rochesterdave

R/S line has once again stopped moving SE and actually backed up a bit. Right at the border. Ain’t gonna be any big snow totals in NY. So close and yet so far. Models had this locked down days ago. They are getting scary good. 

8 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, 32F and ice pellets here now 

Minutes…

14 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

 

I live up on Hamilton Mountain now by the airport. (10km away) should probably change my name 

Give it 30 minutes. 

4 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I think so as well but can never be certain, so I’m following it on some discords 

also 33F and rain here so I’m not missing much. Looking upstream at London and I think we might get a prolonged period of freezing rain instead of snow. 

If you’re in Mississaugua, you’ll be snowing within the hour

39F with a stiff north breeze. Sad. Lol

The R/S line is nearly stationary for the last 90 minutes. Actually ticked North. I’m VERY dubious of 3-6 anywhere stateside. 

1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

The Syracuse maps are always useless outside of Syracuse. So lazy. The 1-3” line 20 miles north of Lake Ontario tickles me. 

R/S line cruising through Toronto. 

49 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Definitely had a wind shift to N here and temps dropped from 50 to 42 in 30 minutes (maybe just the cold marine air). Good sign, I hope.

On a side note we've only had 0.15" of rain so far.

Got a link? Love this

Pretty easy to see storm trajectory from this. Jamestown. As usual.  

Afternoon guidance with a decent shift NW. 12z euro held. But I’m thinking NWS might regret WSW for Niagara and Orleans. Who knows. Temps crashing there

3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Good call BUF. Looks like Orleans is included. Soooo close. Lol

3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Right in the edge of 4-6”

Still think you are best positioned to get surprised. GFS perturbed members are laughably all over the place. Even at this final hour…

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Next synoptic system to watch is probably D7/8 which is the same system the euro gave us some wintry precipitation..

As noted before, the HP over north Ontario could make a big difference this go around. It’s funny, with the models being as good as they are, the real exciting part to watch is 120 hours out. A different game than just a few years ago. 

Just as NWS gets more excited, I’m getting less. The 6z runs (other than GFS) we’re very unimpressive. Even Toronto looks as it may suffer from lack of precip. 
Long range looks fantastic! ‘Winters over’ crowd will have to take a powder. 

Hope Missaugua  keeps us informed! Looks like a Toronto special. Good luck buddy!

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I want to be the ice king. Still mad about season 8

Right?!? Worst ending ever. So many strings left untied. Jon Snow literally hid behind a rock for an hour, after having died for What?!?!?!

So frustrating. 

Lol. All hail the king! I knew him before he was famous. We’ve got a lake effect king from Cazenovia and a Buffalo snowking but no king from rochester?!? I sense an opening here. 
Seriously though, you guys have some great video. 

Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

@lakeeffectkid383

 

Who is this “snowking” asshole? Pretty self indulgent name if I do say so

NAM 3k coming in impressively colder. Might not be a done deal? 

Normally a decent track. If only there was some cold in Ontario….

3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Fwiw 18z euro came SE a good bit. Puts BUF right on the line for respectable accumulations. Gonna be really close. 

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This looks fun next week lol

 

Better scenario with HP over Ontario 

This is almost all sleet. But that heavy snow just over the lake is beautiful. Lol

18z GFS ON TOP12z on bottom 

Basically I need 10 more miles to be into a snowstorm (on paper anyway). Keeping my attention for another 6 hours…