rochesterdave

Or this, lol. 

I’d love this

NWS dropped a really anemic advisory on Monroe. 4-7”. Booo. Looks like they buy the EURO. 

11 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Honestly I'm less concerned about South to North than I am that Euro is starting to consistently show a nothingburger for BUF-ROC, like it's latching onto the idea that the dying primary is going peter out faster than the others think.

I hear ya. Except the EURO sucks this year. 
 

The NAM is a killer model. I really hope they don’t retire it. Let it run in legacy form. 

1 minute ago, 96blizz said:

Okay, maybe shhhhh @TugHillMatt

 

latest HRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Wow

Solid run for many of us

EURO is now showing more snow in NYC than WNY. Boooo

37” in 54 hours at Marquette

3 minutes ago, brentrich said:

So roch is getting 8-12 inches of snow and no winter storm watch yet? what the hell is going on? 

I think it was already explained but I’ll do it one more time: nearly half of the models have a suppressed system that nearly misses Rochester with qpf (see RGEM, EURO and ICON). The NAM brings a warm tongue and possible dry slot. 
They also still have a number of headlines up in Monroe for other stuff and didn’t have confidence level for a watch. 
Ultimately, I think we get there, but I totally see their rationale. 

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

So why no watch out in roc. Odd

Both the EURO and RGEM have advisory amounts. Nothing odd about it. Smart. IMO

We don’t mess around. Some serious weenies up in here. 

Afternoon disco (BUF) is pretty damn positive. They like the backside 

Kuchie for kicks. I’d take this look! 

Good signs. Good NAM run. No watch for WNY. Probably high end advisory but a watch would of felt good. 

Still to Jamestown. Lol. 

Every bit counts

NAM looks a bit colder so far. Upper levels too

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

What is up with the magnet effect of Low Pressures to Western NY? It's not like Lake Erie is some warm source to draw the low nearby. The last 3 Winters where does a Low go? WNY.

They’ve always gone there. I think it’s topography 

Big run for the NAM coming up. Will it shift south? Will it hold? 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

HRRR

 

 

 

Of course that’s after a 6” thump. Honestly, this is kind of your best bet in Buffalo. If the low stays south you miss all the moisture and get very limited enhancement either way. 

Not the best trends for WNY. Still time to go the other way but not looking great. 4-8? 

So NAM is the outlier. I still kind of believe it. 

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Because we are. They're freaking annoying. That's why I said I am ready for some coastal storms...like the ones that used to exist in the 90s.

Then you’d be freaking out because Syracuse was always on the far western envelope. Those weren’t gimmies. But Syracuse often cashed in. Better than mixing I guess. 

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The higher res guidance brings primary pretty far north. Like I said yesterday the primary might make it up to Buffalo.

 

The big problem with this is we rely almost entirely on the thump. No extra lake love with a track like that.