daxx

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Read several mets who've said the same thing. People see 10" painted over their house and assume it's snow, when it reality a whole crap load of it is sleet. 

I'm telling people at work to expect 1" - 3" here before the flip. Right now I see no reason to change that, and if i do I will. 

I think that is a great call!

The 06z Euro moved north some leading to much less ice. It even takes 850 above state college for some time. I would really be careful with snow maps I think sleet is really contaminating them for some areas. Just my opinion. 

Just now, paweather said:

 

below zero down here. :-) 

Yes

Damn cold Monday morning!  Has most of us below zero!

Nice thump to start. It is close to being a lot of ice in lsv. Temps in low 30s. Central and northern pa have best shot at big snow. Could be a lot of sleet in between.

5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Daxx...you might be up doing the PBP by yourself later...lol.  Don't feel obligated on our part, especially while on vacation!

Sounds good. See you tomorrow.

Just now, bubbler86 said:

I think it is good for trends and within a day or two of an event, which we are not at now, I will take it over anything else except maybe the HRRR.   It's QPF totals are usually too high. 

I look at the nam for thermals that's about it.  Especially this far out.

It's fun to look at the nam but it is borderline silly to even take it serious for the Saturday storm.

It is really close to it's 12z run just some small changes. Less snow for us down in lsv.

18z Euro only going out to 7am  Sunday looks a little warmer than it's 12z run today. Surface really close in lsv.  Front end thump not as robust. State college and Williamsport seem like good spots for a decent snow. 12z and 18z honing in on that area. 

4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

May I ask, do you do the hobby stormvista subscription or is there something better? 

Only downfall I'm not allowed to post maps.

2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

May I ask, do you do the hobby stormvista subscription or is there something better? 

Just hobby, 20 dollars a month.

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

The new GFS just started running so maybe it can uncancel it. 

Nope! Rainstorm 

Just now, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  Wonky evolution between 78 and 90 IMO.  To me it looks like it just has some "catching up" to do.  LP thru 84 was well under us, and that to my eye is what is "wonky".  

Yes this is what the gfs does.  Now watch it be the final outcome. I highly doubt it will be.

Just now, pasnownut said:

@78 540's back slightly NW. MSLP due east of 12z to southern tip of WVA.  If it comes under, we should recover.

We don't recover.  The low right over top of us.  The gfs might start catching on at 00z tomorrow night.  I would not sweat it at all.

I gotta roll guys on vacation with family. I'll be on for late night.

Mag, Williamsport and 2001 should be dancing in the streets with that run!

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

MA crew saying west of Frederick never gets above freezing.   

Yea... This run is looking more of a snow to ice back to some snow

Highest I see is 32 at Harrisburg early Sunday morning.  A little warmer south of there.

Surface actually gets above freezing a good bit north Sunday morning.

Scratch that not far north at all

After that north and west get a beat down. Lsv surface close to ice. Still warms above freezing

90 850 goes above southern parts lsv

Hour 87 nice thump

Hour 84 snowing for all 850 still south

Sorry guys enjoying whiteout conditions right now.  Euro looks really weak with first event. Maybe inch or two