daxx

EPS and gefs  are moving in the right direction today.  Let’s see if we can hold or improve those looks over the next couple days. 

My last comment was not for anyone specific in our sub.  It just seems when people start hearing the big dogs talk about the long range going up in flames,  some people fall apart. I’m not going to lie I felt a little on edge with yesterday’s runs at 12z.  So a little guilty here. When you start hearing discussions of a bad pattern until late January, that to me is nonsense.  Too far out to say something like that in my opinion. 

It gives us snow.  I’m not sure I like how it does it. Low goes into Michigan. Still long range looking better. All the panic a couple days ago! Lol

My favorite spring snowstorm was March 21, 2018. Two part storm. Ended up with 18.7 inches. 

57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There was s surprise snow storm in March, very late 80's or early 90', where the forecast the night before was partly cloudy and I woke up to a Winter Storm Warning that next day for 4 or more inches.  It was a slop fest of a storm but surprise WSW's are unheard of anymore. 

 

 

For me January 25, 2000 is the biggest surprise storm. Watching that radar I just knew the forecast was going to fail. In a good way! Models totally blew it.  

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1. March 1993 1(18" of snow, 65mph wind, 4" of sleet. I had a solid snow cover for 15 days in mid-March. Likely never again)

2. January 1996 (30.5", ended up with 44" for the week)

3. February 1983 (5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm, heaviest snow I've ever seen. Ended up with 24.5") 

 

Brian, I have a hard time ranking that week in January 1996 with February 2010. I had the same amount of snow both weeks. 

 

 

2009-2010 definitely had the most snow for a season total. It beat 96 by 1.5 inches. At least at my house.

1: January 1996

2: January  2016

3: February  2003

Those are all storm favorites. 

The best stretch for me is February 2010. Back to back major storms. Snow depth was incredible. 

25 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Also you'll leave me as the only heat miser, need my mentor around haha

We need him here to battle the  snow weenies.  In all seriousness he is a good dude, and hope he reconsiders.

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Voyager out. I guess I'll stick to lurking and just post obs and keep my opinions to myself.

Why would you do that?Get it off your chest!  Then Get back to weather.

No mention of the 360 hour snowstorm on 18z gfs.  Mostly joking, but that sure is pretty to look at. 

I'm not gonna lie.  I feel much better seeing the eps run after that terrible gefs run. Sigh of relief, for now. Lol

The eps from Nye onward looks much better than it's 00z run.  I won't discuss much since its past hour 240. It brings the cold and storm chances.

I should probably say higher heights in the east, trough out west.  There is no high pressure in the southeast. 

The eps looks terrible through hour 240.  Trough out west ridge in the east. If we luck into snow I will be the first to call it the Bubbler storm.  

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I agree that there's no way it is a good look.  Its just better than the rest of this year IMO.  Two weeks ago we had great looks for the Dec 15th-Dec 30th time frame (estimating dates)  and it ended up being a combo of false info and bad timing.    All we need a piece of energy to eject out of the far S/W and not be bullied to cut.  The ridge can gently moving it N/E without cutting. 

Absolutely!  We can score with this.  In two days I'm sure it will look totally different. Euro is definitely not a torch.  As you said some minor adjustments and we could have minor/moderate event. Euro through 240 hours the highest 2m temp I can see is 50 on the 23.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Maybe I am reading the map wrong but isn't the surface boundary/freezing line close to our locale through much of the first 5 days of January?  Its a smoothed out average but not sure I will call it a toaster bath.  I see the 850's anomaly's are up but not nearly as much as what we have coming next week.  

Nope...you are reading it right.  850s riding the md line or close by is not a very good look if you ask me.  Thing I don't  like is the trough out west and ridge in the east almost the whole run. If that's a good look then I need to stop posting.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

My spin is that it gives us a better chance at bowling ball type lows and we sneak in a frozen event with seasonal temps despite the Pacific spewing all over us.   If one wants arctic air then the american suite has absolutely none after we are done here in the next couple days.  The pole is completely shut off. But I think it could still get cold enough for snow in the right situation.  I am frustrated with constant train of waves going up to our west. 

Sure we could luck our way into snow. No doubt.  

Maybe a new look at 00z. Maybe the Euro and the eps show better look. 

I tried real hard to find a positive in that gefs run. Sorry...I just can't. 

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Looking at the GEFS it appears that next weeks 'warm up' still remains centered on 23-24, and once to Christmas and beyond Bubblers suggestion of zonal looks like a good call. 

The good is that no real warmth appears in the offing, but the bad is that the pattern is not one that has a stormy look to it.  Once beyond Santa day, the Op and the Ens seem to diverge on 500 flow....that can be good (if one believes Ens)....or bad (if the Op is onto something).  For now, i'm sticking with my it aint great or horrible mindset and we'll see how that can be tweaked once beyond this weekend.

 

 

I thought 12z gefs looked terrible. It keeps the trough out west and pumps heights up here in the east. 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was in Carlisle that Winter and the snow was a bit more powdery from my memory but we also lost power.  That was one of the chillier nights of sleep I can remember.  Got down into the low 40's in the house.  Probably forced @Itstrainingtime to give the A/C a break as well.

It was so wet and dense, Christmas night temps dropped and you could walk on top of ten inches of snow. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Ah hah! That is what i remember...sort of lol (I didn't remember the snow/sleet on the 24th, but I do remember the rain to snow deal) 

Yea...video taped a lot of that storm. I had standing water in parts of the yard that morning.  The best rain to snow event ever here.

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Waited for the dreaded changeover that never came.   It WAS a true Christmas miracle. 

Getting stuck w/ snowmobiles in tow while en route to parents.....not a miracle.

I'd give body parts for a redux.

In my area over here we had an inch of snow and sleet the day before.  Then we had a driving poring rain early Christmas morning.  Then it switched over that morning, ended up with 10.7 inches of cement. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

10" of wet paste...I lost power that day for hours. Can't believe I forgot, thanks...

Yea...I had no power for two days.  All our fish died in our aquarium from the upstairs of our house being so cold.  I believe at the beginning of the event ratios were like 5 to 1.

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Terrific post. All true words. Other than 1/6/1996 and 12/18/2009, the cupboard is pretty bare on significant snows before the middle of January. Those are our facts...

Now, as  the COPP of this bunch, that doesn't mean I don't want it sooner during our peak low sun angle season. 

(COPP - Chief Of Pack Preservation) 

You cant forget Christmas 2002!!  Probably the best Christmas storm of all time.