H2Otown_WX

On 12/14/2023 at 10:09 AM, CoastalWx said:

How is that confusing? There is maybe .3 watts/M2 additional in strongest cycles. Look it up.

So then why do you think it felt abnormally warm? Do you think it's just that it was in the mid 40s? The other thing is I have black leather seats so maybe because it was so sunny...

On 12/14/2023 at 10:09 AM, CoastalWx said:

How is that confusing? There is maybe .3 watts/M2 additional in strongest cycles. Look it up.

It's confusing because I'm learning disabled

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully something happens after Christmas.

It will...but not til Valentine's Day

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t like Bs for us WOR folks. Ideally a hybrid but I’ll roll with a A and take a chance at LBSW instead of a B that LBEMA. 

A lot of our best storms are Miller Bs. Miller A usually is LBSW.

2/5/01, 12/9/05 (though that was better East of us), 1/12/11, and I think maybe 1/26/11, and of course 2/9/13 (Nemo) were all Miller Bs.

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Sun about at peak for the solar cycle.

Ohhhh, is that what it is? Well thanks for the info, I thought the ozone layer was just that depleted lol

Did anyone else notice it felt strangely warm given that we're only a week from the solstice? Like in my car it felt way warmer than I ever remember...granted it was around 45 but still

50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wasn’t that a raging pac nino season? I vaguely remember a nino sometime in the mid/late 90s that was warm and wet which actually skewed my belief back then that “el nino’s” are bad for our winters.  

Sounds like 97-98

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Why is climo such a tough concept to grasp and understand? 

Because 2000-2018 was a special stretch that's very unlikely to be duplicated

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This dude is hashtagging NatGas and energy while posting 2m temps from the day 7 op gfs. Is this amateur hour?

And why are we looking for a Plains cold dump in El Nino?

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, we know that's wrong, look where the jack is.

We also know because, "snowy winters in Massachusetts are a thing of the past."

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

tick-tock, it's already a lot of wasted time it could have been snowing. That's how I see it.  Every day is a blessed day when it doesn't snow/ice, and usually mid/late October is when that season begins here.

Where are you, Quebec City?

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The day before Tday in 2002 was sort of a NJ model low....really popped quick and I think CT jackpotted with some 10"+ lollis on what was something like a 3-6/4-8 forecast.

 

This is prob the storm Tip was thinking of in 1986:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1986/us1119.php

Yeah I had 9.5" if I'm not mistaken. I think it snowed on Black Friday too. Upper level stuff rotated through.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...and while I'm dating myself, ha I go back to the 1980s.  A lot of autumns between 1985 and 1990 had an affinity for Novie events. Those were bad years overall for winter weather enthusiasts, but subjectivity aside ... they did produce some Novie exceptions to that rule.

One of my favorites was in 1986 ( but it might have been then one in 1987).  A high of 52 out at Logan the afternoon before. This was prior to the dramatic variability over short duration we've grown accustomed to over the decades since; back then, 52 would seem rather incongruous with any kind of dynamic snow bomb.  The sky was macro textured nearing sunset, the wind calms. Tranquil. Utterly unremarkable.

But while that was the case, upstream ... a nasty torpedo jet at mid levels (just a description for a powerful wind max embedded in a S/W that actually lacks a lot of geometric curvature) with a wind max over 120kts was unzipping the sky over the southern Great Lakes. Cleveland was reporting thundersnow around 3:30 pm.  It was somewhere around November 10 I wanna say but for all my protestation about my love for weather events, as well as my clear proclivity for discussion surrounding them ... I suck donkey balls at remembering dates. I am 100% certain this was November, tho.

Turned on The Weather Channel like any after-school day.  They were doing the Gardening Report segment, which at that time carried no meaning or purpose to the natural cosmos for me... but as it aired, "beep beep beep-beep.  beep beep beep-beep"  Fists grip thighs followed by my own, "OOH OOH OOH."  From right to left across the bottom of the screen scrolls, "...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FROM 11PM TONIGHT UNTIL 12PM TUESDAY ..."  Just typing that brings back memories, like when you hear a favorite song you haven't heard in a long while.  I used to love those moments. Steeped in boredom, seems there's nothing that is ever going to happen exciting ever again, when out of nowhere those beep chimes cut through the malaise like a light beam from salvation.

See, back then the culture of awareness was entirely a different reality.  There wasn't any internet.  There wasn't any cell phones.  I think personal pagers weren't even ubiquitous just yet.  The cable companies still only carried maybe 40 or 50 channels airing anything imaginable other than live news ... much less weather-related news information?  TWC was the only one that carried weather-related 'drama.'  Otherwise, you had to wait until 5 or 6 pm, 11pm or 7am to get updates and forecasts.  So, these tickers and special cut-ins were a bigger deal, an experience that will probably never be shared again since the 1990s rolled around and put the entire world in everyone's lap - it's been drama pap on tap ever since. A ticker for winter system wouldn't even lift a chin over a shoulder by most nowadays.

Anyway, Harvey Leonard ( recently retired) was a local on-air fan fav Met at the time, and he came on 5 and it was a dreamy presentation.  I remember his words, if not exact to a very close tolerance of precision, "Now, you might be thinking, 'what, snow' after a high temperature of 52 this afternoon, but it appears that as this storm emerges off the New Jersey coast overnight it will rapidly intensify and trickle down just enough cold air from up N to flip a lot of the area over to a period of heavy snow..."  -never forget.

I awoke at 3:30 am to the sound of thunder.  I could here rattling by the window at the far side of the bedroom, where the screen part of the storm window's metal frame had long since slipped it's rails and would upon occasion carry on with it when the wind blew.  As I was looking that direction through the dark at the butter scotch glow in the sky the bled through, there was another flash followed by the report.  That 2nd one had me out of bed and staring with gaped expression as curtains of snow, glowing from the city scape lights, waved their way over swaying silhouetted tree lines.  Another flash of lightning. 

So, I'm getting dress as quickly as possible... I think I actually kept my p.j. bottoms on and just threw on my boots and my winter parka/hoodie and set out.  The only sounds was that of snow particle on the hood and white howls of the wind as it transported heavy snow.  There was only 3 or 4" at the time... but it would end up closer to 10 or 11" by the time the storm wrapped up around 10am. I believe southern Mass put up some bigger numbers than that.  That was the only day in the entire 1980s I attended Acton Boxborough Regional High School where municipal would call it quits and phone in a snow day. 

Funny ... if a hockey rink dumps their Zamboni slush out back of the facility these days surrounding townships seem to call in snow days as if were a nuclear waste disposal accident. 

There was another one similar to that..  These are quick hitters, "New Jersey model lows" they used to be called in AFDs back in the day. They tend to come down as Alberta Clipper type lows. Some do and some don't have more obviously sexy storm vitals while diving SE over Chicago - this one with the Cleveland thunder snow apparently did.  But as they bottom out over the Ohio Valley and then immediately next ... their nose of dynamic power sniffs the baroclinic powderkeg along the Eastern Seaboard ...       boom!  Whatever they may have lacked, they can go from a limited satellite presentation to an explosive baroclinic leaf in a matter of short hours.   I guess if we want to be technical, Dec 2005 was one of these on 'roids.  1989 there was a biggie around Thanks Giving, but that one may have been a more full latitude type of storm genesis - different total spatial aspects.

That's an awesome memory. The 2012 event wasn't as dynamic as that one. I remember the scrolling on TWC in the early and mid 2000s before the channel went to hell. Great memories but I don't recall much in the way of November events, certainly not early in the month. There was the storm the day before Thanksgiving in '02 though...kicked off a nice start to an awesome winter. Would you say these "NJ model lows" favor eastern NE? I'm guessing the storm you're referring to wasn't much down this way.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I get the sentiment but I'm not really ready to think that CC is effecting the GFS by a whole month before I'm willing to bet the GFS is just getting better.  There's been like 4 model updates since 2018.  LOL funny the way that was snuck in that post though. 

Seriously though, this was a very impressive -EPO burst over the last 10 days.  The subsequent cold roll-over across the continent as we near the entrance to the solar minimum months of the year is not entirely a bad fit for that index modality.  That's a marginal wet snow event depicted there on Novie 11.  I've seen enough fun NJ model lows throw down thundersnow on or around that date to know that's not really unprecedented.

2012 comes to mind

5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Last year,first 5 days BN

Oh ok, I was in Florida

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, though I was close this AM.....balmy first half of October, nonetheless.

When's the last time we didn't have a balmy first half of October? Feels like it's been almost 20 years.

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Disaster stricken areas disagree.. it's not that simple. Theoretically it should be easy but it never is.  

At least we probably won't be on the windy side. We'll just float away, nbd

1 hour ago, Spaizzo said:

West side if we were to be brushed. Lots of rain? Sorry after Irene I wouldn’t wish that rain inundation on anyone. Down here we’ve had some really good torrential rains the past day. More rain to come and in more rain and a little wind trees toppling due to moist ground would be my concern here. The flooding VT and other areas got during Irene the scars are still evident driving from Greenfield to Wilmington/Dover area. One thing I wouldn’t want to wish on anyone.


.

Don't forget we had that really rainy period in September right after Sandy. I lived by Thomaston Dam at the time, it was the second highest the water level ever got there. They let it out into Black Rock Lake and the water was halfway up a steeply inclined road that's no longer used. Crazy times.

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

not even todays storms can take away the bittersweet feeling of losing a cane

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Dle9h0WuEF4&pp=ygUVZnVlbCBiaXR0ZXJzd2VldCB3YWFm

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a nasty day. But some May June stein.

Fixed

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Beautiful evening for baseball 

Where the hell was my invite? :(

On 4/22/2023 at 5:17 PM, BrianW said:

I'm down in West Palm Beach and the weather has been epic. Such a special place...

The front will eventually make it down to South Florida on Sunday in terms of a wind shift, but it will not be felt temperature-wise as temps will still hit the upper 80s with 90 degrees possible over the interior. 

 

Looks nice, Idk...I lived there for six months up until last month and it felt too hot to me. The sun angle is just too strong. That doesn't even account for the humidity since that happens mostly in the six months I wasn't there.

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Top 5 day today

And yet everyone from here wants to live in FL. 

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 

My guess would be January '07

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

He was only off by 15 degrees. 

You mean for what you guys had today? I thought he was saying the pattern sucked and this thing around Xmas wouldn't pan out. Maybe he says that about everything though lol.