tombo82685

who do you think will go first and have the best melt? From what I have experienced the brief period i've been on here, I'd say: TughillMatt is by far the clear favorite and what I'm placing my money on at Vegas. He loses it when syracuse is 5 above the forecasted temp. Imagine if he gets less than 50" of snow this winter. We may see a melt of prolific proportions that rival the clark griswald christmas eve rant. I could see him throwing chairs across the room and kicking large sticks outside in his yard.

The sst in fall were a close match to that year as well.

Yea, but it's also an issue away from UHI areas too, it's everywhere.

it def has, the warmth has outnumbered the cold like 5 to 1. For every one cold month we get, it's like 4 consecutive warm months. If you note though, alot of the warmth is from nighttime lows. My thought to that is, just warmer oceans, more moisture and heat content in the atmosphere leading to warmer night time lows

Well nina in general favors convection in the maritimes which supports Aleutain ridge/-pna. In general though, with the oceans warming, there is just so much warm water stacked up in the western IO into the maritimes that convection just goes nuts in these area. We are getting very little push into whem zones. this winter makes sense due to nina and all the cold water. Cold water= bad for convection, think hurricanes and tropical storms

This is what you need to watch for moving forward, these h5 pieces need to move east and that will only happen once we get a progression of the mjo, if it does so. I believe it will, but may take until sometime in early January. The Chi vp 200 off the cfs is still bullish on a push into the whem as noted below. Black highlighted area is your zone of convection. Green is your zone of subsidence. Can see the general progression here that changes would be in early january, "hopefully"

Can also see on the roundy OLR linear regression maps how convection has stalled in phase 6, which I highlighted in black. The subsidence zone in green and the base state in blue. With the mjo being stuck on phase 6 borderline 7 it's reinforcing the same pattern over and over again. Below is a illustration of what is happening. You have the convection in the maritimes that is stuck. The persistent convection continues to further enhance the big low north of japan. The wavebreaks from pieces of energy rotating around the large upper level low then in turn enhance the aleutian ridge. The amplitude of the aleutian ridge and placement further enhance the -pna which then further enhances the se ridge. The -nao is the one caveat that is trying to suppress the se ridge. If we didn't have that we would be laying out on lake oneida drinking martinis.

Anways, moving forward, definitely a can kick in the ensembles with getting a more normal temp wise airmass. I know we don't need normal temps to snow around here. The h5 look still supports se ridge, and as long as it doesn't go nuts, is not a bad pattern for here. But, ensembles that far out are over smoothing the means, so we won't know how robust the se ridge is until we get closer in. One of the issue for this pattern stalling is the mjo, well stalling. Models were to ambitious with plowing this through the base state and emerging into the Whem. Now we can see they are adjusting towards the base state which is just reinforcing the same aleutian ridge. Below is a loop off my weather forum someone posted. It shows the last 6 or 8 days of the gfs VP maps for tropical convection. Note how further out it had potential convection into the whem, which supports a phase 7 getting into phase 8 mjo. Look at how that has corrected towards the base state in the maritime continent which is phase 6. The cyclone that developed out there didn't help the cause

I think it's all relative though to the pattern. You plot this h5 pattern and look up in history what it looked like and you will get the same result. Fact being, a -pna that deep, (I think I saw it's close to a record for amplitude) will make it hostile here regardless of a -nao. You just can't have a -pna that deep and expect wall to wall winter in the east. I'm not sure this is the new norm, but more inclined that global warming is just creating extreme cases of weather. Heck people living in Seattle are going to have a stretch of winter coming up that they haven't seen in years. Just seems like due to global warming, when we get big cold dumps, it goes wild and same with warmth, there seems to be no inbetween.

Also have to take into consideration I'm from SEPA and just moved up here lol. So having 16" of snow right now and snow pack is not a usual thing for me. I've just learned from living there to just appreciate snow anytime it falls, cause you never know if you will see it again for that winter.

Lol well I guess well was a poor choice, I guess I meant you had lake effect events where you could atleast shovel lol. Everyone east of the Rockies is horrible, but what do you expect with a trough kissing the equator out west.

I didn't mean it like that, and I'm sorry if it came off that way. All I meant is, if you post a lesser tier model, you should also be aware of the accuracy of it and it's downfalls too. Just seems like they are posted more due to straw grasping because the big 4 aren't showing what they want to be shown. As noted above, Icon for this past weekend had you not even getting precip while the big 4 showed a storm.

Lol well I needed to catch up to you guys. You all have been hit well with lake effect. I had like 10 broom pushers that never mounted more than an inch

Thats perfectly fine lol, this is a weather forum, thats what you do. I'm just speaking for myself, I don't look at those models at this time frame

Which is perfectly fine, people are allowed to discuss whatever they want. Me personally, I don't look at the icon, it's just not a useful model to me outside 2 days. Same with the nam, outside a day it shifts to much because its a mesoscale model and any sort of convection just throws the model into euphoria. I just think people get to invested and knee jerk react to quickly over one set of bad model runs and don't look at the overall pattern and take into consideration there clime. No point in getting all fired up over something you can't control. Heck I had people telling me on Saturday that was the last snow I was going to see snow for a while. Now we are frolicking in snow building parson's brown snowman while giggling over the icon and 6z gfs snow event for this weekend.

Which goes back to my point that inside 2 days, most models should have a good point as to what is going to happen. Obviously some models will be better at picking up mesoscale factors. This is the ICON for the same lead time right now for this past weekends event. This is 4 days out exactly where we are right now with this saturday Icon from 12z last tuesday valid for 18z this past saturday, it showed syracuse with partly cloudy skies, with you sitting on your deck soaking up some rays flipping weenies on your grill Now the ggem for same period and same 12z run tuesday. One does not look like the other

it does? The 6z gfs has rain for that area while the icon was bringing the north pole to lysander. Now the day after, yea it's snowy. But the post above was made for the Christmas eve and Christmas day which no model currently supports that take.

Lol, my point is, outside of 2 days, (feel like even bad models should have a good grip of the pattern inside 2 days) the model is not good. Go read any afd or SPC forecast discussion you never hear them say "well I'm going to take the icon solution over the gfs and euro" Heck it's not even mentioned. I don't even think there are trackable statistics on how it performs. I just think people use the Icon to look at when the big 4 aren't showing what they want to see, so then they reduce down to tier 2 modelling. It's like in life in the dating world. Coming out of college looking for women, you don't settle for anything less than an 8. Once to 40 you say to yourself, eee I'll take 2 5's instead.

When you look at garbage models you usually get garbage results

27/5 for todays splits with a solid 4” otg after sublimation.

5 this morning

Down to 7. Just got back from a long walk, just beautiful out with the mooning reflecting off the snow pack. Almost like day time out. Hoar frost everywhere in the trees and shrubs

yea, 14.1 here. Wild the spread in temps over lewis and jefferson co with radational cooling aspects

5.7 may be the total, not sure we get anything additional overnight

Can see it here