daxx

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Good post Brian! My wife and kids reaped 22" from that good patern 3 weeks ago. I agree that good times are ahead...sometime.

There is no way I would have missed that if I had any chance of going.  Hopefully they took a lot of pictures. 

Before December 14, we were  in a good pattern.  It did not snow here the first two weeks of December , but the pattern was not bad.  You don't always get snow just because the pattern is good.  We have had snow in some pretty bad patterns as well.  We have been a shutout pattern for a little over two weeks now.  We have nothing to show for the good period we were in, but Virginia and the Carolinas do. It would be nice to have wall to wall winter but, around here can't expect that.  There is a lot of Winter left I think we will be fine.

Just now, pasnownut said:

once we turn the calendar, the overnight GEFS and fv3 really take on a wintery look at 500mb.  longwave pattern w/ big ridge out west and trough digging for the deep south in the east.  Looks like cold would be no problem, just need the stj to be close enough to throw some energy into it...or it would be clipper city.

Yes.... it's soon time to start tracking.   After this late week rain I think we will be tracking Winter weather.   They might not be all snow, but it's way better than what we have had. 

That's kind of scary calling for only one week of cold and snow for January. I think he might be just a tad off on that forecast. If he is right I hope we have 50 inches that week!

Hey Blizz...12z euro has your Christmas miracle! Nothing huge, but nice for Christmas. 

Here is my two cents so far on this Winter.  November this year acted like a Winter month we had a great storm and lots of below normal temps.  December so far not so great. It hasn't been a furnace, but snowfall wise blah.  We just missed a big ticket storm last week which would have made a big difference around here. It is mid December and we are looking at a possible two to three week crap pattern. In a crap pattern we may luck out and score, but I would not count on it. If January, February, and March produce which I think they will, December will be a distant memory.   Snow around the holidays is great, but not common.  Anyway too much talking from me.  Lots of Winter to go!  I think we will all be happy when this Winter ends.

2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Someone other than Mt. Joy and Manheim, please...people need a break.

I don't need it over this way.  Roads and bridges are still closed over here.

3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

With convective activity comes surprises, Horst alluded to that this morning. While he's calling for general .75" - 2" totals he also notes that some areas could receive more. If any one area gets under multiple bands...

Those high pwats over two inches working up from the south could lead to crazy rainfall rates if convection fires up!  Someone will get a lot of rain.

I'm all rained out!  Send it north,south,east, or west. We have had so much rain this year, it almost feels abnormal when it's not raining. I'm ready for our first frost and freeze.

26 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Very...quite a large area had 10"-15" amounts, and if memory serves me correctly the ground was already saturated.

Yep your memory is correct.   Irene rained on us just before Lee hit. 

I had 47 this morning, very nice.  So far the first twelve days of June I have received 7.44 inches rain.  It's been soggy, but I will take the rain over 90 degrees and humid any day.

Northernchateau "base camp"

And here you have the Tug Hill! It makes our weather seem like true Spring. 

51 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

CTP has hoisted WWA's for the northern tier counties for 2"-4" of snow overnight into tomorrow morning. On 4/18-4/19...unreal. 

Yea... nice extended Winter.  Only five more months until fall!

I had a storm total of 2.04" of rain.  

23 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

My AC is ready. If it's going to be that hot outside i will seek respite in my 65 degree home.  

I agree way too hot. I'm just glad it is only for a couple days.  It looks like we head back below normal after our rainstorm.

7 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I parked my Tahoe outside last night as i was working on a large project in my garage. The damn doors were frozen this morning. It looked like huge ice chunks frozen on my windshield too. I wasn't a happy camper this morning. 

All will be forgotten on Friday.  The 12z nam has us approaching 80 on Friday afternoon! 

Lol!! I was thinking about that earlier. At least we are seeing snowfall with this, much better than the weekend disaster! 

I'm just staring out the window watching the snow fall, and thinking this can't be April 9th. 

22 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I kind of thought Monday/Tuesday was going to be a mixed mess.

This has been an odd winter for the models. The storm a few weeks ago that cheated a lot of us, I'm still shaking my head on that one.

Monday's system still has plenty of time to change. Not sure if it will be better or worse.   The one thing I don't like is the cold is kinda blah.  850s might say it's cold enough, but many other layers too warm.  Get a stronger storm and good track with a better high placement then maybe. Even then I would favor mostly north and west of lsv.

 For the Monday and Tuesday storm the euro has a low off the North Carolina coast moving out to sea.  We get some light precip, nothing exciting.

1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

Anything for next week on any guidance?

Cmc gets good precip into our, then slams sne. Euro not out far enough yet.

Not sure if anyone cares, but Euro is basically a non event.

Just now, maytownpawx said:

It's not we're missing out...no one gets much anymore.

I was really hoping someone in the south would make out with this, but right now that is fading fast.

12z gfs is nothing but a strong cold front. Some light snow and flurries in the air.

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

It feels so much worse than it is because February was brutal. March and February swapped spots - heck April to date is much more wintery than February was even. 

Agree... February was a disaster!   It was not a start to finish Winter, but most years are not. I say overall it was a decent Winter.