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Posts posted by rochesterdave
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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:
This is kind of my thought. I'm riding Friday at Sugarbush and Saturday at Killington. Worst case scenario is we get rain most of Saturday (I'd bail on snowboarding) but a rapid changeover late day and then some "storm chasing" and fun obs Sat night into Sunday morning to somewhat make up for it. And the best case scenario would be a wild powder day on Saturday and an amazing trip overall.
Sugarbush is awesome. I was just there. Not much around there but super fun hill.
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1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:
Hopefully the Gfs/Gefs is right. Euro and cmc and their ensembles are much more muted.
Agreed.
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10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:
This looks like an advisory event to me for the most part at this stage. Like a general 3-6 with maybe a stripe of 6-9 somewhere along the front where the best forcing is (CNY?). The negative factors against a bigger event appear to include fast-moving wave, positive-neutral trough, less than ideal snow rates for most of the event, time of day (mostly a Saturday event), and a warm antecedent ground and air mass (m/u 40s friday).
Things can change but IMO this is a warning event for everyone but Buffalo. And that’s close
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6z eps was also SE. We could definitely use the old NW shift. Should come….
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Just now, 96blizz said:
I’m having a hard time too man. But for me it’s all about Ukraine.
I wish I could do more. It physically hurts.
Maybe a blizzard for you and some warmer days for me can help us to be a bit distracted even if it’s just for a little bit.
Thanks bud. Have a nice trip. We used to love a steak-house called Thoroughbreds. Better than Greg Normans place IMO.
Play a couple scratch rounds.- 2
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Pouring over the info. 6z GEFS definitely took a turn for the worse. Just disorganized. It’s still a storm but a lot of them are a typical Spring thing- couple/ few inches in the valleys, 6” in the elevations. A couple good ones. 12z should tell us a lot.
Im nervous.
I haven’t been following as close as normal. Struggling with some late winter blues.- 1
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6z GFS was much less impressed. Later phase. Stringy mess. It finally gets its act together but too far ne. A possibility. The ICON was a massive bomb.
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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:
There you go. That's what I was talking about earlier. As you can tell, I am more positive about this event than most of the other ones this season. It's a different track than what we've seen.
My entire school community was on a high from the record warm day today. I ruined it when I kept sharing that snow was possible several times this week. Muwahahahaha.....everyone here knows me as the "crazy guy who loves snow."
Yeah. It’d be great to get a more classic LP coming from the south. If nothing else, it’ll take a lot more work for it to arrive in Jamestown. Didn’t we have one do that? Lol
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This feels like it’s 10 days off. It’s not. Precip could start in as little as 100 hours. I think this is a pretty high confidence event. Precip types and exact track are probably up in the air for another 48 hours. But this should be an easier forecast than we’ve had. More like the early Feb storm than the stupid sliders we’ve had.
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51 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:
I actually am very fortunate to have the luxury of doing this. A group of friends from Boston are renting a house up there and I'm just a late add on that can either come or go (Doesn't change anything either way). I'll be making a game time decision Wed/Thurs.
I have a planned trip to Snow Ridge. How great would it be to in the mountains for a big one? I too would cry if I went east and it went west. Not sure I can back out…
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39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:
Could be our most widespread snowstorm of the season.
Slow down Matt. Don’t get your hopes too high just yet. Still lots of spread and a decent potential that this does the same thing a lot of them have done. Syracuse and points east are on a razors edge.
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Looking really good at this juncture
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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Obviously this is before the GFS 6z..
On Friday morning there will be a few separate pieces spread out over portions of the conus that will come together to make for a potentially potent weekend storm system. A potent upper level trough and low over the southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking mostly due east, a potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies tracking southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico with high moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the Tennessee Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an area of low pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the moisture from the GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the southern trough the area of low pressure will track north-northeast along the western side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase over the Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to rapidly strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing out. Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs. snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast.
This is good news. Say what you want, these guys are good.
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I went to bed more or less writing this storm off. Who knows? I will say the GFS cold bias has been pretty bad lately.
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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
RGEM is much further east compared to that 18z ICON run. Would be a good hit!