It would be shocking if we jumped to something like that. It doesn't look to remain locked in with a pattern like that but it does show early spring potential.
We get more lake effect through the year, while you guys can get more bigger lake effect hits its generally smaller through the year and some years can be next to nothing. We get quantity, you get quality.
Boy toward the end of the 12z GFS run would be one for the ages with respect to warmth and potential severe weather. That is also in the period where the GEFS is hinting at a significant trough out west ridge in the east.
I get you are trying to have a rosy disposition here, but that look going into March would be a back breaker for potential late season snowfall. No nothing is impossible but that would be a very bad look and kill a lot of cold in our cold source region.
I would have to imagine if this doesn't change dramatically in the next week we will be in for an early spring in michigan. Most of our early spring is moderated by ice covered lakes.
I worked that 4-6" of partly sunny. I remember watching overnight as the models kept inching north the snow band, and DTX was slow to react until their morning update at 9:30 when they realized that it would for sure snow.
Oh I agree, right now we are completely limited, there is potential, whether it is realized is still unknown. I would however like to move out of phase 7 to improve our chances.
If we stall out in phase 7 of the MJO, it will remain warm and snowless. Sure there is always a chance of something sneaking in but right now its not looking too optimistic.