donsutherland1

During September, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly fell below -1.00°C for multiple weeks. Since 1950, only a single El Niño winter (2002-03) followed a September with one such week. Therefore, based on a combination of the current guidance and historical ENSO data, the underlying ENSO assumption for winter 2019-2020 is a neutral (warm) ENSO state. There could be periods where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly is somewhat above +0.5°C, but the winter average should be neutral. For much of the winter the Region 1+2 anomaly should be negative. The September-October ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.82°C. Since 1950, 12/16 (75%) cases when the Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -0.99°C to -0.50°C had a predominantly negative PDO. In fact, the PDO fell to -0.45 in October. The last time the PDO was negative for a month was November 2018 when it was -0.05. A negative PDO winter favors a negative PNA. Since 1950, there were five years that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in November and -1.500 or below during the second half of November. Out of the total of 15 months that followed, the AO averaged < 0 during 12 (80%) and -0.500 or below during 10 (67%). This data suggests at least somewhat above average frequency of AO blocking for winter 2019-2020. However, winters during which the AO rises to +3.000 or above in December typically have less frequent blocking. Therefore, the assumption is that there will be periods of blocking and periods where blocking is absent. The NAO appears to have transitioned to a predominantly positive state. A generally positive NAO has also been modeled on the seasonal guidance. The core assumption is a positive NAO. The large pool of warm SSTAs south of Alaska has been cooling gradually in recent weeks. Warm SSTAs in that region have often been a precursor of a predominantly negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). Based on this trend, the first half of winter 2019-2020 may see more frequent EPO blocking than the second half. Key Assumptions: 1. Neutral-warm ENSO 2. Generally positive NAO 3. Negative to somewhat positive PDO 4. AO variability 5. EPO variability with a tendency toward more positive values later in the winter. A composite temperature anomaly map is below (DJF 1950-51 through DJF 2018-19): The multi-model (C3S)outlook is below: Additional factors to be considered include the observed ongoing warming occurring in the Arctic region. Based on all of the above factors (including some weight being placed on the seasonal climate models), my estimated December-February temperature thinking is: Colder than normal (1.0° to 2.0° below normal): Eastern Canada (eastern Ontario, Quebec, Labrador, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, PEI) Near Normal (0.5° below normal to 0.5° above normal): Desert Southwest, Great Lakes Region, New England Somewhat above normal (0.5° to 1.5° above normal): Middle Atlantic Region, Plains States, West Coast, Canada (except for Eastern Canada and Northwest Canada) Warmer than Normal (1.0° to 3.0° above normal): Southeast Much Warmer than Normal (More than 3.0° above normal): Alaska, Northwest Canada (Yukon) Select seasonal snowfall estimates are below: Albany: 60"-70” Atlanta: 0.5"-2.5" Baltimore: 10”-20” Binghamton: 80”-90” Boston: 30”-40” Buffalo: 100”-110” Burlington: 80”-90” Chicago: 25”-35” Detroit: 30”-40” Nashville: 5”-10” New York City: 20”-30” Newark: 20”-30” Philadelphia: 10”-20” Providence: 25”-35” Richmond: 5”-10” Scranton: 45”-55” Sterling: 10”-20” Washington, DC: 7”-17” What could lead to higher amounts: 1. Prolonged deep blocking (AO of -1.000 or below) 2. The MJO's persistently being in Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 at a high amplitude 3. The ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly falling to somewhat negative values as the winter progresses 4. A mainly negative NAO What could lead to lesser amounts: 1. The development of a persistently positive AO coupled with a strongly negative SOI 2. The MJO's persistently being in Phases 4, 5, and 6 at a high amplitude 3. Dramatic warming in ENSO Region 1+2

Mann was accused of manipulating data in an attack on his professional and personal integrity.

The Supreme Court declined to block Michael Mann’s defamation case from proceeding to trial. IMO, this is good news, as the defendants made harsh allegations for which they had no evidence. Debate is undermined when parties fabricate allegations aimed at diverting discussion from the merits, especially when character is attacked to intimidate others into silence. This latest legal development is good news, both from a legal and debate perspective.

An update concerning the issue of extreme ideas being broadcast on Social Media. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52511-autumn-2019-banter-thread/page/5/?tab=comments#comment-5338034 The cold pattern that was supposed to lock into place after mid-month: The November 16-24 anomalies: Based on the latest guidance, Chicago will likely wind up just below 0.5° above normal for the second half of November and New York City will wind up perhaps a little below 2.0° below normal. In short, the extreme scenario does not appear likely to verify. The conclusion at that time (October 30): In sum, the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in. For forecasting purposes, one should be wary of extreme calls without really strong supporting evidence. The teleconnection forecast at the time argued against such an outcome. The final conclusion will be posted following November (probably in early December as it takes a few days for the anomalies maps to be updated).

Many thanks for tagging me. It was an exciting event for Colorado and it will be interesting to see the storm as it continues to track eastward.

Yet another example of a cruise ship that had no clue about the well-modeled storm that is raging off the Southeast. https://www.wbal.com/article/421416/3/baltimore-cruise-ship-delays-return-due-to-storm Hiring a meteorologist is a tiny cost per cruise and per passenger. It is almost incomprehensible that a major cruise line would sail blindly oblivious to forecast weather conditions.

In terms of global temperatures, the October GISS data is now in. Despite parts of the Northern Rockies experiencing the coldest October on record, October 2019 ranked as the second warmest October on record with a +1.04°C anomaly. Only 2015 with a +1.09°C anomaly was warmer. As a result, 2019 has a year-to-date anomaly of +0.97°C, which is the second warmest at this point in time. 2019 remains on course to be the second warmest year on record on that dataset. That last time a two-month period was cool enough to avoid such an outcome was June-July 2014 with a +0.63°C anomaly. The last time November-December was cool enough was in 2012 with a +0.66°C anomaly.

Globally, October 2019 was the second warmest on record on GISS. Only October 2015 was warmer.

A great link for those looking for a wide range of seasonal forecasts: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

I don’t know. In any case, the NWS listed today’s low temperature as a record.

FWIW, CBS Radio (880 am) is saying tomorrow’s record low in New York City is 22 degrees set in 1873. It is not. The record is 24 degrees from 1986.

To be fair, that is a Federal Reserve conference. The focus is on areas within the Fed's domain. We agree that climate goes beyond monetary policy, finance, and economics.

Historic fire weather conditions in Australia:

Back on October 30, I noted a Social Media forecast suggesting that the kind of severe cold expected later this week would 'lock into place.' At the time, I noted that the idea of such severe cold locking into place was not supported by the forecast teleconnections or latest very long-range guidance. The posted map for the conditions suggested to lock in showed mean temperatures of 8° or more below normal in Chicago and New York City. My conclusion was as follows: ...the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in. Considering pattern persistence, the warming might be somewhat slower than modeled, but definitive language about severe cold locking in does not fairly represent things. After the first 10 days, here's what the model guidance shows for the November 16-30 mean temperatures: Chicago: 36.5° (1.2° below normal) New York City: 46.8° (0.9° above normal) In short, the guidance is now showing nothing approximating the severe cold that was supposed to lock into place. Note: Depending which model is used, the numbers may fluctuate. Beyond the forecast horizon of each guidance, normal readings were assumed for the calculations. Additional updates and a final verification will be provided. The main takeway remains: One should not forecast long periods of extremes without strong support for such an outcome.

On Friday, the San Francisco Federal Reserve hosted a conference on climate change. Excerpts from San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary C. Daly's address are below: Why is the San Francisco Fed hosting a climate conference? ...The answer is simple. It’s essential to achieving our mission... Extreme weather events like hurricanes, floods, and wildfires destroy property and disrupt essential services like health care and education. But they also impact how people buy things. Without power, electronic payment methods – debit cards, credit cards, and mobile services like Apple Pay – don’t work. So you need cash for everything... The Fed’s second core function is the regulation and supervision of the banking system. And climate events are becoming an increasing area of risk for many of the financial firms we supervise. Higher sea levels, heavier rainfalls, dryer conditions, and the associated fallout can cause catastrophic losses to property and casualty insurers – especially if the majority of their clients are geographically concentrated in the affected region. In 2018 alone, it’s estimated that damages from severe weather in the United States cost insurers upwards of $50 billion... Finally, climate change can also influence our third function: conducting monetary policy to achieve our congressionally-mandated goals of full employment and price stability. Early research suggests that increased warming has already started to reduce average output growth in the United States. And future growth may be curtailed even further as temperatures rise. Several of the papers on the program today outline other ways in which the micro- and macro-economic environments may be impacted by climate change. While more work needs to be done to clearly understand these effects, there’s little doubt that we need to recognize, examine, and prepare for these risks in order to fulfill our core responsibilities. https://www.frbsf.org/our-district/files/Speech-Daly-Economics-of-Climate-Change-Conference.pdf

After a record warm October with a mean temperature of 83.5°, which would have ranked as the 10th warmest September on record, and a record warm September-October period with a mean temperature of 84.3°, Miami set a daily record high temperature of 91° to start November. The previous record of 89° was set in 1958.

As the observed warming of the global climate, including the continuing rapid warming in the Arctic region despite gradually declining solar insolation, proceeds, the degree of scientific ignorance being pushed on Social Media to deflect attention from athnropogenic climate change is expanding. One stunning example: https://twitter.com/EcoSenseNow/status/1190278220043579393 The hashtag, #CelebrateIgnorance would have been more appropriate. Let's take a look at the Eocene, which experienced the world's warmest temperatures since the extinction of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago. We show that sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from ∼18 °C to over 23 °C during this event. Such warm values imply the absence of ice and thus exclude the influence of ice-albedo feedbacks on this Arctic warming. At the same time, sea level rose while anoxic and euxinic conditions developed in the ocean's bottom waters and photic zone, respectively. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04668 We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1600891.short Associated with the rapid carbon release during this event are profound environmental changes in the oceans including warming, deoxygenation and acidification. To evaluate the global extent of surface ocean acidification during the PETM, we present a compilation of new and published surface ocean carbonate chemistry and pH reconstructions from various palaeoceanographic settings. We use boron to calcium ratios (B/Ca) and boron isotopes (δ11B) in surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct ocean carbonate chemistry and pH. Our records exhibit a B/Ca reduction of 30–40% and a δ11B decline of 1.0–1.2‰ coeval with the carbon isotope excursion. The tight coupling between boron proxies and carbon isotope records is consistent with the interpretation that oceanic absorption of the carbon released at the onset of the PETM resulted in widespread surface ocean acidification. The remarkable similarity among records from different ocean regions suggests that the degree of ocean carbonate change was globally near uniform. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2017.0072 How does the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gas emissions compare to that period? Research has found that "current carbon emission rates are nine to 10 times higher than those during the PETM." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190220112221.htm Further, climate sensitivity could increase with the warming on account of feedbacks such as those concerning cloud processes. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874/tab-pdf In the end, the growing extremes to which climate change deniers are now going to try to defend an indefensible case and evade their near total absence of scientific support demonstrates that the charlatans involved--in this case in tweeting, retweeting, or otherwise disseminating what amounts to quackery--should be ignored on any matters pertaining to science. Science is evidence-based. It is not an article of blind faith. Most definitely, it is not blind faith spiced by a combination of profound ignorance and a willingness to mislead. The body of scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change is clear and overwhelming. Residual uncertainties exist, but the basic conclusion concerning the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is now near unequivocal.

For those tracking the heat in Florida, today’s 91 degree temperature in Jacksonville is that city’s latest 90 degree temperature on record. The prior record was October 27, 2010 when the temperature reached 90.

Yes. That’s why it is quite clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is playing the larger role today. And that forcing will continue to increase in coming years/decades.

UHI has made a contribution. The sun, though, should have a small net negative contribution in recent years given the slight decrease in solar irradiance. New York City is also affected by the increase in sea surface temperature anomalies, as well. But rising greenhouse gas forcing has also driven the observed warming trend (larger role more recently). Natural variability is occurring within the context of growing greenhouse gas forcing. No disagreement on the role politics has played in skewing perceptions.

Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), October has averaged 0.6 sigma above the 30-year moving average temperature and standard deviation in Miami. The 5 warmest Octobers on a standardized basis (30-year moving average) are: 1. 2019 +2.6 sigma 2. 2009 +2.2 sigma 3. 2002 +2.15 sigma 4. 1995 +2.0 sigma 5. 1969 +1.9 sigma No other Octobers were 1.8 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average. This data shows that since 2000, the extremely warm Octobers have become even more extreme even when the rising temperature trend is considered.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.7 0.1 -0.7 1.2 2.0 2.1 Snowfall (11/21): DCA: 10.0" NYC: 23.5" BOS: 36.0" ORD: 30.0" DTW: 35.0" BUF: 110.0" DEN: 83.0" BTV: 90.0" SEA: 6.5"

The record warm October will follow a record warm September. The September 2019 mean temperature was 85.2°. The prior September record was 84.8°, which was set in 2017. Miami will also easily register the warmest September-October period on record with a mean temperature near 84.3°. The existing record is 83.1°, which was set in 2009. 8 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2000 or later and 5 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2010 or later. Records in Miami go back to 1895. Such warmth is consistent with the expected outcomes from anthropogenic climate change.

In large part, this is likely why Utqiagvik will have the highest September-October mean temperature on record this year by at least 2 degrees.

As October concludes, Chicago recorded an October 30 daily record snowfall of 1.2". Monthly record low temperatures were reported in many parts of the Northern Rockies. Perhaps in response, increasingly sensational forecasts are now being pushed on Social Media. Often, such hype concerns snowstorms. IMO, one needs to point out such extremes when support is lacking, as such calls can skew perceptions about what is likely to occur and, afterward, lead the public's to blame forecasters (most of whom did not call for such extremes) when those extremes don't materialize. Below is an example of the kind of severe cold that is being forecast to lock in (notice the explicit language about the severe cold shown on the map locking in). I have also included the forecast teleconnections toward mid-November. Most of the ensemble members suggest the development of an AO+/NAO+/PNA- to neutral pattern toward mid-November. Let's take a look at two major cities where the tweet suggests cold temperatures of 8° or more below normal will lock in: Chicago and New York City. Such teleconnections would suggest that the cold shown at the end of the extended range would abate. Here's the data for November 16-30 (1981-2010): AO+/NAO+/PNA (-0.5 to +0.5*): Chicago: 40.0°; New York City: 48.6° 1981-2010 Base Normals: Chicago: 37.7°; New York City: 45.9° *-A PNA- would be even warmer. Put simply, historic experience with the forecast state of the teleconnections argues that the severe cold shown in the tweeted map would not lock in for the second half of the month. What does the very long-range guidance show? Here are the week 3 and 4 CFSv2 forecasts: The October 28 0z EPS weeklies also show warm anomalies developing after mid-month across almost the entire CONUS. In sum, the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in. Considering pattern persistence, the warming might be somewhat slower than modeled, but definitive language about severe cold locking in does not fairly represent things. All said, will Chicago and New York see November 16-30 with a mean temperature of 8° or more below normal? That scenario is very unlikely. Could it be cooler than normal? Possibly. Could it be warmer than normal? That's more likely than not given the forecast teleconnections and the long-range guidance. Clearly, all forecasts are subject to error and all forecasters make errors. My point is that one shouldn't assume extreme scenarios without strong support for such outcomes. IMO, support for severe cold to lock in is limited (teleconnections + long-range guidance).