daxx

10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think we are going to need some fancy stuff to happen with the Icon as well as it is north of Texas with the SLP at 60.

I'm sure you will take the 12z icon. Snow, ice and some rain.North and west pounded!

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And that's because by that time all of the pieces are on shore? 

I'm not really a big fan of the on shore theory.  I'm sure some people might disagree. I just think we will be inside 48 hours of the onset of this and models will be keyed in better. Even then there are shifts but you know that. Lol

Thanks for the kind words guys. I'm thinking tomorrow at 12z we start taking models more serious.   For now it's good to see good trends.

Biggest takeaway is a nice front end thump.  North and west of Harrisburg does great.

We do go above freezing in lsv for awhile but not torched. We see some rain then cold rushes in.

This close to snow then ice scenario 

He 102 to 105 850 above lsv. Surface is much colder

He 99 mod snow 850 to Maryland line

96 much better than 12z snowing good. 850 still south

Hour 90 light snow moving in

Euro kind of weak for Thursday night. Maybe 1 to 2.

2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

there you are!  I figured you might be interested  in this run given the sudden improvement in the GFS.  We still have the UKIE and its solution.  I will thank you in advance for your dedicated efforts, however I will have to partake in the AM.  BTW, what time do you estimate the euro would be out to the storm timeframe?  I don't think I can force myself to stay up much longer even though I'm a night person.

My guess between 110 and 115

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

:-) Thanks Daxx. 

Hopefully we can make this happen!  I'm just looking for shift in the right direction. 

2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I think daxx is someone who can do it but I have no idea if he's around.  I'm just about ready to head off for the night.  I can wait for either the disappointment or jubilation in the morning...lol.  I'll know by the number of new unread posts.

I'm up I will fill you in.

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

flatter look at 500 at 90.  We'll know soon enough

Much better front end!

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, now it will be very interesting to see how the next UKMET plays out for sure.

 I would say it comes north.  How much is the key.

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Lost the ICON. Not that I think it matters. 

Yea icon fun to look at, that's about it.

Still get some snow and ice but it is headed wrong way. At least this run.

Icon jumps north. Not good for us. 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

If no one has said it recently, thanks for sharing this early info especially the EC updates.  

Not a problem.

Gfs looking good for Thursday night 1to3.  Some lucky spots might see 4.

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Ah, I did say qpf.  My fault.  I noted in an edit that some of that on the weekend is snow on the icon but seems to have trended a but more wet vs. 12Z.

After precip starts Saturday 2m temps never go above freezing on icon.

Just now, bubbler86 said:

So 2" seems to be the call of the day from NAM, RGEM and Icon.

That's total qpf for both.

2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The icon has it snowing from about 9PM until 6AM.  Total qpf is not out yet on TT.

From 1.5 to 2 inches.  That's with Friday morning.

Little higher in some places

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Anything for snow buddy! Enjoy...

Thanks I don't have to be back to the Hill until next Wednesday.