daxx

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

We just took it on the backside but it wasn't snow...

Yea I'm in  Adirondacks until Sunday. I might stay an extra day! Lol 

Just now, wolfie09 said:

This is going to be good..

That's putting it mildly.  You guy get nailed!

We do get some on backside but not buying it.

Northern pa and upstate ny pummeled.   Euro is definitely not the ukie for lsv.

Thursday night and early Friday still on for snow on the Euro.  Precip a little lighter than previous runs.

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

No..."we" weren't talking about it. I was. And i admit it. I got sucked into Horst's call which was "4-7 days of wintry weather in January". I was the one that pooped on the parade...

Hey I felt the same, it did not look good at the time.  Even now is not perfect.   I don't think you were totally wrong.  We are having more bouts of winter but I think your February call for a much better pattern is still spot on.

Nut if I were you I would be heading to your cabin.  They are going to get nailed up there!

One way to look at this, two weeks ago we where talking about waiting until February.  We just had snow and it's been cold.  We are getting more snow this week. This weekend looks crappy but we might end up with more wintry precip in amongst flooding lol. Early next week bitter cold, then another up in the air event for now.  After that I think we are in a much better spot.

The fv3 looks decent for Thursday night and friday.

Not even worth talking about. Ugly!

Gfs not looking good at start of weekend storm.

Just now, pasnownut said:

absolutely.  EVERYTHING we are seeing so far (even the warm biased CTP disco) suggests we are not far away from staying frozen.  Just not sure were the very wet signal is coming from? Thru 72 for storm 1, I am now all snow on the GFS.  Snow line ticked 50 miles south.  Good trends for me so far.

Yea 540 stayed south of us along with 850.  Surface little iffy but it is the gfs, don't trust it 2m temps.

Just now, bubbler86 said:

I am starting to cave to the fact that a very wet Saturday night is going to be in store.  We are going to be flooded with warm air as the LP approaches and there really is nothing to make it do anything other than what is being depicted which is run right along the boundary which looks to be too close to us.  We can surely get some freezing rain but snow wise it is not looking good.  

Yes we will probably rain.  We can hope for more front and back end of storm.

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Where are you accessing the ICON?  I'm on TT.  Sounds like you are elsewhere if you are out to the storm#2 timeframe.

Pay site. Stormvista is very fast

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Where are you accessing the ICON?  I'm on TT.  Sounds like you are elsewhere if you are out to the storm#2 timeframe.

Stormvista 

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FWIW, the German's bring the 534 down into CTP for Thurs/Friday and are all snow for the LSV.  Obviously 540 also ticked south. 

When you dont have much to work with ....every little bit helps.  hehe

12z icon is just not giving up still showing snow and ice for the weekend storm.

Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm.  Hopefully things turn around at 12z.   Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall.  As you move north and west it gets better.  Upstate NY does great.

You can really see the follow up showing on gefs.  

Gefs mean is definitely colder than the op. Have to wait for individuals. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

I've never put much faith in backside wins after changeover, but this one is juiced, so hey who knows...it has/can happen.

My focus is still on #1 evolution as it sets up #2

Agree back side of storms are usually a flop. I

The models might be on to something with backside. Euro has it, gfs has it and now fv3.

Just now, pasnownut said:

FWIW  for Thurs/Fri

NAM appears to be an all snow event for everyone.  

ICON also stays all snow 

GFS taints but still gets even LSV into 2'' territory, and taint is after much of the QPF has fallen.

Fv3......

Fv3 look decent for Thursday. 

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

And here is the 18Z GFS for the totals of storm#1 and #2 (...note...does not look like a ton of rain to me...)

 

Trust me there is a good amount of rain on this run.   The backside is giving you those numbers. Take the backside out and it's not close to that.

18z gfs is some snow to ice then to a lot of rain for lsv.  It has trailing energy which gives us snow on backside. We all know how that goes. Overall a more amped run than 12z.

18z gfs still look good for 2 to 4 Thursday.