donsutherland1

The storm that brought a soaking rain to much of the region, along with some snow is now departing. In its wake, milder weather will follow. Precipitation amounts through 7 pm included: Allentown: 1.06"; Boston: 1.49"; Bridgeport: 0.46"; Islip: 0.74"; New York City: 0.93"; Newark: 0.74"; Philadelphia: 0.88"; Poughkeepsie: 1.28"; and, Providence: 1.43". A few locations also saw some snow today. Snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.2"; Binghamton: 2.6"; Harrisburg: Trace; and, Philadelphia: Trace. In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.0°-28.5°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -10.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.731. Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 23. Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. However, recent runs of the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS all suggest that the AO could go positive during the first week in December. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO will go strongly positive. With no stratospheric warming events likely through at least December 3, there could be an elevated likelihood that the AO will go positive during the first week in December. Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, at least the first 7-10 days of December will likely be colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. Warmer conditions could return should Atlantic blocking dissipate. Unseasonable warmth will likely prevail in much of Alaska, including areas that are experiencing their warmest autumn on record. The base case remains a somewhat warmer than normal December as a whole, though New England and the Great Lakes region could be cooler than normal. With December likely to get off to a cold start, the potential for at least some snowfall in the Philadelphia to Boston area could exist. The first such opportunity could occur during the December 1-3 timeframe. The PNA is forecast to be somewhat negative. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 1996 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.0°.

Persistence of blocking is often key. The first half of November saw an EPO-/AO- combination and November has had 17/24 days with a negative EPO and 22/24 days with a negative AO. Since 1950, just over 70% of December cases with an AO average of +1.000 or above were warmer than normal in much or all of the East. Finally, as seems to be almost a perennial occurrence each winter, Social Media was filled with chatter of an imminent significant stratospheric warming event. In fact, none appears likely through December 3 (EPS).

Some photos from this morning near high tide on the Long Island Sound. The temperature was 46° with drizzle.

At 10 pm, areas of light rain were moving through the region from the south and west. Areas of moderate to heavy rain were located over Virginia and the Carolinas. As the approaching system strengthens and tracks through the region tomorrow, the areas of rain will likely consolidate. By the time the rain ends, much of the region will see 0.50" to 1.50" rain. Some locally higher amounts near or just above 2.00" are possible. Ahead of the storm, New York City had picked up 44.97" precipitation (72nd highest annual amount) and Newark had seen 51.32" (14th highest annual amount). Rankings for New York City and Newark for select precipitation amounts are below:

The study doesn't deal with frequency. It deals with size, strength, and destruction. Whether its findings will be reaffirmed in future peer-reviewed studies remains to be seen. If so, the study would be a candidate for a significant breakthrough in scientific understanding.

A moderate to significant rainfall will affect the big cities of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas late tonight into tomorrow. Cities such as New York, Newark, Providence, and Boston will likely pick up 0.50"-1.50" precipitation with some locally higher amounts near 2.00". In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is now concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 28.0°-28.5°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -4.08 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.723. Daily MJO data was unavailable for November 22. Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. However, recent runs of the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS all suggest that the AO could go positive during the first week in December. Based on the consistently-modeled idea of a negative to strongly negative EPO (-2.000 to -1.000) to begin December, at least the first 7-10 days of December will likely be colder than normal in much of the eastern third to eastern half of the CONUS and southern Canada. Warmer conditions could return should Atlantic blocking dissipate. Unseasonable warmth will likely prevail in much of Alaska, including areas that will see their warmest autumn on record. With December likely to get off to a cold start, the potential for at least some snowfall in the Philadelphia to Boston area could exist. The first such opportunity could exist during the December 1-3 timeframe. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 1996 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.0°.

Most of the past cases with high amplitude MJO passages through Phases 6, 7, 8 in November eventually reached the warmer phases in December. Long-range MJO forecasting skill isn’t great. Compounding things, there remains a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole. I think there will be greater clarity in about a week.

I still think the overall idea that December will finish somewhat warmer than normal despite a cold start. But we’ll see how the teleconnections are evolving as we get closer. Lately, the extended range of such forecasts has fared badly.

Their lead December analog is 1995.

The breakdown of Atlantic blocking is part of the reason the EPO- cold to start December (noted above) often gave way to warmer conditions within 10-12 days.

The EPO is forecast to fall to between -2.000 and -1.000 as November concludes. Such a development has typically seen colder than normal temperatures move into the East. Below are the composite temperature anomalies for all EPO cases from -2.000 to -1.000 (December 1-7, 1981-2018)+ 3 days: Should Atlantic blocking break down and/or the EPO- regime collapse, there would be an increased probability that the cold could be replaced by a warmer regime. From the above composite, the typical cold period lasted 10-14 days.

A moderate to significant rainfall will affect the big cities of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas late tomorrow into Sunday. Cities such as New York, Newark, Providence, and Boston will likely pick up 0.50"-1.50" precipitation with some locally higher amounts near 2.00". In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is now concluding its warmest autumn on record. Based on the latest guidance, Utqiagvik will likely have a September-November mean temperature ranging from 27.8°-28.3°. The current record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -2.42 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.258. Daily MJO data for November 21 was unavailable. Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 will likely be the coldest November since 1996 when the monthly mean temperature was 43.0°.

Today, the temperature peaked at 53° in New York City's Central Park. That was New York City's warmest temperature since November 12 when the high temperature was 57°. Tomorrow could see a somewhat higher reading before colder air returns to the region. Even as another shot of cooler air arrives, accumulating snow in such cities as Newark, New York, and Philadelphia remains a low probability scenario through the remainder of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -11.65 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.250. On November 20, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.156 (RMM). The November 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.442. Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. To date, November has an AO average of -1.225. The November 16-21 AO average is -1.661. Since 1950, there were five years that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in November and -1.500 or below during the second half of November. Out of the total of 15 months that followed, the AO averaged < 0 during 12 (80%) and -0.500 or below during 10 (67%). This data suggests that the potential for above average frequency of AO blocking for winter 2019-2020 has increased. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 97% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Through November 20, parts of the Northeast have seen above normal snowfall. Amounts include: Albany: 2.1" (0.6" above normal); Bangor: 2.7" (1.9" above normal); Binghamton: 4.0" (0.2" above normal); Buffalo: 12.6" (7.7" above normal); Burlington: 11.0" (8.3" above normal); and, Caribou: 14.7" (7.5" above normal). For at least the next 7-10 days, accumulating snow in such cities as Newark, New York, and Philadelphia remains a low probability scenario. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -19.79 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.096. On November 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.772. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Since 1974, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 to 2.000 during the November 10-25 period on three or more days in eight years, as was the case this year. In 6/8 (75%) cases, the AO wound up averaging > 0 during December; in 5/8 (63%) it averaged +0.500 or above; and, in 4/8 (50%), it averaged +1.000 or above. In 2/8 (25%) cases, it averaged -2.000 or below (2005 and 2010). In 5/8 (63%) cases, December was warmer than normal in the New York City area. At present, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the Arctic Oscillation in the extended guidance. Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase. Should blocking persist, the amount of warming could be reduced. At present, there remains considerable uncertainty about the AO in the extended range. The EPS forecasts the AO's going weakly positive in early December. The GEFS suggests that blocking will persist into at least the first week of December. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 95% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Readings ranged from the upper 40s in the northern Middle Atlantic region to the lower 50s farther south. No new Arctic blasts are likely for at least the next two weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -27.36 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.804. On November 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.775 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.459. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Since 1974, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 to 2.000 during the November 10-25 period on three or more days in eight years, as was the case this year. In 6/8 (75%) cases, the AO wound up averaging > 0 during December; in 5/8 (63%) it averaged +0.500 or above; and, in 4/8 (50%), it averaged +1.000 or above. In 2/8 (25%) cases, it averaged -2.000 or below (2005 and 2010). In 5/8 (63%) cases, December was warmer than normal in the New York City area. At present, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the Arctic Oscillation in the extended guidance. Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 94% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

While much of the region saw readings not far from 40°, record heat again prevailed in parts of California. Records included: Long Beach: 92° (old record: 90°, 1989); Los Angeles: 93° (old record: 88°, 1989); and, San Diego: 91° (old record: 86°, 1949). Overnight, most of the region will likely see periods of rain, but pick up less than 0.50" rain. Areas well to the north and west of New York City, especially in the higher terrain, could pick up a coating of snow. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -27.36 today. 　 An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.　 Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.264. 　 The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through at least late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal for the November 16-30 period). 　 On November 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.461 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.338. 　 The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. 　 It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.　 Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase.　 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 92% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Yet another example of a cruise ship that had no clue about the well-modeled storm that is raging off the Southeast. https://www.wbal.com/article/421416/3/baltimore-cruise-ship-delays-return-due-to-storm Hiring a meteorologist is a tiny cost per cruise and per passenger. It is almost incomprehensible that a major cruise line would sail blindly oblivious to forecast weather conditions.

Here's what I wrote, which is at the beginning of this thread: Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one. The initial sensitivity analysis suggests that New York City has an implied 40% probability of having a warmer than normal November. At the time, I noted the colder guidance, but had not expected the AO to assert itself in the way that has happened. The basic premise was that the MJO would continue to play a leading role in shaping the November outcome. That assumption proved incorrect leading to a bad November forecast. At present, there is considerable uncertainty about the AO's state in the extended range. One also cannot be sure when its predominant influence will wane and multiple factors, including but not limited to the MJO, will exert a greater influence.

Frigid air brought some additional record low temperatures to northern New England. Burlington tied its daily record low temperature of 7°, which had been set in 1924. At Caribou, the temperature fell to -1°, breaking the record low of 4°, which was set in 1943. More impressively, that is the earliest subzero temperature on record for Caribou. The prior earliest such reading occurred on November 21, 1959 with a temperature of -1°. On parts of the West Coast, record heat prevailed. Records included: Camarillo, CA: 94°(old record: 92°, 1932); Los Angeles: 93° (old record: 91°, 1949); Redding, CA: 87° (old record: 83°, 1895 and 1936); San Diego: 88° (tied record set in 1976); and, San Francisco: 74° (old record: 73°, 1989 and tied in 2008). As an anecdote, the following cases among the years cited above for which California's heat records were tied and broken, 1932, 1936, 1949, and 2008 saw a cold November and warm December in the East. 1976 and 1989 saw a continuation of the cold in December. In short, one cannot rule out a pattern change that results in a milder December, even if the guidance does not yet show such an outcome. A strong coastal storm will pass offshore tonight and tomorrow bringing some showers and perhaps periods of rain to the region, along with gusty winds. Most of the region will likely pick up less than 0.50" rain. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. With a high temperature of 78°, Key West's record stretch of 234 consecutive days (from March 28 through November 16) with high temperatures of 80° or above came to an end. The prior record was 225 consecutive days, which was set in 1965. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -9.17 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.364. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through at least late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). On November 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.337 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.283. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. With the AO currently serving as the "king" of the Northern Hemisphere pattern, weakening of the AO domain blocking, could provide the first tangible evidence that a pattern change toward milder weather is imminent. For now, even as a milder than normal December appears more likely than not, the timing of the necessary pattern change remains uncertain. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 92% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 could finish with a monthly average temperature that could be the coldest since 2012 (43.9°) or perhaps even 1996 (43.0°) in New York City.

An Arctic air mass passed across northern New England today, only grazing parts of the region. Caribou had a low temperature of 8° this morning, which broke the previous daily mark of 10° from 1985. In contrast, Newark had a low temperature of 32°.　 The strong coastal storm that will lash the Carolinas tonight and tomorrow will pass sufficiently far offshore to avoid bringing much of the region significant rainfall. Most of the region, with perhaps the exception of parts of Suffolk County and New Haven County eastward will likely pick up less than 0.50" rain. Gusty winds are likely Sunday and Monday. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide.　 Miami's near-record streak of 225 consecutive 80° days, which began on April 5, ended today as the mercury topped out at 78°. That was just below the record of 227 consecutive days, which was set from March 31, 1994 through November 12, 1994.　 In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) remained on track for its warmest autumn on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Utqiagvik is on course for an autumn mean temperature 26.6°-27.4°. The record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.　 In terms of global temperatures, the October GISS data is now in. Despite parts of the Northern Rockies experiencing the coldest October on record, October 2019 ranked as the second warmest October on record with a +1.04°C anomaly. Only 2015 with a +1.09°C anomaly was warmer. As a result, 2019 has a year-to-date anomaly of +0.97°C, which is the second warmest at this point in time. 2019 remains on course to be the second warmest year on record on that dataset. That last time a two-month period was cool enough to avoid such an outcome was June-July 2014 with a +0.63°C anomaly. The last time November-December was cool enough was in 2012 with a +0.66°C anomaly.　 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.　 The SOI was +1.84 today. 　 An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.　 Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.189. 　 The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative into late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). A pattern evolution toward a milder regime still appears likely to develop near the start of December as the AO is forecast to rise toward and then above neutral values. Should the current negative AO regime persist, such moderation would likely be delayed.　 Through November 16, the AO has averaged -1.059. Since 1950, 60% of cases that saw the November AO average -1.500 to -1.000 saw a December AO average below 0. Since 1950, 50% of November cases with an average AO of -.999 to -0.500 saw the AO average below 0 in December. In short, at present there is no clear signal regarding the possible predominant AO state for December.　 On November 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.278 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.860. 　 The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. 　 It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.　 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 90% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

In terms of global temperatures, the October GISS data is now in. Despite parts of the Northern Rockies experiencing the coldest October on record, October 2019 ranked as the second warmest October on record with a +1.04°C anomaly. Only 2015 with a +1.09°C anomaly was warmer. As a result, 2019 has a year-to-date anomaly of +0.97°C, which is the second warmest at this point in time. 2019 remains on course to be the second warmest year on record on that dataset. That last time a two-month period was cool enough to avoid such an outcome was June-July 2014 with a +0.63°C anomaly. The last time November-December was cool enough was in 2012 with a +0.66°C anomaly.

Currently, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant driver of the Northern Hemisphere's synoptic pattern. In part, this is why the East has been cold despite the NAO's being positive for 13/16 days this month. To date, it has averaged approximately -1.06 for November. It is likely to fall further before commencing a rise toward neutral near the end of the month. Such an outcome favors cold in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. Thus, the guidance, including the EPS and CFSv2 weeklies, has turned toward a cooler outlook for much of the remaining second half of November. The neutral EPO has reduced prospects of severe cold and the current Arctic air mass that grazed the region might be the last such outbreak for awhile. Composite Temperature Anomalies for an AO ranging from -2.00 to -1.00 (November 16-30, 1981-2018): In the extended range, the AO is forecast to go neutral and then possibly positive. AO Forecast (GEFS): Should that forecast verify, the cold pattern will likely break down unless the EPO or some other variable attains greater influence over the synoptic pattern than is currently the case (with perhaps a modest lag). For now, the AO is the key driver.

Globally, October 2019 was the second warmest on record on GISS. Only October 2015 was warmer.

In Chicago, the mean temperature was 31.2° for November 1-15. That was the coldest first half of November on record in Chicago. The previous record was 31.4°, which was set in 1991. Records go back to 1872.

Following a day where temperatures reached or exceeded 50° in much of the Middle Atlantic region, another shot of cold air will affect the region. The most significant cold anomalies will impact northern New England. New York City had a mean temperature of 44.8° for November 1-15. That was the coldest mean temperature for the first half of November since 1976 when the average temperature was 42.1°. In Chicago, the mean temperature was 31.2°. That was the coldest first half of November on record in Chicago. The previous record was 31.4°, which was set in 1991. Records go back to 1872. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +0.51 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.436. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome increasingly indicates that the probability of cooler than normal readings for the second half of November has increased. The base case is now a widespread modest cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). On November 14, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.872 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.139. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.