H2Otown_WX

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro snow maps look nice .. Nice storm track.. But man that's close to all rain on a benchmark track for many .. Cold never really pours in like yesterday's runs 

You know what they say...to get the biggest totals you gotta be able to smell the rain.

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regression? Its climo for her to take you to the shed....gonna be a long wait for VT to regress to southern CT lol Some bump worthy material from the southern folks for when this begins the inexorable late charge northward

Oh, I was expecting a clean whiff. I wasn't trying to say I expect to beat VT lmao

11 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Gefs coming in slightly more suppressed...

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Confluence and regression are a bitch

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday)

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Oh ok...congratulations!

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Next on deck: 0z NAM

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Are you and Astronomy Enjoyer the same person?

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF continues slowing the vort down and amping it up... better PNA ridge initially is likely the culprit

slower is better as the northern stream has a better chance to catch up

That confluence looks awful

3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

As thread the needle as you can get

Don't bother using 10:1...it's a bunch of sleet anyway, not that it matters at this juncture

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have a feeling if this change is going to be real, the models are rushing it and it probably happens post Valentine’s Day

I have a feeling it will wait until March to happen so we can freeze our asses off while hoping for a miracle bowling ball that won't work out except in high eles.

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Years with zero Dec snow do not bode well for a big snowfall winter.  Exceptions of course but as a rule what happens in Dec the winter will remember

Agreed, '14-'15 is like the only exception I can think of in my lifetime...maybe '04-05? Can't remember that December.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I don't buy a whiff.

I don't buy anything noteworthy, either

17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

"Torching" down here to start, already 38° and raining steadily, forecast was 34. Good luck up north.... Looks we need we need to wait until at least the 2nd week in February down here for anything wintry....

Huh, would think Pope would be all over this...yesterday he was tweaking over nothing

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

‘Flips calendar to Feb…’

2024 or...

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey that’s fine, and I get that completely. But being away doing something wintry that I love, and not being on here, was a well needed break. Limiting time here, can do wonders as I said. Too much of this is no good. 

Welcome back. I highly recommend skimming the last 35 pages or so...you missed some very entertaining stuff.

Yesterday? "torchcity" Today?

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s def a +PNA. Looks where the anomalies are….low anomalies S of the Aleutians and higher anomalies in western Canada. 

 

It’s split flow though which is why we see the lower height anomalies in California and the southwest. That can be a great pattern for us if there’s cold around but we’d prob want to sharpen the ridge a little more to lower the heights over the northeast. 

Looks more like a -EPO and neutral or slightly -PNA but I guess that owes to the split flow you mentioned.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Webb says February will be great 

Who's Webb? Is he more credible than JB?

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh. Another stretch praying for atlantic magic obsessing over marginal temps while the berks and orh hills pound. 

The 2020s climate?

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, CC is pissah.....mutant phase 5 that swallows the world and only leaves -PDO....and every major snowstorm that we do get is a CJ. 

Hopefully I have dementia in 30 years, so weather will still be fun.

One of your funniest posts in a while. Sounds like the opposite of The Day After Tomorrow. A Torch Tiger and qg_omega take over. The only events that show up on models are part of the Fraud Five. Just constant backlash and inverted trof scenarios lol.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need rain 

My  car is a mess

Idk about down there but here we had about a dozen biblical rain events in the second half of last year...so no lol

I'm sick of looking at red dots on an ensemble mean or @brooklynwx99 with his encouraging 500 mb trend GIFs. Need some actual results...the clock is ticking.

GFS lost the 28th and the Euro has nothing either. I think I'm ready to melt.

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I was on the February this is not a standard El Niño forecast very early, no surprises on the mega torch to start the month.  Fits MJO + PAC Jet

You? Forecast warmth? Nooooooooo, you don't say?

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That map is pretty much how I had envisioned January going if something like that were to work out.

Scooter and TBlizz are gonna lose it

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Huh? That was our best stretch snow wise since 15. 3 warning events one blizzard and 3 solid weeks of 8-14" of snow depth

Wow, somehow I don't remember that at all. I even worked the 2nd storm you posted though it appears BDL got shafted

6 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18-19 started the rat stretch.. we had a fluke night march storm to get us out of the teens that year for snowfall. Then 20/21 had the 3 week epic 40” Feb stretch for that winter .. other than that non stop rat winters since 18/19 .. this will be 5/6 well below average for me since building my new house which was a snow jinx 

Ok, I remember working as an observer at BDL in '18-'19. I seem to remember a storm in November and then a storm that I worked a double shift for in January. We probably had about 7" up there but it turned to sleet pretty quickly. I'm guessing it was a lot less down our way. I don't remember that March storm at all. I moved on March 31st.

I also don't remember anything about the part of '21 you're talking about. I just remember moving back from Milwaukee in December of '20 and we had a big event like a week after I got back. It was probably about a foot. We got crushed in Feb?