H2Otown_WX

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS does just that

How does that pattern not also have a +PNA? Looks weird...

Hi res NAM has a lot of sneaky mid level (800-750) warmth down this way. I think there are too many red flags to forecast more than something like 4-8" along and NW of 84 and 2-4" SE of it.

Does @40/70 Benchmark have anymore thoughts on the progression to potential epicosity post 1/20?

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The winter world has returned on its axis. 

Enjoy being fringed while EMA $ in, it's the only being fringed while EMA $ in you've got

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We Reggie .. we throw bars onto field 

The straw that stirs the model suite

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sematt!

Snow capital of the universe

10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems.

That's just DIT being DIT, he knows we aren't actually getting 2' lol

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is not.a happy look for our friends in CT.

 

 

Oof, that's rough. Hopefully it's a blip but can't feel too good given that we're only 72 hours away from go time.

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

When I became a weenie in say the late 90s early 2000s Joe bastardi had an Amwx blog. That’s where I started my journey of lies 

No he had an Accuweather blog. There was no amwx lol. I also fell victim to his lies a little bit after you.

45 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I think 1/3/06 was graupel and sleet, with some paste, only reason I remember is cause it's my birthday, always take something on my birthday... not sure what it did further north tho, I was still in Waterbury at the time.

Well happy early birthday fellow (former) Waterburyian

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Give me an example of previous ones. Other than Dec ‘92. Huge pasters aren’t THAT common. They typically are smaller events. 
 

Anyways, there’s a long ways to go in this one. Could easily fall apart but today was a good day for model runs since we’re getting inside 6 days now where you’d expect things to start falling apart if they are going to. Hopefully we can keep this strong on guidance for the next couple days and that will get us inside 100 hours. 
 

 

Wasn't 1/3/06 paste? Maybe not in your area...

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Going to post in here just for archive purposes. EPS clusters below

 

Looks pretty tucked in

The Pope is awfully quiet

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s whiff and then rain. 

Is this right out of the 1973 playbook or some winter(s) from the 80s?

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like its going way of GFS.

It's beginning to look a lot like 2010, confluenceeee is a turdddd

Hopefully a burp run but if Tip says this threat may go the way of 1/5 I take that seriously.

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Non stop country music talk in a Jan thread…yup, the worst winter stretch of our lives is upon us.

It's ovah. Dick Tolleris getting excited about the 1/5 and 1/7 threats was the nail in the coffin. Close the shades til 1/25.

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS are a little more bullish on 1/7 than 1/5…the 1/5 wave a weaker and more seaward but still has some decent members. The 1/7 wave seems to have a lot more members and the mean is closer to the BM.

Would it be cold enough though?

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we don’t get going in early Jan and the can gets kicked to late month.

Might as well kick it to '24-'25 at this point

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

It's only one run, but the 0z GFS has virtually no qpf for the next two weeks following Thursday's now minor rain event.  We'll see.

Yeah c'mon man, no more referencing that meathead idiot. That's just bad juju.

GFS is a toaster bath WOR. Sey-mour Snow and Runnaway just smashed their laptops.

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They are? Thought the ensembles looked nice. 

I mean, don't ensembles look nice past D10? I feel like we're in one of those classic "moving the goalposts" scenarios.

Well, things are still looking bleak with the Solstice upon us. Since DIT won't do the honors today:

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well you consider 2 cloud to cloud lightning bolts at the BDL McDonalds memorable .. 

I mean, it's a great McDonald's