daxx

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did just notice some colder temps at MDT, 34 York which apparently had some clouds breaking and down to 31.  That's something at least. 

I'm at 30.7 right now.

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There seems to be a consensus at this time with the global ensembles today. The LSV looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch of snow range, with amounts increasing the further north & east that you go in PA.

 

No surprise here.

Euro has some light snow and flurries Wednesday morning.   It is also close to something at the end of the week.  Plenty of time for that one.

I'm truly rooting for you guys to get crushed!  I believe someone in cny to eastern ny will come in with some big totals. I am really looking forward to my Tug Hill trip in early February. You folks live in a special area. Good luck up there!

As of right now northeast pa is in for a true winter storm.  I wish I had off work.  Down here looks blah. It could change but I'm not counting on It.  

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro looks pretty close to something for us...

Yes...It looks interesting.   Waa precip looks much better than gfs frozen wise.  It even has some good precip on Monday. I still have my doubts for backside on Monday.  Hopefully it works out and we get frozen both days.

For us further southwest, we really need the waa to over perform.   I am not sold on any ccb action down in this area.

Its starting to look like northeast pa might be in for a decent snowfall later this weekend.  Hopefully Voyager's area can cash in on it!

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

You are correct and that coupled w/ the warmer looks at 500 are exactly why I'm suspicious, and why my eyebrow was stuck in lift postion.  When parsing over, I saw the 850 anomalies vs 500's is just didnt seem to fit.  Too early for the cold to hold IMO.  LIke i said, it doesnt scream torch, but it doesnt scream frosty pumpkins either.  I'm  ok with what is currently depicted as you stated, anything below 75 is tolerable...for now.

If anyone one on here is thinking frost and cold to settle in, then they are in for a huge letdown. If your expecting more typical fall weather then you should be happy.  Reds and oranges at 500 does not always indicate heat. Surface temps can be quite different. Which you have already explained. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm ready! I cannot believe how much warm it's gotten since I left for work this morning. This sucks. One more day...

Could not agree more!   It is really going to feel great.

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just looked at the 12Z Euro on an El-Cheapo model site, for this time next week, and temps in the 40's mid afternoon.

 

 

It also drops between two and three inches of rain over most of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

When I want a quick look at trends without having to scroll through models I look at the Accuweather month long Outlook, which I think is just the GFS in graphic format, and nit indeed does advertise that anything resembling Summer weather is done for the year tomorrow.

 

 

We will see some warm days but persistent warmth is looking less and less likely.  After tomorrow's heat I think most of us on here will be happy. 

36 minutes ago, canderson said:

Harrisburg should break an all-time high tomorrow, then the weekend will be nice and cool, then starting early next week then ext 10 or so days will all be solidly above average temps. We're not getting a fall this year, except for a few days scattered around. 

The highest temperature I see on the 00z Euro next week is on Monday.  It has mdt reaching 70.  The rest of the week is below that. The gfs is cooler than euro. Not a bad fall week at all.  We should see some rain as well. 

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Looking over ensembles, a week from today looks to be starting into a cooler regime, as 2m air temps have blues starting to show up w/ some gusto.  Also seems to be showing some chances for appreciable precip into second week of Oct.  If verified, looks like some nice fall weather coming up once we get to latter part of next week.  Might have to dust off of my model watching websites.  :).

Nut 

Yes sir...We are starting to see some good signs that this endless summer is coming to an end.  

24 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea, good day indeed.

Long range euro has torch through end of October. 

The Euro ops goes to October 4th and yes most of next week is a torch.  The eps goes out to October 9th and not as torchy towards the end of its run.  Gfs definitely cools us down in the long  range. 

45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Chances of rain on Monday seem to be decreasing somewhat. 

As others have said, let's not waste a good weather pattern now. It might as well be warm and dry now so by the time we get to December we're rocking.

Right? 

Absolutely!   A/C until November 30th.  Buried alive December 1st.  

13 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Snow maps have returned to North America!

Our time is coming up soon !

 

Blizz already posting snow maps in September! Dear god help us!

I had a low of 43 this morning.  Now we embrace summer again.

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I agree with this!

A Below normal temperature pattern does not do us any good until mid November!

The days of heat are numbered. I’m getting ready to start winter weather tracking in another 2 months !

Yes... I'm not worrying about warm weather this time of year.  Give me a good pattern when it counts.  Don't get me wrong I would prefer it much cooler but I'm not sweating it right now.  Definitely a warm period coming up but some models are backing off on a on endless heat.

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro is only wrong when showing a January coastal bomb 6 days out. 

We're going to be baking again...

Haha!  Very true.   I am looking at it this way, let us bake until mid November.   After that let Winter begin and last until April.

9 hours ago, sauss06 said:

Could be 90 by next weekend. 

we                                                   need                                       rain

12z Euro 2m temps.

Saturday 87

Sunday 89

Monday 92

Tuesday 88

Wednesday 96

These temperatures are for MDT.  Rainfall looks next to nothing.  Hopefully Euro is wrong!

1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Since you all are the only real active thread in PA, when is this relief supposed to arrive? Overnight? It still feels humid as heck to me-and the AC is broke at work so the last 3 days have been misery! It seems every fall it’s hot into November....

Not to sure of your location but central and eastern pa will receive the most benefits from this front. A nice easterly flow off the Atlantic. Southwest pa will see the least amount of cooling from the front. To answer your question overnight.   From northeast to southwest.  If the gfs is right we might see some decent relief middle of next week and beyond. Euro is different with tropical weather just off the coast and less of a cooldown. 

I had some loud thunder around 2:30 this morning.  It looks like I picked up 0.48" from it.

Just had a nice 30 second downpour here. Really looking forward to our one day of comfortable  temperatures on Friday. 

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Obviously I would prefer that, but I’m realistic.

Yea...I’m hard to please when it comes to temps. 80 to 85 degree temps with low humidity just doesn’t cut it for me in September.  Maybe in July or August.