daxx

What a wet week ahead. Another big soaker Friday night and Saturday morning.  Maybe a couple inches to several inches of rain this week. December rain sucks!

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've been following/tracking this weekend and haven't said much mainly because these setups do not enthuse me...we don't usually do well down this way with this type of situation. Can we get accumulating snow? Absolutely. Experience over many years tells me to be leery. However, I'm speaking specifically for MY location...I'd feel much better about snow chances closer to the I-81 corridor. 

I hate cold chasing precip. 

Very true. We have seen this fail many times around here.  There is times we do luck out but I'm not counting on it.  Im sure there are some on here that would be happy with another coating. I'm hoping for at least an inch.  

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm looking forward to getting the upgraded coating which includes roads.

I'm actually being sort of serious...I've always felt that snow seems...more legit when it accumulates on all surfaces.

Absolutely...If we are going to keep getting coatings, let's get temperatures to drop a few more degrees. 

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's trying to do the same here...

The year of the coating!

Snowing nicely here light coating already.

Picked up .3 last night brings me to 1.8 for the season so far.  

Just now, anotherman said:

Hey, that’s more like a heavy coating. Gonna get smoked!

It is the same color as smoke.

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s the latest HRRR snow map for tonight. @Bubbler86 & I officially accept this run!

That's not the latest.

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Nice band rolled through between 11:30 and 12:30. Had the temperature been below freezing for the duration you would have seen a little more this morning given the rates. I ended up with a solid coating which had mostly melted by morning.

Yea had a dusting this morning.  

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam, RGEM and Euro keep advertising a coating + of snow for the LSV tonight. 

Yea I’ll take it. After our early week spike next week it looks like we might have some chances at some snow with the pattern setting up.  Definitely looks colder in the lr on some models. I’ll take nickels and dimes any day for December. It sure would better than the last couple years.  

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sorry I wasn't clear...I'm not talking about CTP's maps, I'm talking about snow maps from models. I think @daxx actually kept track of how much snow he was to get based on one of the weather models last year (might have been the Euro) and it was over 300". 

Yea I despise snowfall maps. I know they look pretty and all but by the end of the season you will most like have far less than what was shown.  Unless you live on tug hill or any of the snow belts. Anyway 18z Euro is not what we saw at 12z.  We still see some snow but nothing like the 12z had. North and east still looks good. Need to start looking at short term models now.

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Poor Voyager.

Yea...I forgot he was driving in that. Yikes!

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That is what is exciting about tomorrow. I have zero expectations (and no one else in our immediate area should) so with that, it will  be fun to see if we have a few passing rain/snow showers, a few inches of snow, or something in between. 

Yes...It will be fun just to watch it evolve on radar.  Folks northeast of us are all but a lock for a nice snowfall.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I guess since I am more focused on snow I was looking at the second half.  Those 500MB maps the last few days have screamed for attention though I still worry about it being too warm. 

For sure, just been bitten too many times with this setup.  I and we still might be. I will be happy just to see some snow in December.  Our December's have really sucked in recent years.

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think it was something they probably should have been warning about a few days but everyone's focus was on today when today was never really a threat with the warm weather preceding it. An inch or two of snow and no one will say much but a plow-able snow will bring about complaints. 

I'm not going to lie a couple days ago I thought our only hope was the waa precip.   The way it looks now I was wrong.  Then again the models could be baiting us in only to rip our hearts out tomorrow. Lol

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One thing I am going to point out...IF (stated in all Cap's with all the usual disclosures of what IF means) Lanco or really anyone in the LSV gets 4-6" of snow tomorrow and the rates are street stick worthy the NWS is going to be dished out some disdain.  The Zone's say rain/snow showers ending by 1PM with a high of 41.  Tomorrow is still a fairly buys travel day. 

This is all happening pretty fast on models.  Last night I had very little interest with setup. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like I picked a great day to work from home.  

Lucky you!  Still not set in stone where this sets up but it definitely has my attention now.

I'm starting to get excited for tomorrow.   Euro looked pretty damn good.  It has snow falling almost all day tomorrow.  

I have good amount of sleet mixing in with the rain here.

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon is sort of on board as well though a bit warmer so the precip is there but not as much coverage of snow. 

If we get any kind of intense band over us, I would not worry too much about surface temps. If it is a lot of light junk then yes. Of course the band would have to sit over an area for a time to cool everything down.  Right now I'm hoping to see snow fall from the sky.  Anything more would be great.  I picked up 1.4 inches last weekend on a fluke event,  maybe we can do the same here.

Show me that map late tonight and I will literally cry happy tears! Lol

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just ripped this gem of an HRRR run from the Mid Atlantic thread that was recently posted there.

 

If only the hrrr was accurate this far out. Sigh!

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Might not be a lot of accumulation but it could be a fun little dynamic event for a while.

Exactly!  But if some areas can stay in the more intense banding for awhile they may squeeze out a couple inches.  It will be fun to watch it develop.

I think the odds are increasing for parts of the lsv tomorrow to see at least some snow.  If some areas can manage to stay under any intense bad for awhile, they might squeeze out a couple inches.  Hopefully we all can cash in a little. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Get some temps into the mid to upper 20's then we have some chaos. Seems some of these temps are a few degrees below modeled. 

Like you said, some breaks in the cloud cover here. Once they thicken back up I'm sure they will rise some.