Don't mean to bombard, but you are correct. There is actually a paper out that shows evidence that when you get a rather robust phase 3 mjo that propagates around, like we had last year that it does lead to a SSW if the conditions are favorable. With how weak the PV got in late nov I wonder if we had a more robust mjo signal through phase 3 would it of initiated anything. Though, we really didn't get a strong wave 2 hit on the pv after the wave 1 displacement which is needed usually.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144
