bluewave

We’ll see if we can get 3 rounds of convection Monday into Tuesday. One round with the morning warm front. Then another with the cold front later on. Plenty of helicity and shear so embedded spin ups may be possible. Then maybe some cold pool storms Tuesday as the UL tracks across.

Excessive tree growth has caused NYC to significantly decline on the heatwave list since 1971. NYC was near the top for heatwaves during the 1971-1980 period of 10 warm seasons. It has dropped to the bottom of the list on the most recent 10 season period from 2014 to 2023. # of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves 1971-1980 EWR………………..………….23 NYC………………………..….21 Freehold-Marlboro….…..19 New Brunswick……………18 LGA……………………………..12 POU…………………………….12 # of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves + increase since 1971-1980 2014-2023 Freehold-Marlboro……..52…..+33 Newark………………………41……+18 New Brunswick…………..38……+20 LGA…………………………….28……+16 POU…………………………….28……+16 NYC…………………………….20……..-1

Most stations are close to normal for warmer 91-20 average JJA summer departures so far. Plenty of blocking. Where was this pattern during recent winters?

Just looks like the typical summer frontal passage with some scattered evening convection on Friday. Nice weekend as the front keeps moving to the east.

This was the first +1.5C July. Looks like we are ahead of the pace required to have the first full year of +1.5C by 2033.

This is the first time we have seen an El Niño evolution like this. So there aren’t any analog years for this type of development. This event is doing it down thing and we’ll just have to wait and see where the forcing lines up from the fall into winter.

The one common denominator to extreme heat events like the PAC NW heat dome was drought feedback. We have been very wet over the last decade. So we haven’t been able to challenge the near to all-time record highs set back in 2010-2011 when droughts were present from the Plains to the East Coast. A PAC NW magnitude event for our area would mean our first 110°+ reading. So luckily, we haven’t had that type or drought here since the 1960s. But we have made up for it with much higher dewpoints and consistent very high 90° day count years. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature Newark Area ThreadEx 108 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 CANOE BROOK COOP 107 HARRISON COOP 107 Trenton Area ThreadEx 106 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 106 RINGWOOD COOP 106 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 106 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 105 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 105 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 105 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 105 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 105 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 104 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 104 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 104 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 104 BOUND BROOK 2W COOP 104 PLAINFIELD COOP 104 CRANFORD COOP 104 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 104 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature MINEOLA COOP 108 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 CHEMUNG COOP 104 ELMIRA CORNING REGIONAL AP WBAN 104 GLENS FALLS FARM COOP 104 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 104 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 104 RHINEBECK 4SE COOP 104 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NORRISTOWN COOP 108 Reading Area ThreadEx 106 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 106 LEWISTOWN COOP 106 STEVENSON DAM COOP 106 LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT COOP 105 RENOVO COOP 105 MILLHEIM COOP 105 NEW CASTLE 1 N COOP 105 MARCUS HOOK COOP 105 SAFE HARBOR DAM COOP 105 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 105 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 105 HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT WBAN 105 DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 105 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 104 RAYSTOWN LAKE 2 COOP 104 HUNTINGDON COOP 104 HAMBURG COOP 104 ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 Allentown Area ThreadEx 104 FORD CITY 4 S DAM COOP 104 CHAMBERSBURG 1 ESE COOP 104 WEST CHESTER 2 NW COOP 104 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 104 WILLIAMSPORT 2 COOP 104 SELINSGROVE PENN VALLEY AP WBAN 104

July finished at 12 lowest in the Arctic for extent which was close to last year.

The southern stream low is less phased with the northern stream so the deeper moisture from the south stays separate this run. The OP Euro can sometimes be overamped. Now looks like a regular frontal passage with the typical scattered convection.

That has been their average August monthly low since 2010. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Saranac Lake Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Aug Season Mean 36 36 2023 36 36 2022 37 37 2021 37 37 2020 37 37 2019 35 35 2018 36 36 2017 32 32 2016 37 37 2015 39 39 2014 36 36 2013 34 34 2012 32 32 2011 40 40 2010 36 36

No days reaching 90° at Newark during the first week of August since 1991 has resulted in only 1-7 days reaching 90° for the whole month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Aug 1 to Aug 7 90° days for August 2023-08-07 84 ? 1996-08-07 85 1 2013-08-07 87 3 2003-08-07 87 7 1992-08-07 87 4 2014-08-07 89 2 2004-08-07 89 2 1998-08-07 89 7

West Point finishes with the most extreme rainfall around the region. Time Series Summary for WEST POINT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2023 18.12 3 2 1897 13.05 0 3 2016 11.02 0 4 1945 10.21 0 5 1960 9.64 0 6 2018 9.27 0 7 1996 9.00 0 8 1984 8.65 0 9 1975 7.91 0 10 1994 7.72 0 - 1938 7.72 0

Not sure why you say that. It gives you the 10 highest temperatures for the month which is all that we really are concerned with in compiling a temperature record for a given location. The first table below is ranked by year. The 2nd table is dense rank and shows the 10 highest temperatures and the months. Rank for ten warmest years Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 4 2020 76.9 0 5 2022 76.8 0 - 2019 76.8 0 7 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 9 2011 76.6 1 10 2023 76.4 2 - 2012 76.4 0 Dense Rank 10 warmest temperatures Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 2 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 0 4 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 5 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 7 2023 76.4 2 7 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 8 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 9 1949 76.2 0 10 1995 76.0 6

That’s why dense rank sorting for temperature records gives a much better perspective. https://www.voltactivedata.com/blog/2016/12/rank-dense-rank/ What if there are 5 contestants whose score is 100? How will we decide among them? One plausible way, in the absence of other deciding factors, would be to list all 5 as number one, awarding 5 first place prizes. If the first two scores are both 100, and the next is 99 is the contestant with score 99 the second or the third? In a baseball league the contestant with 99 would be third. In a contest where we care about scores more than contestants who achieve the scores, the 99 would be the second score. This might happen if we were looking at high temperatures in cities, and we care about the temperature numbers more than the cities that attained them. For shorthand in this note, call the first ranking the baseball ranking, and the second the temperature ranking The NWS is New York uses dense rank sorting for top 10 temperature records. So there can be more than 10 years attaining a top 10 for warmest or coldest. But they haven’t updated for the numerous top 10 warmest months since they last updated in 2021. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf

We could have used that June Hudson Bay block during January or February.

The July average minimum temperatures have the highest rankings around the edges with a cool spot in the middle. https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?date=2023-07-20&var=avgt&thresh=climper&period=MTD&map_display=rank&showthrdx=true&region=conus#

It hasn’t been hot across a large portion of the mid US. But there has been record heat along the edges from Maine to Arizona and Florida. The individual rankings tell a more complete story since the 1991-2020 climate normals are so warm compared to previous 30 year intervals. Many places can approach top 10 warmth these days by just going +2 against these warmer normals. I guess the U.S is getting off relative easy this month compared to the rest of the planet.

Probably due to the higher pressure east of New England turning the flow more onshore since 2015. Newark has had 3 top 5 years for 90s since then. JFK hasn’t had any top 5 years since then. JFK needs westerly flow for a high number of 90° days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0

It’s always going to be easier getting high 90° day counts further from the shore like we saw last summer. Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 50 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 50 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 48 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 48 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 43 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 42 LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT COOP 41 NORRISTOWN COOP 40 for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 49 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 CANOE BROOK COOP 47 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 40

Some of our fastest growing cities are in really hot climates. Increasing urbanization plus global warming adds to the adaptation challenge. They are going to have to get creative.

Yeah, their average minimum was around +3 warmer this month than the next warmest low temperature July set back in 2020. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.1 2 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0

Caribou is expected to finally drop below 55° in the coming days.

Yeah, by a few degrees. Both were at record levels this month over 110°. Not a fun place to spend the summer.

All the upper 80s days at the local warm spots become low 90s when you factor in the high dew points pushing the heat index into the low 90s for the monthly daily high temperature average. Even JFK gets closer to 90 when you factor in the record high dew points. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

At XMACIS2. The departures were largely driven by so many top 5 average warm minimum monthly temperatures around the region with the near to record high dew points. So the perception by some was that it wasn’t that hot of a month since there were no 100s and the 90 day count wasn’t as high as some recent years. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html