daxx

Fv3 is a nice hit for many.  

Gfs moved a good amount south for Sunday. Lighter on the qpf as well. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Tomorrow night? Do tell please...

Not just one nam but both!  2 to 4 tomorrow.  Maybe that again tomorrow night.  If temps trend well I could see more.  Im going to see where the rest of the models go before i get to excited.

Well the nam just took it up a notch tomorrow night!  Pretty big hit with snow tomorrow night for lsv.

I’ll take the gfs still showing 2 to 4 tomorrow. Tomorrow night it juiced up a fair amount.  A little too warm in the mids.   Sunday a touch colder than 12z. Right now I will take any positive moves on the models. 

14 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think it really looks a lot like the Euro from a day or two ago.  I think much of the difference between the Nam and say a better solution for Sunday, like the Icon, is the second system (Friday night) and how it progresses.  I think someone mentioned that today...maybe Nut...that the Sunday solution is going to be made or broken by wave 2.   Wave 2 needs to be our block. 

If the icon nails these three events I might consider moving to Germany. 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes he is. Brian knows his stuff...trust me. 

Thanks Mike but if you ask me we all  contribute in a great way here. This is definitely a great subforum.

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Is this to suggest that Daxx is a met?  

Lol not even close!

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Exactly! You'll be working all weekend.  

Haha you are right. Every time we get snow I work.

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

So did you already run out and tell all your weather forcasting customers that the GEFS shows 2 feet for Sunday!  You will have the Patriot News web site drawing snow threat maps again.  LOL

If that was just for this weekend I would not be getting any sleep at all! Lol

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea, sorry if there was any confusion.  This is an average ensemble map that I thought Daxx was referring to. Not a storm forecast.  Some might call these clown maps considering the source.  

Yep that's what I was talking about.  Not that I believe it  but that is what you call a weenie mean.

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@daxx You mentioned that a good bit of 12z guidance made a move toward the Euro with the Sunday/Monday system. I'm curious what the latest Euro did in regards to it's own previous runs...is it moving towards the rest (better solution) or did it trend worse from 0z? 

Mike it is close to it's 0z run but it did tick a little south and east some.  Which makes it a little colder for our area.

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Water temp at ACY is 40 right now so I would think as long as the slp stays well to the south no one is torching at the surface so like you mentioned before, if you get rates it can snow even if 850's are above 32. 

I posted that for the Sunday/Monday storm.  No doubt we might be able to cool.  I'm going against my religion and saying this but sv snowfall maps show more snowfall than what I would expect for the late weekend storm.

This is one of those events the guys out in Pitt do better with the cold push.  Those of us in the southeast have no cad from high pressure. 

Edit this is for third event.

38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

FWIW..."the guy from Millersville that will go unnamed" is saying that the big show on Sunday/Monday will see the rain/snow line set up between Harrisburg and Philly. Sounds like most of you N&W of me are sitting pretty. 

This is looking good right now.

Euro third storm same theme.  Central and north big snow. South and east start as snow then mix or change to rain for awhile.   Three days out things can change.

I think if we can get some good precip rates with the second wave the mids will cool. Right now it looks on the light side.

Euro second event. Throws light precip back to central areas. Southeastern counties get a little more qpf with this.  Mid levels a little warm to start then cool some. We might get an inch or two if everything goes right.

Euro first event southern tier 2 to 4. Further north 1 to 3. Lsv seems best spot for this.

Where the hell is Blizz!  The gefs is a snow lovers dream.   Thought for sure he would post those pretty maps. Lol

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

@daxx, have the time today to do Euro PBO for 3 systems in the next 72 hours?

 

 

I will fill you in as it comes out.

8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Is that good or bad?  I forget what the euro look was?

The Euro has been warmer with the late weekend storm.  Still a big snow for most except us to southeast.  We still get snow just north and west do much better.

The 12z models for the Sunday/Monday storm are definitely trending to the euro look.  

37 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

you ready to put your trust in it?

IMO, the better tomorrow night is, the better chance sunday has a chance to tick south, as #1 can pull the boundary a little further south.  Thats what the weenie in me is hoping for anyway.

 

Nut... just to clarify I agree with you.  I'm just stating what the gfs shows.  We all know never put all your marbles into any model three days out.

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

you ready to put your trust in it?

IMO, the better tomorrow night is, the better chance sunday has a chance to tick south, as #1 can pull the boundary a little further south.  Thats what the weenie in me is hoping for anyway.

 

Sunday actually ticked warmer on the 12z than 6z on gfs for us in the southeast. Central and north look great. Cmc a tad warmer too.