H2Otown_WX

Even when I move almost 1,000 miles the -NAO still screws me out of a snowstorm. Hilarious.

Can anyone offer up a physics/dynamics explanation for why the storm trended south?

19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events.

As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL.

Euro had a bump south today so it's possible. It will depend on that s/w crashing onshore in the PAC NW at the same time our storm is approaching. Maybe it will pump the ridge upstream enough for this to dig farther south?

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Rates should be pretty good, so I would expect it to stick on the pavement.

Any thoughts on ratios? That stuff a couple weeks ago had to be like 6:1. I'm guessing something similar in this case but maybe a bit better as omega looks good in the SGZ on NAM BUFKIT MKE sounding.

I wonder if this will stick to the pavement? I know that people often fall for the fallacy of the "ground is too warm" myth, but it has been pretty darn warm lately and some of this will be falling during daylight too with a high sun angle, especially west of here.

Knew it!

Euro shifted north at 00z. Hammers central/northern WI and central MN. We'll see if it's a trend or it waffles back south at 12z. My guess would be the latter.

5 minutes ago, NegativeEPO said:

It's not global warming though (at least not entirely), I'm starting to think it might be something else.

Illuminati?

Man, Euro looks snowy for Saturday. Glad I'm off.  Funny thing is my boss put the snow boards away so I think it's basically a lock.

2 hours ago, UMB WX said:

3.6"   but 4" on the ground.   Trash.  Its a shame the storm totals have no truth to them ever at the airport.

 

0700 PM SNOW 1 SW SAINT FRANCIS 42.96N 87.90W   04/14/2019 M3.6 INCH MILWAUKEE WI OFFICIAL NWS OBS    

MILWAUKEE MITCHELL AIRPORT STORM TOTAL AS OF   7 PM CDT. 0.35 INCHES LIQUID WATER   EQUIVALENT, AND 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND.  

I'm an observer at Mitchell, that's why I moved here. We take our snow measurements very seriously. Unfortunately, we don't have a good place to measure as our snow boards are obstructed by buildings.

Ripping here. I'll be moving to Waukesha next week so I guess will miss out on these private lakeside storms except when I'm at work.

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

 

Crap, I took my snow tires off before I drove out here. Oops.

Hey guys, I don't post much but just wanted to say hello since I just relocated from CT. I guess I'm officially a cheesehead.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

2016 was the lone example of record warmth in March since 2013. That was the only time that Newark reached 80 degrees during the previous 6 Marches. But Newark reached 80 degrees for the first time last February. The 68 the first week of this February was 1 degree of the week 1 record of 69 degrees. The 74 in February 2017 was the 3rd highest for the month of February.

Ah, I had forgotten about March 2013-2015. I couldn't remember what they were like...thanks for the time series. Is it unusual for Newark to not reach 80 in March? I'm guessing it happened a few times in the late 90s. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like clouds and scattered showers may limit the high temperature potential later this week. We had full sun that  maximized our early February warm up. Overperforming February warm ups and underperforming ones in March has  been a common theme recently.

They have? 

8.3" here in Watertown.

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. 

None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. 

 

Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? 

Aw, you left out the WNE special on 2/16/10.

Really struggling to saturate here at BDL. Due north wind is draining down drier air from Mass and the RH has actually been decreasing lol.

Just now, CT Rain said:

You're lucky - Woodbury flipped to rain for a while.

Yeah lived on the edge here Ryan. On the northeast side of town though. Back where I now live in Waterbury didn't do so well lol.

5.3" final in Watertown. At home in Waterbury was a toasterbath. Changed to rain almost immediately.

3.7" now in Watertown. Definitely has compacted quite a bit due to the wet nature of the snow.

2.5" in Watertown. :snowman:

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

yeah so march, not may. only May i know is May9/10 1977.

I don't remember May. I know April was really hot. I was in Cooperstown at the Baseball HOF and it was like 80F lol.

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Not of any consequence, i remember one storm there was supposed to be sleet/zr/snow and nothing really happened at all, i believe it was in March or April, don't remember any May storm in 02.

It snowed here on the first day of spring. I can't remember how much maybe about 4 or 5"?

2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I work on the electronic engine controls for that engine and the A320NEO...that aside, looks like my immediate area may get lucky while the rest of CT sucks wind, calling for 3-4 lollis to 6+ here up into the Berks...would be nice is we got a nice squall action like about 10 years ago where it dropped like 6 in 30 minutes! At this point I am hoping for a MECS or bust, no nickle and dimes, they aint gonna do it...if you think about it, wasn't it last year where we had a weekend in Feb. and a weekend in Mar. that pretty much summed up the winter, or was that 2017? I have to look at my data

Are you referring to 1/28/10? Aka the greatest snow squall ever? :)