donsutherland1

The historic autumn heat wave of 2019 toppled numerous records yet again in the South. Records included: Asheville, NC: 91° (tied October record set yesterday) Athens, GA: 100° (new October record) Atlanta: 98° (new October record) Augusta, GA: 100° (new October record) Birmingham: 101° Charlotte: 98° Chattanooga, TN: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 100° (tied October record) Crestview, FL: 101° (new October record) Elizabeth City, NC: 96°(new October record) Fayetteville, NC: 99° Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 98° (new October record) Greenville, MS: 99° (new October record) Greenwood, MS: 100° (new October record) Huntsville, AL: 100°(tied October record set yesterday) Jackson, KY: 95° Jackson, MS: 98° Macon, GA: 102° (new October record) Memphis: 98° (new October record) Meridian, MS: 102° (tied October record set yesterday) ***3rd consecutive 100° or above reading; no prior year had reached 100° in October; records go back to 1889*** Mobile: 98° (new October record) Montgomery, AL: 102° (new October record) Muscle Shoals, AL: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Nashville: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) New Orleans: 95° Oak Ridge, TN: 98° (new October record) Paducah, KY: 93° Pensacola: 97° (new October record) Raleigh: 100° (new October record) Richmond: 97° Savannah: 96° Shreveport: 98° Tallahassee: 97° (new October record) Tupelo, MS: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101° (tied October record set yesterday) Wilmington, NC: 98° (new October record) Macon, GA has set record high temperatures on 10 consecutive days: September 24: 98°(old record: 96°) September 25: 99° (old record: 96°) September 26: 102° (old record: 96° September 27: 102° (old record: 94°) September 28: 98° (old record: 96°) september 29: 97° (old record: 95°) September 30: 100° (old record: 95°) October 1: 98° (old record: 94°) October 2: 98° (old record: 94°) October 3: 102° (old record: 93°) ***New October Record***

In the wake of yesterday's historic October heat, much cooler air returned to the region. Under clouds and occasional rain, readings remained in the 50s from New Jersey into New England. Meanwhile, farther south, the historic autumn heat toppled additional daily and monthly records. Today, Raleigh reached 100°, its latest 100° reading on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on September 10, 2007 when the temperature also hit 100°. As a result of today's October record high temperature, Raleigh's highest annual temperature for this year will occur in October for the first time on record. Raleigh's records go back to 1887. With its 101° degree high temperature, Birmingham registered its 8th consecutive daily record high temperature. Previously, the city had two 7-day stretches (September 3-9, 1925 and May 16-22, 1962). Birmingham also recorded its highest annual temperature for 2019 in October, the first time that occurred. Records there go back to 1895. Records included: Athens, GA: 100° (new October record) Atlanta: 98° (new October record) Augusta, GA: 100° (new October record) Birmingham: 101° Charlotte: 98° Chattanooga, TN: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 100° (tied October record) Crestview, FL: 101° (new October record) Elizabeth City, NC: 96°(new October record) Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 98° (new October record) Huntsville, AL: 100°(tied October record set yesterday) Macon, GA: 102° (new October record) Mobile: 98° (new October record) Montgomery, AL: 102° (new October record) Nashville: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) Pensacola: 97° (new October record) Raleigh: 100° (new October record) Richmond: 97° Savannah: 96° Tallahassee: 97° (new October record) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101° (tied October record set yesterday) Wilmington, NC: 98° (new October record)　 Today was also Atlanta's 90th 90° or above temperature this year. That ties the annual record set in 1980 and tied in 2011. Today was also Atlanta's 13th 90° or above temperature after September 15. The previous record was 11, which was set just last year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -20.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.423. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 2, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.758. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 59%. 　

This afternoon, the temperature reached 100° at Raleigh. That broke the October record of 98°, which was set on October 6, 1954. It is also the latest 100° or above temperature on record. The previous latest such temperature occurred on September 10, 2007. 2019 also becomes the first year on record when Raleigh's highest annual temperature was reached in October. Records go back to 1887.

As of 2 pm, Wilmington, NC had a high temperature of 96°. That surpassed the previous October record of 95°, which was set on October 5, 1954 and tied on October 3, 1986.

As of 2 pm, Raleigh had a high temperature of 99°. That surpassed the 98° reached on October 6, 1954 to become the warmest October temperature on record.

As of 2 pm, Atlanta has had a high temperature of 97°. That surpasses yesterday's 96° reading as the highest on record for October.

This is a big and sad tragedy.

At 11 am CDT, the temperature at Birmingham reached 95°. That surpassed the daily record of 93°, which was set in 1911. Birmingham has now recorded daily record high temperatures on 8 consecutive days. That surpasses the old record of 7 consecutive days, which was set in 1925 and tied in 1962. 7-Consecutive Daily Record High Temperatures: September 3-9, 1925 May 16-22, 1962 (1962 recorded 16 record high temperatures in May)

I agree. Such a consumption tax would generate revenue and it would have the desired impact of reducing carbon-intensive consumption. The CBO provided a summary related to a potential $25 per ton carbon tax last year: https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2018/54821

IMO, markets will need to be leveraged, not supplanted, to offer perhaps the highest probability that the challenge of anthropogenic climate change is met. Policy that aims to supplant markets will probably run aground.

It should be noted that the above is political commentary by a Senate candidate. Policy and political discussions related to climate change are not necessarily the same thing as scientific discussions.

Cut Bank fell to 1° yesterday.

Today saw more historic heat across parts of the South. For the first time on record, Birmingham's annual maximum temperature was recorded in October. Tuscaloosa's 101° figure tied the high temperature of 9/13 for the year's hottest reading. Select records (and the list is not all-inclusive): Athens, GA: 98°(tied October record) Atlanta: 96° (new October record) Baltimore: 98° (new October record) ***59th 90° day ties record set in 2010*** Birmingham, AL: 103° (new October record) ***first annual high temperature in October; records go back to 1895; previous latest such temperature 9/9 in 1925*** Charlotte: 99° (new October record) Huntsville, AL: 100° (new October record) Lexington, KY: 96° Louisville: 96° Macon, GA: 98° Mobile, AL: 96° Montgomery, AL: 99° Nashville: 99° (new October record) Norfolk: 97° (new October record) Pensacola: 93° Raleigh: 96° Richmond: 98° Sterling, VA: 96° (new October record) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101°(new October record) ***tied the 9/13/2019 reading for the hottest this year; first October entry in the record book; records go back to 1948*** Washington, DC: 98° (new October record) Distribution of Birmingham's Highest Annual Temperature by Month (1895-2019) May: 3 (2.1%) June: 28 (19.3%) July: 53 (36.6%) August: 43 (29.7%) September: 17 (11.7%) October: 1 (0.7%) Note: The numbers add up to more than the 125-year record, because some years saw the highest annual temperature occur in more than one month.

Much of the region experienced its hottest October day on record. Records included: Allentown: 93° (new October record) Athens, GA: 98°(tied October record) Atlanta: 96° (new October record) Baltimore: 98° (new October record) ***59th 90° day ties record set in 2010*** Birmingham, AL: 103° (new October record) ***first annual high temperature in October; records go back to 1895*** Bridgeport: 87° Charlotte: 99° (new October record) Harrisburg: 93° Huntsville, AL: 100° (new October record) Islip: 89° (new October record) Lexington, KY: 96° Louisville: 96° Macon, GA: 98° Mobile, AL: 96° Montgomery, AL: 99° Nashville: 99° (new October record) New York City-Central Park: 93° New York City-JFK: 95° (new October record) New York City-LGA: 95° (new October record) Newark: 96° (new October record) Norfolk: 97° (new October record) Pensacola: 93° Philadelphia: 95° Poughkeepsie: 88° Raleigh: 96° Richmond: 98° Sterling, VA: 96° (new October record) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101°(new October record) Washington, DC: 98° (new October record) White Plains, NY: 90° (new October record) Wilmington, DE: 98° (new October record) Much cooler air is now pushing into the region. Tomorrow will likely see temperatures struggling to reach 60°. Overall, a 7-10 day period with readings generally near or below normal lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -11.93 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.443. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. Events during September, including the SOI's falling to -35.30 on September 19, the MJO's being in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the September 20-30 period for more than two days, the historic late September snowfall in Great Falls, MT, and the possible ongoing evolution toward a generally positive AO regime, favor a warmer than normal October based on past outcomes. On October 1, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.766 (RMM). The September 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.909. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 58%.

Record highs around NYC included: Bridgeport: 87° Islip: 89° (new October record) New York City-Central Park: 93° New York City-JFK: 95° (new October record) New York City-LGA: 95° (new October record) Newark: 96° (new October record) White Plains: 90° (new October record)

JFK had a 4 pm temperature of 94°.

Yes. This is an extremely impressive outbreak of heat.

In parts of the South, monthly record high temperatures were shattered. Monthly records included: Birmingham: 99° (previous October record: 94°, 10/1/1919, 10/5/1927, and 10/6/1954) Chattanooga, TN: 97° (previous October record: 94°, 10/5/1954) Huntsville, AL: 99° (previous October record: 96°, 10/8/1911) Lexington, KY: 97° (previous October record: 93°, 10/6/1941) Louisville: 96° (previous October record: 93°, 10/7-8/2007) Mobile: 97° (previous October record:95°, 10/2/1904) Montgomery, AL: 101° (previous October record: 100°, 10/6/1954) Nashville: 98° (previous October record: 95°, 10/1/1953, 10/5/1954, and 10/8/2007) Pensacola: 96° (previous October record: 95°, 10/8/1884 and 10/5/1951)

Today was a day of records in many parts of the United States. In the wake of a historic late September snowstorm, record low temperatures were recorded in parts of Montana. Records included: Cut Bank: 1°(old record: 14°, 1950) Great Falls: 9° (old record: 22°, 1959) In parts of the East, monthly record high temperatures were shattered. Monthly records included: Akron: 91° (previous October record: 89°, 10/1/1927 and 10/5/1922) Birmingham: 99° (previous October record: 94°, 10/1/1919, 10/5/1927, and 10/6/1954) Cleveland: 93° (previous October record: 90°, 10/6/1946) Huntsville, AL: 99° (previous October record: 96°, 10/8/1911) Lexington, KY: 97° (previous October record: 93°, 10/6/1941) Louisville: 96° (previous October record: 93°, 10/7-8/2007) Nashville: 98° (previous October record: 95°, 10/1/1953, 10/5/1954, and 10/8/2007) Pensacola: 96° (previous October record: 95°, 10/8/1884 and 10/5/1951) Some of this warmth will push into the Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s into parts of southern New England. Locations, including Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Newark, and possibly even New York City could reach 90°. The last October 90° or above temperature for select locations occurred on the following dates: Baltimore: October 15, 2015, 90° New York City-Central Park: October 6, 1941, 90° New York City-JFK Airport: October 8, 2007, 90° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: October 6, 1946, 90° Newark: October 6, 1959: 91° Philadelphia: October 7, 1941: 93° Washington, DC: October 4, 2018, 90° Afterward, a period of cooler than normal readings will move into the region during the latter part of the first week of October. This pattern could last 7-10 days, though not every day will be cooler than normal. 　 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was +2.32 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was not available. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. Events during September, including the SOI's falling to -35.30 on September 19, the MJO's being in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the September 20-30 period for more than two days, the historic late September snowfall in Great Falls, MT, and the possible ongoing evolution toward a generally positive AO regime, favor a warmer than normal October based on past outcomes. On September 30, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.909 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.041. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%.

Charlotte concluded its fourth warmest September on record with a mean temperature of 78.7°. Only 1921 (79.2°), 1925 (80.5°), and 2018 (78.8°) were warmer. During the September 16-30 period, Charlotte had a mean temperature of 76.8°, which was tied with 1895 and 1921 for the third warmest such period. The record is 77.1°, which was set during September 16-30, 1925 and tied during September 16-30, 2018. During September 2019, Charlotte reached 90° or above on 21 days, which tied the record set in 1925. During the September 16-30 period, there were 9 days with temperatures of 90° or above. That tied the record, which was set in 1895 and tied in 1931 and 2010. Charlotte has experienced a recent increase in the frequency of 90° or warmer days during September in recent years. The last 10 years (2010-19) averaged 8.8 days with high temperatures of 90° or above. That is the highest figure on record. The highest 10-year average prior to 2000 was 8.7 days during the 1925-34 period. The 30-year moving average (1990-2019) is 5.1 days. That is below the record figure of 6.8 days, which was set during the 1925-54 period. During the September 16-30 period, Charlotte has averaged 2.7 90° or warmer days over the latest 10-year period. That is somewhat below the record of 3.0 days, which was set during the 1925-34 period. The 30-year moving average is currently 1.6 days. The existing record is 2.1 days, which was set during the 1925-54 period and tied during the 1926-55 period. Overall, the average September temperature has been increasing. However, the current 10- and 30-year periods have not attained the warmth seen earlier in Charlotte’s climate record for month as a whole. The last 10 years were tied for the warmest 10-year period during September 16-30. September Mean Temperature: 2010-19: 74.3°; Record: 74.8°, 1925-34 1990-2019: 72.7°; Record: 73.5°, 1918-47 September 16-30 Mean Temperature: 2010-19: 72.6° (tied with 1925-34) 1990-2019: 70.5; Record: 71.1°, 1919-48 Record Temperatures for September 2019: Record High Minimum Temperatures: 9/5/ 74° (tied record set in 1880 and tied in 1921 and 1941) 9/13 73° (tied record set in 2018) 9/14 72° (tied record set in 1915 and tied in 1925, 1938, and 2018) Record High Maximum Temperatures: 9/12 98° (old record: 95°, 1925) 9/26 95° (old record: 94°, 1961) 9/27 94° (old record: 93°, 1900) 9/29 96° (old record: 93°, 1941) 9/30 91° (tied record set in 1926) Finally, through October 1, Charlotte has had 82 days on which the temperature reached 90° or higher. Only 1925 (85 days), 1954 (88 days), and 2010 (87 days) had more.

I will get that info. and post it a little later today.

At 1 pm, the temperature was 91° in Cleveland. That set a new October high temperature record. The previous monthly record was 90°, which was set on October 6, 1946.

Additional temperature data from Georgia: September 2019 Mean Temperatures: Athens: 79.3° (6th) Atlanta: 82.4° (2nd) Augusta: 80.2° (5th) Columbus: 83.3° (3rd) Macon: 81.1° (4th) Savannah: 81.3° (5th) September 16-30, 2019 Mean Temperatures: Athens: 77.3° (7th) Atlanta: 80.6° (2nd) Augusta: 78.2° (12th) Columbus: 82.4° (3rd) Macon: 79.9° (4th) Savannah: 79.9° (7th) Start of Records: Athens: 1902 Atlanta: 1879 Augusta: 1874 Columbus: 1902 Macon: 1897 Savannah: 1874

Atlanta concluded its second warmest September on record with a mean temperature of 82.4°. Only September 1925 with a mean temperature of 83.0° was warmer. During the September 16-30 period, Atlanta had a mean temperature of 80.6°. Only 1925 was warmer during the second half of September with a mean temperature of 80.7°. During September 2019, Atlanta reached 90° or above on 23 days, which tied the record set in 1925. During the September 16-30 period, there were 10 days with temperatures of 90° or above, which broke the previous record of 9, which was set in 1921 and tied in 1925 and 1931. Atlanta has been experiencing an increasing frequency of 90° or warmer days during September. The last 10 years (2010-19) averaged 9.3 days with high temperatures of 90° or above. That is the highest figure on record. The pre-2000 record was 8.0 days during the 1936-45 period. The 30-year moving average (1990-2019) is 5.1 days. That is below the record figure of 6.7 days, which was set during the 1925-54 period. During the September 16-30 period, Atlanta has averaged 3.1 90° or warmer days over the latest 10-year period. That is the highest figure on record. The pre-2000 record was 2.6 days, which was set during the 1924-33 period and tied during the 1925-34 period. The 30-year moving average is currently 1.5 days. The existing record is 2.0 days, which was set during the 1920-49 period and tied during the 1921-50 period. Overall, the average September temperature has been increasing. The current 10- and 30-year periods are the warmest on record for both the month as a whole and for the September 16-30 period. September Mean Temperature: 2010-19: 76.5° (warmest 10-year period on record); pre-2000 record: 75.4°, 1925-34 1990-2019: 74.7° (warmest 30-year period on record); pre-2000 record: 74.3°, 1919-48 September 16-30 Mean Temperature: 2010-19: 75.2° (warmest 10-year period on record); pre-2000 record: 73.1°, 1925-34 1990-2019: 72.0° (warmest 30-year period on record); pre-2000 record: 71.8°, 1929-58 and 1930-59 Record Temperatures for September 2019: Record High Minimum Temperatures: 9/24 73° (tied record set in 1931 and tied in 1980) 9/26 73° (old record: 72°, 2018) 9/27 76° (old record: 73°, 1911) *** highest minimum temperature this late in the season*** 9/29 73° (old record: 72°, 1904) 9/30 74° (tied record set in 1904) Record High Maximum Temperatures: 9/10 98° (old record: 97°, 1925) 9/11 96° (tied record set in 2010) 9/12 99° (old record: 94°, 1900) 9/13 98° (old record: 95°, 1991) 9/17 98° (old record: 97°, 1927) 9/25 93° (tied record set in 2010) 9/26 95° (old record: 90°, 1911 and 1986) 9/27 97° (old record: 93°, 1954) ***highest maximum temperature this late in the season*** 9/29 93° (old record: 92°, 1904 and 1941) 9/30 96° (old record: 91°, 1941) ***highest maximum temperature this late in the season*** Finally, through September 30, Atlanta has had 87 days on which the temperature reached 90° or higher. Only 1980 (90 days), 2011 (90 days), and 2016 (88 days) had more.

A warm September concluded today. 2019 marked the fifth consecutive year during which September had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. In the New York City area, September has increasingly become an extension of summer. Prior to 2000, a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above was relatively uncommon. Prior to 1950, Central Park saw such warmth about once every 5.4 years. From 1950-1999 (during which New York City has had a mature urban footprint), such warmth was recorded approximately once every 4.5 years. Since 2000, 70° Septembers have occurred about once every 2.0 years. There have been 10 such Septembers during the 2000-2019 period, which is just below the figure of 11 recorded during 1950-1999. Since 2010, New York City has had 7 cases where September had a mean temperature of 70° or above, including the last four years. During the last 30 years, September has had a mean temperature of 69.0 degrees, which is the warmest 30-year period on record for September. During the last 10 years, September has had a mean temperature of 70.5 degrees, which is the warmest 10-year period on record for that month. Records go back to 1869. The 1981-2010 normal temperature for September is 68.0°. A dramatic warmup will tomorrow. The heat will likely peak on October 2 with readings in the middle and upper 80s into southern New England. Locations, including Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Newark, and possibly even New York City could reach 90°. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal readings will move into the region during the latter part of the first week of October. This pattern could last 7-10 days, though not every day will be cooler than normal. Events during September, including the SOI's falling to -35.30 on September 19, the MJO's being in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the September 20-30 period for more than two days, the historic late September snowfall in Great Falls, MT, and the possible ongoing evolution toward a generally positive AO regime, favor a warmer than normal October based on past outcomes. However, recent guidance has increased uncertainty regarded to the AO's longer-term evolution. That situation bears watching, but the base case remains a warmer than normal October. The historic September Northern Rockies snowstorm had dumped among the following snowfall amounts: Babb, MT: 52.0"; Browning, MT: 48.0"; Great Falls, MT: 19.3"; and, St. Mary, MT: 45.0". Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) recorded its warmest September on record with its first 40.0° mean temperature for September. The preliminary monthly average was 40.8°. A 40.8° mean temperature was so warm that it ranked as the 27th warmest August and also the 35th warmest July out of 99 years on record. The previous monthly record of 37.7° has stood since 1998. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Such a scenario is now more likely than not. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was +8.20 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.375. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. New York City finished September with a mean temperature of 70.4°. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Following September's warmth, a warmer than normal October lies ahead. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On September 29, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.044 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.331. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%. That is an exceptionally high probability for such an outcome just before the start of the month.