donsutherland1

Good question. I posted the actual data, because even when the data is detrended for the warming, one still finds similar outcomes.

In a welcome respite from the dry conditions, last night's rainfall overperformed the guidance in New York City. The one day rainfall for yesterday of 0.40" was the largest since 0.51" fell on August 20 and the two-day rainfall into this morning of 0.57" was the largest since August 20-21 when 0.78" fell.

At least it's not that dry. Phoenix is currently seeing blowing dust courtesy of an outflow boundary that is moving through:

Rainfall amounts have fizzled as the front moved toward New York City. Some amounts through 8:15 pm include: Newark: 0.02" (light rain) Sussex: 0.33" Trenton: 0.07"

Thunder has reached Newark.

Great post. Like you, I believe evolutionary biology has a lot to do with how humans respond, including the preference for the status quo over change, and reactive responses over proactive ones.

Some showers are possible this evening into early tomorrow as a warm front moves across the region. Afterward, tomorrow and Saturday will be warmer days. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the upper 80s. Another round of showers or periods of rain is possible late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front crosses the region. Rainfall from the latter system will be more substantial than that which will occur overnight. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +11.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.207 today.

I suspect that human society will need to experience a crisis of a sufficiently large magnitude to break the inertia. Pandemics, wars, economic crises have all been able to shift the bias from inaction to action. But unless a crisis is sufficiently large to destabilize the business-as-usual paradigm and break faith in some future technological miracle that is used as an excuse for delay, it will be difficult to see significant progress. I don't believe a single weather event will suffice. One would likely see a degree of proactive reform on a local or regional scale, as opposed to the global scale required. Moreover, the response would likely be focused far more on adaptation than mitigation. After some passage of time, things would drift back toward business-as-usual. One sees a recent example in terms of growing financial system deregulation now that the 2008 financial crisis is fading from memory. I suspect the same thing would happen following a regional failed harvest, catastrophic flood, or lethal heat event. What might break the logjam would be recurring failed harvests on a large-scale, significant encroachment of rising seas into numerous major coastal cities, etc. Tragically, the human and social costs would be far higher under such circumstances than with any single event.

From a scientific standpoint, such insight would be valuable. However, IMO, from a policy standpoint, it would be unlikely to matter much. Society has effectively chosen to stay the course. It has chosen to continue to rapaciously burn fossil fuels unleashing gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere and kicking off a range of feedbacks. Neither the promise of cheaper, cleaner alternatives nor the staggering $7 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies has shifted policymakers’ calculus. Instead, emboldened by the applause of a loud minority of bad actors, they have doubled down on their intransigence. In the U.S., there is even a neo-Luddite effort underway to roll back progress on cleaner alternatives, amidst what appears to be a broad and accelerating split with science far beyond climate science. Although these policymakers seem to believe that their unyielding defense of fossil fuels will grant them immunity from the laws of physics, it won't. The laws of physics are not negotiable. Those laws will prevail regardless of human arrogance or ignorance. For scientists, there may be some comfort in knowing that their warnings were grounded in well-tested and well-proven principles. After all, well-understood laws played out exactly as they were understood. From a knowledge standpoint, that's a very good thing. In short, generations of scientists did their job. They did it well and they did it courageously. Full responsibility for the consequences will fall squarely on those who knowingly chose to maintain their unsustainable path in the face of clear warnings and insurmountable evidence. They will be the authors of a sea-level rise that could swallow tens of trillions of dollars of coastal land. They will be the ones who made that wholly avoidable outcome possible. Unlike the rapid sea-level rise around 8,000 BCE when prehistoric humans had no understanding of the forces at work, the ongoing rise during the 21st century and beyond will not be the result of uncontrollable or unknown circumstances. It will be the outcome of deliberate choice with complete knowledge of the consequences of that choice.

Here's how La Niñas transition (using New York City's data) following cooler than normal and warmer than normal Septembers: In general, warmer Septembers are often followed by milder and less snowy winters. Cooler Septembers slightly favor colder winters (especially January, possibly due to more persistent forcing) with greater snowfall potential.

The old record was 40.0C, which was most recently tied at Lytton on September 2 (third such occurrence on record in Canada).

He seems to do this every year. He understands that the holiday season is a high profile season due to travel and other activities. He understands the romantic power of a "white Christmas." Thus, he seizes upon the element of timing to pull emotional triggers and set a digital wildfire with his calls for a cold and often snowy Thanksgiving to Christmas. Almost certainly, the mention of snow will be made as the holidays draw closer to ensure maximum attention and to keep the digital fire burning. He also understands that memories are short-term. All the failed forecasts will be forgotten. They always are. Thus, he recycles his calls over and over again in what ultimately is a successful pursuit of clicks. In this social media game, "winning" is defined by clicks not accuracy. Having said this, La Niña winters can get off to a fast start. But with some exceptions, they fade as the forcing shifts.

Ashcroft, BC, shattered Canada’s all-time September temperature record yesterday, with a high of 40.8 °C (105°F). This milestone caps off an extreme heat spell across B.C., following Lytton’s record-breaking run of four consecutive highs of 40°C (104°F) from August 24-27. The extreme heat in Ashcroft underscores the region's intensifying heat trends. Western Canada is expected to experience more frequent and intense heat waves in a warming climate. Warmer summers, extended wildfire seasons, and record-breaking highs in early autumn signal a continuing shift in the climate baseline. Extreme heat is becoming less of an anomaly and more of a recurring event.

I saw 40.8C. We’ll see if that's the final number, but it’s a new national September mark.

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. It will turn somewhat warmer late in the week with highs on Thursday through Saturday reaching the lower and middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the upper 80s. A system could bring some showers on Friday. Another round of showers is possible late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front crosses the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +6.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.510 today.

Recent research shows that the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern, a Rossby wave–driven circulation mode, triggers anticyclonic systems that expand the subtropical high, reducing latent heat loss and boosting solar heating across regions such as the Kuroshio Extension, thereby fueling extreme sea surface warming in the Northwest Pacific. The ridging driving these marine heatwaves often produces atmospheric heatwaves. Both Japan and South Korea recorded their hottest summer on record this year. Shanghai recorded a record 26 consecutive 95° or above days. Climate models project that under continued greenhouse gas emissions, marine heatwaves in the Northwest Pacific are projected to become more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense. A research summary described a sort of self-reinforcing warming process driving the marine heatwaves as follows: Rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere... are driving more heat into the ocean's surface layer. This creates a greater temperature differential with deeper water and less turbulent mixing with colder water at depth, which causes the surface mixed layer to become thinner. Heat entering the ocean becomes trapped in this shallower layer, which further accelerates surface warming. The references to "more heat" at the ocean's surface layer and "colder water at depth" essentially shoot down any volcanic hypothesis. The opposite would need to be true if the volcanic idea had merit.

Several quick things: 1. Neither explains the amount of energy that would be required for volcanic activity to have been driving the heating of the oceans 2. Neither can explain why the warming is top-down not bottom up 3. When it comes to SSTs, 2025 has been running either 2nd or 3rd warmest. Day-to-day fluctuations are less important than the overall trajectory. Indeed, their SST chart contains a material omission that shows that the steep drop was, in fact, a fluctuation. 4. No credible or compelling evidence is used to support the following statement: "The Sun, the oceans, stochastic events, and the very design of the system far overwhelm anything man can do to the climate and weather..." Bottom line: The scientific evidence related to the warming oceans is consistent with what would be expected from enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. Some cooling of the oceans would be expected from ENSO. Oceanic heat content continues to increase. CO2's properties are independent of whether CO2 is released from volcanic activity or human activities. Those properties are the same regardless of how it is released into the atmosphere.

The bad information is unbelievable.

I saw that Lytton reached 40.0C. A large number of sites in BC exceeded 35C. Today, Lytton could surpass 40C.

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. It will turn somewhat warmer late in the week with highs on Thursday through Saturday reaching the lower and possibly middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A system could bring some showers on Friday. Another round of showers is possible late Saturday into Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was -1.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.304 today.

Since 1869, there were 26 cases prior to 2025 where August saw < 2" of rain. Just over two-thirds (69%) went on to see a drier than normal (historical 1869-2024 baseline) September. Of those dry September cases, 61% then saw above normal rainfall in October, but 39% experienced another month of below normal rainfall (again using the historic baseline). Anticipating that the question might be raised concerning snowfall in the winter that follows, the shaded regions had the highest frequency of < 20", < 15", and < 10" snowfall. The non-shaded regions had the highest frequency of 30" or more snowfall (with or without the August precipitation constraint). Nevertheless, the statistical relationship is weak.

Consistent with the idea that a dry end of August often leads to below normal rainfall during the first week of September and September overall, the latest NBM has further trimmed rainfall amounts from yesterday's runs. Now, it shows some showers on Friday and then Saturday evening into Sunday morning with a frontal passage. Rainfall amounts for both events are light. The latest CFSv2 shows drier than normal conditions through at least its Week 1 and Week 2 forecasts. All said, early on, September appears to be on course for a drier than normal month. Model skill falls off sharply beyond two weeks.

New York City had its coolest August since 2000.

Britain has recorded its hottest summer since records began in 1884, with average temperatures reaching 16.10 °C, the Met Office said today. The figure surpasses the previous 2018 record and runs more than 1.5 °C above the seasonal norm, highlighting the accelerating impact of climate change. Moreover, all of the five hottest summers have occurred since 2000, including three since 2018. The record heat follows searing European summers marked by deadly wildfires in Spain, Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus. Scientists say the blazes were more than 20 percent more intense due to global warming, leaving at least 20 dead, displacing tens of thousands, and burning over one million hectares. Globally, June 1-August 31, 2025 will rank as the third warmest on record on the ERA-5 dataset. It will wind up about 0.1°C warmer than fourth ranked 2019. Globally, every year in the 2020s has ranked among the 8 warmest such periods on record: 2020 (7th), 2021 (8th), 2022 (6th), 2023 (2nd), 2024 (1st), and 2025 (3rd). The most recent June-August not to rank among the 10 warmest such periods was 2015 (11th).

The oefficient of determination for December is very weak (0.013): Here's the scatter diagram: The coefficient of determination is almost zero for seasonal snowfall (almost no relationship) at 0.004: Here's the scatter diagram: For cases when August had a monthly mean temperature below 74°, 41.4% of winters saw 30" or more snow. For all other cases, 37.8% of the following winters saw 30" or more snowfall.