donsutherland1

The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT) is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out. For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

I agree with the emphasis on the nature of the rapid warming that has been taking place and continues to occur. That development needs to be considered in seasonal forecasting, etc.

I believe he meant that timing of events. It most definitely is warmer than it had been in the 1980s.

Today's preliminary value for the Arctic Oscillation is +5.180. That would surpass the daily record of +5.147, which was set in 1990.

You're welcome. It's a beautiful place. It's also a great place to see the flora respond to the weather. Now that the train show is finished, the Garden had very few people this afternoon. The orchid show opens to the public next weekend.

February 2020 had a mean temperature of 44.1° during the first week in February, the 3rd warmest figure on record. 2020 was the 11th year since regular record keeping began in 1869 during which the first week of February had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. All prior 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Milder weather will begin to return to the region tomorrow. However, a short-lived push of cold air could occur during the second half of the coming week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first two weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +3.89 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.173. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. Near or just after mid-month, the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. There remains some uncertainty concerning its amplitude and duration in Phase 6. Its amplitude and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. At present, it is likely that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal as a whole with only transient cold shots. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 15, but the upper stratosphere could warm toward mid-February. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February. On February 7, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.589 (RMM). The February 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.291. Finally, a trace of snow was recorded in Atlanta following last year's first winter on record where not even a trace of snow was recorded there.

Following yesterday’s deep storm, a colder air mass moved into the region. Nevertheless, the high temperature reached 41° in New York City and the daily mean temperature was still 2° above normal. Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the first crocus buds have broken forth. Whether they represent an accurate long-range forecast for the coming spring remains to be seen.

IMO, FV3 should not have been operationalized until the known biases that led to the initial delayed implementation were proved to have been fixed. The decision to rush its implementation was not good. If anything, the continuing issues raise questions about the FV3 core itself, namely whether it actually is better than what it replaced.

Earlier today, daily snowfall amounts were as follows at select cities: Binghamton: 7.2" Burlington: 9.9" Caribou: 8.9" (old daily record: 8.3", 1949) Snowfall totals for winter 2019-2020 to date include: Albany: 36.9" (1.1" below normal) Baltimore: 1.8" (10.7" below normal) Binghamton: 50.5" (0.6" below normal) Boston: 14.9" (11.0" below normal) Burlington: 55.0" (6.4" above normal) Caribou: 84.6" (18.6" above normal) New York City: 4.8" (9.6" below normal) Newark: 6.9" (9.2" below normal) Philadelphia: 0.3" (12.4" below normal) Portland: 46.2" (8.7" above normal) Washington, DC: 0.6" (9.5" below normal) Winter 2019-2020 is the 27th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 7. Mean total snowfall for the 26 prior cases was 15.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 27% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 73% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 12% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record. The three most recent winters that saw less than 6" snow through February 7 were: 2001-02: 3.5" total seasonal snowfall 2006-07: 12.4" total seasonal snowfall 2007-08: 11.9" total seasonal snowfall

A rapidly intensifying storm tracked through the region today. Ahead of its trailing cold front, temperatures briefly rose to records in parts of the area. High temperatures included: Boston: 56° (tied daily record set in 1878 and tied in 1925) Bridgeport: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951) Danbury: 53° (old record: 52°, 1938 and 2005) Groton: 53° (old record: 50°, 2018) Islip: 54° (old record: 52°, 1990) Nantucket: 56° (old record: 54°, 1953) New Haven: 54° (old record: 51°, 1951) New York City-Central Park: 56°(old record: 54°, 1938) New York City-JFK: 54° (old record: 53°, 1990) New York City-LGA: 58° (old record: 52°, 1951, 1953, and 1955) Newark: 60° (old record: 55°, 1990) Providence: 57° (old record: 53°, 1925 and 1946) Westhampton: 55° (old record: 52°, 2018) White Plains: 52° (old record: 51°, 1990) As a result of today's warmth, February 2020 has become just the 11th year since regular record keeping began in 1869 during which the first week of February had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. All prior 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. As the storm passed, the barometric pressure fell below 980 mb in the region. Select minimum barometric readings included: Bedford, MA: 28.66" (970.5 mb) Boston: 28.67" (970.9 mb) Bridgeport: 28.73" (972.9 mb) Concord: 28.65" (970.2 mb) Hartford: 28.65" (970.2 mb) Manchester, NH: 28.64" (969.9 mb) New York City: 28.82" (976.0 mb) Newark: 28.80" (975.3 mb) Poughkeepsie: 28.73" (972.9 mb) Sanford, ME: 28.64" (969.9 mb) White Plains: 28.74" (973.2 mb) Worcester: 28.66" (970.5 mb) In the wake of the intense storm that passed through the region earlier today, a cooler than normal, but not severely cold, weekend lies ahead. Moderation will again occur next week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -0.91 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.272. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. Near or just after mid-month, some of the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. The MJO, its amplitude, and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. At present, it is more likely than not that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal as a whole with only transient cold shots. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 14. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February. On February 6, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.292 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.041.

The light rain has flipped to wind-driven large snowflakes in the Bronx.

At 2:30 pm, temperatures were continuing to tumble after having set new daily record high readings in such locations as Islip, New York City (all three stations), Newark, Westhampton, and White Plains. Some low pressure readings included: Bridgeport: 28.73" (972.9 mb) Danbury: 28.72" (972.6 mb) Hartford: 28.65" (970.2 mb) New York City: 28.82" (976.0 mb) Newark: 28.80" (975.3 mb) Poughkeepsie: 28.73" (972.9 mb) White Plains: 28.74" (973.2 mb)

At 11:25 am, the barometric pressure at Teterboro Airport was 28.78" (974.6 mb).

Near 11 am, the warm front was pushing northward through the New York City area. The temperature in Central Park had reached 50°. Temperatures in New York City ranged from 59° on Staten Island to 45° in the Bronx. In addition, some record highs were tied or broken in the region: Islip: 53° (old record: 52°, 1990) New York City-LGA: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951 and tied in 1953 and 1955) Westhampton: 53° (old record: 52°, 2018)

Belmar, which was 48° at 7 am had a 9 am temperature of 55°. The warm front continues to push northward through New Jersey.

Morning thoughts... The EPS and GEFS are in relatively good agreement that the MJO will likely move into Phase 6 toward mid-February. Uncertainty exists with respect to amplitude (mainly amplitude of +1.000 or above vs. amplitude of +1.500 or above) and duration in Phase 6. At low amplitudes in Phase 6, the PNA has greater influence over the overall pattern during mid- and late February. In general, when the PNA is negative, warmth prevails in the Middle Atlantic region; when the PNA is positive, colder than normal conditions prevail. At high amplitudes when tropical forcing is stronger, the AO has a greater influence. The AO+ is warm; the AO- is cold. The latest guidance suggests that the AO will likely remain positive to strongly positive for at least the next two weeks. There is more uncertainty concerning the state of the MJO. Overall, based on the preponderance of guidance, odds may somewhat favor a warmer than normal February 15-21 period overall with cold shots being relatively transient in nature. That has been the base case in the extended range on the EPS. The GEFS have moved in that direction.

Wonderful photo. Burlington has been somewhat below normal in terms of snowfall (greater snow deficits in southern Vermont). That should change over the next two weeks.

Overnight, the area of precipitation split into two distinct areas, one associated with the cold front and one offshore. As a result, precipitation totals were much lower than had been modeled across much of the region. At 6 am, the warm front was advancing toward central New Jersey. The temperature was 52° in Atlantic City with winds out of the south. Farther south, readings were in the middle and upper 50s in such cities as Salisbury and Washington, DC. Meanwhile, at Newark, the temperature was 41° with a north-northeast wind. At New York City, the temperature was 39° with a northeast wind. As a rapidly strengthening storm comes northward, the warm front will likely push across the region during the middle or latter part of the morning. Temperatures could then rise rapidly into the 50s for several hours ahead of the trailing cold front. Daily record high temperatures could be challenged in a few locations. Select daily records include: Bridgeport: 52°, 1951 Islip: 52°, 1990 New York City: 54°, 1938 Newark: 55°, 1990 Providence: 53°, 1925 and 1946

A very warm first week of February is concluding on a wet and wild note. A rapidly intensifying storm will pass just to the north and west of Newark and New York City tomorrow morning. As it does so, it will likely pull very warm northward across eastern portions of the New York City area from the Southeast where temperatures flirted with and, in some cases, set daily record high temperatures today. High temperatures included: Albany, GA: 80°; Atlanta: 72°; Charleston, SC: 74°; Columbia, SC: 75°; Macon, GA: 78° (old record: 77°, 1927); Savannah: 80°; and, Wilmington, NC: 76°. As a result, daily record high temperatures are likely in Islip, New Haven, and later Providence. There is also a chance that New York City's lowest remaining daily record high temperature of 54°, which was set in 1938, could be toppled. On account of the warmth, the February 1-7 mean temperature will very likely average near 44.0° in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Overnight into tomorrow morning, the storm will likely bring 0.50" to 1.50" rain to the Middle Atlantic region. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Select rainfall amounts through 8 pm in the South included: Asheville: 3.01" (old daily record: 1.85", 1897; 4th highest daily rainfall amount in February); Atlanta: 2.28"; Charlotte: 3.02" (old daily record: 2.91", 1955); and, Norfolk: 1.02". As the storm moves past the region, strong winds will buffet the area. A period with gusts of 50 mph or above is possible from mid-morning into late afternoon. The temperature will then fall rapidly during the evening. A cooler than normal, but not severely cold, weekend lies ahead. Moderation will again occur next week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +0.24 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.115. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. Near or just after mid-month, some of the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. The MJO, its amplitude, and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 13. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February. On February 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.045 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.684.

Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain.

Today was noticeably cooler than yesterday, but still warmer than normal for the season. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will very likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. Nevertheless, the pattern will be increasingly active over the next week. Tonight into tomorrow and tomorrow night into Friday, a pair of storms will affect the region. Over the next 60 hours, much of the region will see 1.25"-2.50" precipitation with locally higher amounts. The most likely areas to see accumulating snowfall from these storms will be northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England. Another system could follow during the weekend. Some rain or snow showers with perhaps a minor accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, DC to New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +6.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.167. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 13. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February. On February 4, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.681 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.681.

From Copernicus: Global temperatures were substantially above average in January 2020. The month was: - 0.77°C warmer than the average January from 1981-2010, becoming by a narrow margin the warmest January in this data record; - warmer by 0.03°C than January 2016, which was previously the warmest January; - close to 0.2°C warmer than January 2017, which is now the third warmest January; - exceeded in anomalous warmth only by February and March 2016. European-average temperature anomalies are generally larger and more variable than global anomalies, especially in winter, when they can change by several degrees from one month to the next. The European-average temperature for January 2020 was particularly high. The month was: - 3.1°C warmer than the average January in the period 1981-2010; -warmer than any other January in this data record, by about 0.2ºC in the case of January 2007, the previous warmest January. https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2020

Morning thoughts... The Arctic Oscillation is now poised to begin a rise to extreme positive levels over the next several days. Through the coming weekend, little or no accumulating snow is likely for snow-starved Baltimore, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. An AO+ pattern favors upstate New York, northern New England, and southern Quebec. Such cities as Burlington, Caribou, Montreal, and Plattsburgh typically do well in such patterns. For reference, a quick look at Burlington is in order. Through February 4, Burlington had received 41.6" snow, which is 5.2" below normal. During the February 1-14, 1950-2019 period, Burlington had daily snowfall of 2"or more on 9.9% days and daily snowfall of 4" or more on 5.2% days. However, when the AO was +1.000 or above, those percentages increased to 11.2% and 6.5% respectively. Therefore, based on the forecast pattern, Burlington has an above climatological probability of seeing such snowfall. In fact, when the AO was +1.000 or above, the frequency of daily snowfall of 10" or more was just over 80% above climatology. Consistent with the pattern, the guidance is in reasonable consensus that Burlington will likely see 10"-20" snow through February 9. As a result, Burlington will likely move from below average seasonal snowfall to above average seasonal snowfall at the end of the coming weekend.

Temperatures again rose into the 50s and 60s in the Middle Atlantic region today. High temperatures included: Allentown: 60°; Atlantic City: 69° (old record: 68°, 1991); Baltimore: 67°; Georgetown, DE: 69° (old record: 66°, 1988); Islip: 53°; New York City: 60°; Newark: 59°; Philadelphia: 64°; Richmond: 72° (tied record set in 1991); Salisbury: 67°; Sterling: 67°; Washington, DC: 65°; and, Wilmington, DE: 68° (old record: 67°, 1991). Following today's warmth, tomorrow will be noticeably cooler, but still warmer than normal for the season. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. Nevertheless, the pattern will become increasingly active over the next week. Tomorrow night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday, a pair of storms will affect the region. Over the next 84 hours, much of the region will see 1.25"-2.50" precipitation with locally higher amounts. The most likely areas to see accumulating snowfall from these storms will be northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England. Another system could follow during the weekend. A light accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, DC to New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +3.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.191. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak above +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, neither Philadelphia nor New York City saw any 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 12. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February. On February 3, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.668 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.606.

The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015): Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week. The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas. Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea.