The thing I think you have to be careful about with these 10-15 day outlooks is the over smoothing due to disagreement. My worry here is, right now they look good because they may be over smoothing the below normal hgts. As we get closer though, you get more agreement of a -pna and start losing the below normal hgt look in the east and replaced with a stronger se ridge in response to the -pna. I just don't see the -pna going away with how the tropical forcing is materializes. More and more agreement from what I see any convection croaks before reaching the whem and to me, that spells continuance of the torugh out west.