tombo82685

I will never post on this site again if that rmm verifies, this should come out into 3-4-5-6. Why would convection just rot when it has all the warm water around Australia

It's not as simple as saying, it comes west it snows. First off look back at nyc snowstorms, how many times did they not have any good HP to the north or cold air in place before a system? Heck NYC dew pts aren't even below freezing on saturday, so you can't even evapo cool down. Meaning you're solely relying on dynamics to bring cold air in. West doesn't mean you snow either. Track further west also means stronger easterly flow out ahead of system and stronger sw flow in the mid levels. Look aback at the 18z run of eps, you had 23 members show over .5 of qpf, yet only 7 member show anything over 2". Thats gotta tell you something right there odds are heavily not in your favor not even with a further west track.

This still looks like a long shot for the coast. Hudson Valley on north still in the game IMO

I think its a combo of mjo that produced a record +AAM event that causes the pac jet to go on roids. It doesn't help that you have th intense goa low that also tightens the pac jet. That doesn't allow the pna ridge out west to build. With that being flatter it prevents the northern stream s/w from digging further south. Also think bad strat alignment has cut off cold air supply. That will change after the 5th as the strat alignment is more favorable for -epo development.

I agree 100% @Allsnow temps are a huge issue. If this is solely southern stream driven, no help from northern stream odds are it's a rainstorm for coastal plain. The way that changes is if the low bombs out and dynamically cools. The HP that scoots offshore just prior to the storm flips the winds to the south and that rots the BL for the coastal plain. If the northern stream gets involved that would be better, but you need the right track of that as well. Has to swing south of this area to pull the cold air in for a snow event along coastal plain.

Ctp has a 6” storm last nov

The map they posted is run to run change from model cycle. Since eps lost the epo it was warmer but the 850 temp anom was below normal

these are the 850 anoms off it

EPS show it too, they have a good cold shot in the jan 6-10 period before we go into a la nina pattern