daxx

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

looked like 31 to my untrained eyes

925s and 850s warm slightly above freezing for lsv Friday night.

Gfs looking even better tomorrow.   Tomorrow night it has really increased qpf as well.Temps a little warm for my liking for Friday night.

19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am coming down to Mount Joy with the wife tomorrow to visit her uncle in Hospice. Will be nice to see Lancaster county covered in snow.

9 inches up here yesterday with over 2 feet on the ground. Good weekend to come up if you are a sledder.

Sorry to hear about your family member. Have a safe trip. I Made that trip many times from down here to the Tug. That area truly is a special place.

3 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

tickity tickity tock anything Euro can suck on my _ _ _ _ anthing Canadian too the f3v is poo poopity poopity ploop

So... are you saying use the gfs?

Euro looking good for Friday. Bubblers call for 2 to 4 looks good.  Sunday/Monday storm definitely colder than 12z.  Warning  snow for central and northern pa.  For us in lsv getting closer but still a good amount of rain, especially as you head southeast.  Another push southeast and us on the edge will be in the game .

1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

Also you had mentioned Miller B's earlier this week.  The more I watch the NAM's evolution of Friday the more I see this being considered a type of Hybrid/Miller B vs. just simply a slug of moisture streaming over us.  The coastal is really negatively affecting areas of East Central PA as to accums. 

I was actually thinking a true Miller b where we get very little and to our northeast gets slammed.  That does not look to be happening at all.  

13 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Kind of a strange setup we got a dusting this morning and will another dusting overnight. And then tomorrow night you get snow from another separate wave but it combines with our first wave.

I think your in good spot for the Sunday storm as of right now. 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Ha, thanks.  In all fairness I was initially keying in on Wed for similar reasons as Friday...a slug of moisture meandering around the lower Tennessee valley/Southeast though the stuff yesterday and today was further south which helped lead to it never getting picked up.  I am a tad surprised Friday has not been tracked more on this forum and why I posted a few “Hey, don’t forget Friday” posts earlier this week. .  Maybe everyone is tired of these 2-4” events.  Here is the Euro map from the MA and ironically it is flipped vs. my forecast.  2-4 for the Candersons and Blizz’s of the forum and 1-3 for Cash and I.

 

 

If you look at temps and qpf your call of 2 to 4 looks good to me.  

Bubbler l gotta give it you.  You have been on this threat from the start. 

18z euro definitely took a step in the right direction for Friday. 2 to 4 for most of us in lsv. 

21 minutes ago, paweather said:

should we do a Hail Mary pass right now and hope for the best?

I don't know if we are that desperate yet. The 12z eps run was pretty decent out to the 11th or 12th of March.  I'll take that run and be happy.

If we happen to get some snow out of this it is definitely sticking around next week.   It is going to be damn cold for the first week of March!

The Euro eps mean is colder than the ops for the Sunday/Monday storm.  Will have to see individuals. 

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Suppression, or no vorts at all? 

A little piece of energy Thursday to our west but fizzles.   Day ten has something brewing then again it's day ten.

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Brian I get it completely and agree. It's been one of the most difficult 20"+ seasons i can ever remember, and i allowed myself to get fully invested in the upcoming time period. It seems like each day another piece gets pulled out of our puzzle and pretty soon i'm going to have a nice frame with nothing left inside of it. 

Thing is...things could look totally different at this time tomorrow!

Or at 18z.  

Oh absolutely!   If you ask me euro is good but definitely not perfect.  I still think we might see something Friday.

After the Sunday storm euro is dry and very cold all week. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That's not funny, it's depressing. Sometimes it just doesn't work out. We'll keep watching and hoping but yeah...

Mike I'm always looking for snow but at this point if it doesn't happen I just have to  laugh it off.  I'm done getting depressed this Winter. I'm sitting at 24.7 for the year, I wanted to reach 30. Hopefully I make it but If I don't on to next winter.

Euro is a nice northern pa snowstorm Sunday into Monday.   At least our mud will freeze up afterward down here. Lol

I had 5 minutes of very gusty winds around 6 last evening. After that it was windy but nothing special.  

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

I have a model question. How can they all nail a high wind event a week out without wavering yet for moisture they waffle all over god’s green earth even at the last moment (like tonight with northern PA not getting the rain amounts previously forecasted)?

I don’t live on front street,so most of my wind events underperform. I’m sure I’ll have some small branches down but that will be the extent of it. Rain on the other hand I do well, especially this past year. 

I do believe Blizz we score something in the next two weeks it might be a 1 to 3 or something even better.  We are getting close to the end, so I will take whatever snow we get.  Hopefully your positive mojo brings us the big one!

34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The EPS continued to look good for our winter storm chances. The first possibility is next weekend, but the better chance could be a couple of days later. We should have a good 2 week window to score more snow. Almost all of the snow on the EPS is between day 7 & day 15.

That looks great for the Adirondacks and Maine.  I might have to plan a trip!

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hoping the storm incoming day #10 is the one...

Right now I fear Miller b for these events, plenty of time still not to be.

3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Just saw the map posted on MA.  Surpisingly warm at 850 and 2M almost as if there was another LP cutting to the west. 

 

There is a weak low to the west a couple frames before.