tombo82685

Euro monthlies. Looks like a textbook nina with december looking the best then going towards standard nina look with dominate -pna supported by aleutian ridge. Wild card would be what occurs in stratosphere. December does look nice with a poleward epo and some possible high lat blocking

Sign me up for these two analogs in regards to pac pattern. The sst in goa and by Seattle currently still argue a hostile pacific pattern but I’ll drink to this.

I’ll have to take a look tonight at the new ones. Can we post euro maps on here? Just want to double check before I do so.

Are you talking about the monthlies? I looked last evening and didn’t see the new ones. Did they just come out?

Finally some color down here in sepa

Fwiw, euro weeklies last night held into a nice normal to below normal pattern with some high latitude blocking but mainly a favorable pacific

Is most of the snow LE? Or do you get a fair share of synoptic too?

Believe it’s like a mile from me. Love some fresh steak on the grill hoping NNY microbrew selection is as strong as sepa

Thank you! Hopefully I bring some good luck up with me to everyone

This has been my lifestyle for the last 13 years

My guess would be, they just don't count that data in the 30 year period. So instead of dividing by 30, they just do it by how may years they have data for

O cool. I was looking at houses down in that area as well. Was very close to buying one in Fulton, but couldn't justify the taxes around the syracuse area, just nuts. In fact I was all over the place when looking. I had one just northeast of springville, that got crushed with lake effect, but the inspection wen terribly wrong and had to get out.

The house I got is about 3.5 miles east northeast of lowville up about 837'. I've been viewing the northernchateau cameras this past lake effect blast. Granted it was elev driven, but there is one west of lowville up about 1800' that got a good 2-4" Then ridge view lodge at 1060' had maybe a few tenths. Then the maple ridge camera had pretty much nothing as it was mainly rain. That was in about a 5 mile drive. Crazy how much elev plays a role in things

Yea I've been catching up on the lake effect page from Buffalo and southern jefferson does very good. O well, we will see how lowville treats me. If I get sick of the constant shadow then can always move into the tughill. How much does lysander get?

Yea I know, thats going to get under my skin the shadowing effect via downsloping lol. But going from 32" avg to 130" will be a hefty upgrade regardless. In looking for houses, there really wasn't much available in the prime spots of the tughill, rather sparse area. I originally had a house lined up just outside of watertown, se portion of the city outskirts but it fell through. I feel watertown is a bit limited with lower elev and being in a not so dominant wind direction in winter time.

Hey guys, just bought a house in lowville. Looking to settle sometime near thanksgiving and start of dec. coming from sepa, so looking forward to some good lake effect

Thank you for the responses, gives me a better idea of where to go if I get the job. As I figured elev is key, just a beautiful area up there in general.

Thanks for the reply. Kind of what I figured, elev dependent. Is that area decent for upslope or do you have to be further west out towards Waterbury or even a tad further west?

Hey, I have a question. I have a potential job offering in Montpelier area. How is that area for snowfall? I saw they avg near 100”, but I know they are a bit lower in elevation so not sure where that value is taken from. Any info would be great.

I wonder if BAMWX is going to tweet the 12z eps change today? I know they do it everytime it goes warm. But here is day 13 change from last night

I think it should be noted 2 things. 1, ssw generally gives the blocking and cold to 2 of the 3 continents, so someone is left out. Also, a ssw doesn't guarantee blocking and cold anywhere. It has to co couple with the troposphere for the effects to materialize. Think back to jan 2019, big ssw early in the month but it did nothing because it never worked down to the troposphere. That was the year the weeklies kept showing this epic cold pattern week 3 onward, while it would of been correct if the ssw worked down to the troposphere, it never did that and well we know what happened.

I think if we get anything prior to dec 5th it would be a miracle. The better pattern to me (if it holds on ens) is after dec 5th. Prior to dec 5th, yes there is a nice block but what are we blocking in? It's all pacific puke stuck underneath with the real cold core being under upper level lows. Really need to get the ridge more poleward out west instead of a chinook blasting through most of Canada. The poleward ridge will help transport colder air into eastern Canada as the eps show later in the period, which we need to see hold. Also, blue on an h5 map doesn't necessarily mean cold either, also can represent storminess.

Well, we also have to remember the past 4 weeks they have looked awful, so saying the best they have looked in weeks is kind of a catch 22. So instead of a 0% chance we maybe have a 10-20% of getting something. Still a lot of pac puke to start the 10-15 day thats getting blocked in. Later on in the period though Canada starts to cool off. Would like to see the ridge out west go poleward more, that would really help in getting eastern Canada colder.

Yea the trop and strat coupled after mid dec when the tpv went to AK. Though, looks like they start to uncouple Atleast gfs based after the 10th

going to be tough to do when your dew pts are in the mid 30s.