be. Since the 1991-2020 climate normals are the warmest on record, BTV is only currently at +1.8. This would lead the average person who is not familiar with the changing departures to think that the summer would just feel a little warmer than average. But this is a subjective measure based on the recent climate. BTV is currently ranked 3 warmest summer on record. 5 days reaching 95 was the 4 th highest ever for a summer. The summer had 17 days reaching 90 and was the 4th highest. The 99° in June was 2nd highest for the month.

I would tend to think right now that the ACE finishes lower than the 161 reading we got for 2024. But there are some similarities to last year so far. 2024 featured hurricane Beryl going CAT 5 in early July. Then no major hurricanes until late September. This year we got the CAT 5 Erin in mid-August and now it looks like perhaps no majors into at least mid-September. So my guess is that Erin won’t be the only major this year.

The lowest August average minimum dewpoint since 2014 allowed the minimums to drive the cooler departures at spots like HPN which have been average for high temperatures. Climatological Data for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - August 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 2123 1611 - - 2 187 2.39 Average 81.7 62.0 71.8 -1.0 - - - Normal 81.6 63.9 72.8 - 2 2025-08-01 73 61 67.0 -6.9 0 2 0.02 2025-08-02 79 58 68.5 -5.4 0 4 0.00 2025-08-03 82 57 69.5 -4.3 0 5 0.00 2025-08-04 87 60 73.5 -0.2 0 9 0.00 2025-08-05 82 66 74.0 0.4 0 9 0.00 2025-08-06 77 66 71.5 -2.1 0 7 T 2025-08-07 80 60 70.0 -3.5 0 5 T 2025-08-08 80 57 68.5 -4.9 0 4 0.00 2025-08-09 82 56 69.0 -4.3 0 4 0.00 2025-08-10 89 60 74.5 1.3 0 10 0.00 2025-08-11 88 63 75.5 2.4 0 11 0.00 2025-08-12 90 62 76.0 3.0 0 11 0.00 2025-08-13 90 69 79.5 6.6 0 15 1.16 2025-08-14 90 71 80.5 7.7 0 16 0.00 2025-08-15 86 71 78.5 5.8 0 14 0.00 2025-08-16 83 70 76.5 3.9 0 12 T 2025-08-17 90 70 80.0 7.5 0 15 T 2025-08-18 74 59 66.5 -5.8 0 2 0.00 2025-08-19 76 57 66.5 -5.7 0 2 0.00 2025-08-20 68 57 62.5 -9.6 2 0 1.17 2025-08-21 72 58 65.0 -7.0 0 0 0.04 2025-08-22 82 56 69.0 -2.8 0 4 0.00 2025-08-23 82 60 71.0 -0.7 0 6 0.00 2025-08-24 80 61 70.5 -1.0 0 6 0.00 2025-08-25 84 65 74.5 3.2 0 10 0.00 2025-08-26 77 61 69.0 -2.2 0 4 0.00 2025-08-27 M M M M M M M 2025-08-28 M M M M M M M 2025-08-29 M M M M M M M 2025-08-30 M M M M M M M 2025-08-31 M M M M M M M

Yeah, late seasons have been very active since Sandy back in 2012.

Newark has averaged 3 days reaching 90° after August since 2010. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Sep-Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3 0 3 2024 0 0 0 2023 6 0 6 2022 1 0 1 2021 1 0 1 2020 0 0 0 2019 3 1 4 2018 4 0 4 2017 3 0 3 2016 5 0 5 2015 5 0 5 2014 3 0 3 2013 1 0 1 2012 2 0 2 2011 0 0 0 2010 6 0 6

Top 10 and even some top 5 driest records for this August across the region. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 T 6 2 2022 1.04 2 3 2019 1.22 0 4 2020 1.24 3 5 2001 1.57 0 6 2005 2.09 0 7 2016 2.59 0 8 2014 2.74 1 9 2012 2.78 0 10 2015 2.84 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 0.80 6 2 2010 0.81 0 3 2008 0.91 0 4 2005 0.93 0 5 2014 2.01 1 6 2015 2.12 1 7 2006 2.46 0 8 2016 2.87 0 9 2003 2.97 1 10 2001 3.02 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1917 0.76 1 2 1964 0.82 0 3 2016 0.84 0 4 1995 1.04 0 5 2005 1.16 0 6 2015 1.21 0 7 1923 1.29 0 8 2025 1.33 5 9 1935 1.35 0 10 1980 1.36 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1995 0.12 0 2 1964 0.24 0 3 1981 0.31 0 4 1972 0.94 0 5 2016 1.13 0 6 1984 1.19 0 7 1980 1.32 0 8 2025 1.67 5 9 1966 1.74 0 10 1988 1.83 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1964 0.18 0 2 2005 0.26 0 3 1984 0.47 0 4 2025 0.53 5 5 2022 0.67 0 6 2009 0.68 0 7 1995 0.74 0 8 2016 0.90 0 9 1981 1.18 0 10 1980 1.45 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005 0.71 0 2 1956 0.93 0 3 2022 1.00 0 4 2025 1.05 5 5 1966 1.27 0 6 2009 1.39 0 7 1972 1.50 0 8 1953 1.84 0 9 1969 1.93 0 10 2016 1.96 0

First time with no 90° days at the warm spots from 8-18 through 8-31 since 2011. That year it took Irene merging with the trough and plenty of rain. This time the recurving hurricane and trough over Eastern Canada were enough. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 8-18 to 8-31 High Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-08-31 88 5 2024-08-31 95 0 2023-08-31 91 0 2022-08-31 94 0 2021-08-31 97 0 2020-08-31 93 0 2019-08-31 94 0 2018-08-31 96 0 2017-08-31 91 0 2016-08-31 95 0 2015-08-31 94 0 2014-08-31 93 0 2013-08-31 91 0 2012-08-31 94 0 2011-08-31 89 0

Would be nice to ease the developing dry conditions for the OP to score a win here. But the EPS is still more suppressed. I hope they move toward the OP over the next several runs.

We got an early hint how cold the 1976-1977 winter was going to be with the record cold outbreak at the end of August 1976. Data for August 31, 1976 through August 31, 1976 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 37 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38 CT DANBURY COOP 38 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 39 NY CARMEL COOP 39 CT WESTBROOK COOP 39 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 40 NY SCARSDALE COOP 40 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 40 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 40 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 41 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 41 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 42 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 42 NY SUFFERN COOP 42 NY WEST POINT COOP 42 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 43 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 43 CT GROTON COOP 43 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 44 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 45 NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 45 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 45 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46 NY MINEOLA COOP 46 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 46 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 47 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 47 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 48 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 50 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 50 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 50 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 52 NY MONTAUK COOP 52 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 53 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 53 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 54 Data for August 31, 1976 through August 31, 1976 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 34 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 35 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 36 NJ NEWTON COOP 36 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 37 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 37 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 38 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 38 PA PERKASIE COOP 39 PA PALMERTON COOP 39 NJ CHATSWORTH COOP 39 PA GEORGE SCHOOL COOP 39 MD CENTREVILLE COOP 40 NJ BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 40 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 40 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 40 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 40 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 40 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 41 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 NJ LAMBERTVILLE COOP 41 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 41 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 41 DE GEORGETOWN 5 SW COOP 42 MD MILLINGTON 1 SE COOP 42 PA WEST CHESTER 2 NW COOP 42 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 42 PA READING 4 NNW COOP 42 NJ WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 42 NJ HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 42 NJ BELVIDERE COOP 42 NJ TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 42 NJ LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 42 DE MIDDLETOWN 3 E COOP 43 PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 43 PA MORGANTOWN COOP 43 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 43 NJ CHERRY HILL COOP 43 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 43 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 DE MILFORD 2 SE COOP 44 NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 44 NJ WEST WHARTON COOP 44 MD EASTON COOP 45 DE BRIDGEVILLE 1 NW COOP 45 MD DENTON 2 E COOP 45 DE NEWARK AG FARM COOP 45 PA WEST GROVE 1 SE COOP 45 DE WILMINGTON PORTER RES COOP 46 NJ SHILOH COOP 46 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 46 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 46 NJ GLASSBORO 2 NE COOP 47 PA WILLOW GROVE NAS WBAN 47 MD CHESTERTOWN COOP 48 NJ AUDUBON COOP 48 NJ TRENTON WBAN 48 MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 49 DE DOVER COOP 49 MD PRESTON 1 S COOP 49 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 50 PA DEVAULT 1 W COOP 50 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 50 NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 50 NJ SPLIT ROCK POND COOP 50 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 51 DE LEWES COOP 53 PA DREXEL UNIV COOP 53 PA MARCUS HOOK COOP 54 PA PHILADELPHIA 23D & MARKET COOP 54 PA PHILADELPHIA WBAN 56 PA PHILADELPHIA WSFO COOP 56

The standards or 30 year climate normals originated back in a stable climate when there weren’t significant temperature rises with every new 10 year update. This is why your area had the warmest summer on record back in 2020 at 77.9° and the departure was only +2.9° using 1991-2020 climate normals. Under the 1951-1980 climate normals it would have been a +4.3 summer. It’s why NOAA is exploring using alternatives to the climate normals. Many organizations just set the climate normals to an earlier period before the climate began to rapidly warm so the departures more closely resemble the actual temperatures. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/02/updated-yardstick-begs-question-whats-normal-in-a-changing-climate/ Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) Top 10 warmest summers using dense rank sorting for temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2020 77.9 0 2 1966 77.6 0 3 2016 77.3 0 4 2021 77.1 0 5 2024 76.9 0 6 2010 76.8 0 7 2022 76.7 0 - 1999 76.7 0 8 2019 76.5 0 - 2005 76.5 0 9 1991 76.4 0 10 1900 76.2 0

I was using the extended climate record for your area which started back in 1888. Past Climatological Periods At Middletown-Harrisburg Area in Middletown-Harrisburg, PA (MDTthr) Period of record: 1888-07-01 to 2025-08-25 (current) - 138 Year(s) Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) 20 warmest summers dense rank sorting by temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2020 77.9 0 2 1966 77.6 0 3 2016 77.3 0 4 2021 77.1 0 5 2024 76.9 0 6 2010 76.8 0 7 2022 76.7 0 - 1999 76.7 0 8 2019 76.5 0 - 2005 76.5 0 9 1991 76.4 0 10 1900 76.2 0 11 1943 76.1 0 12 2002 76.0 0 13 2025 75.9 6 14 2011 75.6 0 - 1995 75.6 0 15 1994 75.5 0 16 2018 75.4 0 - 1955 75.4 0 - 1949 75.4 0 17 1993 75.3 0 18 2012 75.2 0 - 2006 75.2 0 - 1988 75.2 0 19 1974 75.0 0 - 1973 75.0 0 - 1939 75.0 0 20 2015 74.9 0 - 1952 74.9 0

LOL at using hot button terms like agenda, shocked, and appalled. Try taking a step back and just looking at the actual data instead putting a strong emotional charge on it. Your area is further south than where the strongest Northeast warmth has occurred this summer. MDT is currently at an average summer temperature of 75.9°. That is the 13th warmest average summer temperature. You guys should slip back several spots with the cooler pattern to close out the summer. The current departure is only +0.7°. So the actual summer will finish up with top 20 warmth even if the departure isn’t that high.