DopplerWx
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Everything posted by DopplerWx
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if we got even half the fantasy storms models showed 150hrs out for our area we'd have snowfall totals similar to buffalo. we will likely find a way to screw it up.
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agree. we have seen so many times the past few years to take these clown maps with a grain of salt. expect mainly sleet and rain and then any snow you get will be a bonus. i don't care if every ensemble shows 12"+ (see RDU in Jan 2017), I won't expect a thing until snow is actually falling and accumulating. nam should be able to sniff out the transition zones and problem areas around 36-48hrs out.
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lp location is nearly identical to 18z, hp just not cutting it
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much warmer at 144, nice cold rain for much of nc.
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watch the radar, it is moving wnw, storms dont travel in a straight line. *click to animate
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recon shows a near due west turn over the past 3 passes. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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per the most recent recon pass the center as already begun the turn.
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yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn.
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3k nam is ridiculous, widespread 10"+ totals inland and still raining late saturday.
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you can see the slowdown and slow drift westward here https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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center tightening up and convection firing around the center now that she is over the gulf stream, several models showed strengthening as it approached the coast and took the left turn. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir
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got a link? EDIT: nevermind, found it https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/oceanana-pier/584204204e65fad6a7709992
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3k nam just offshore wilmington at 15hr. shows the core really tightening up as it approached the coast.
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euro and gfs not far off, euro just a bit more offshore but both take very similar paths.
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of course joe had to put the loop with a possible emergence off the northeast coast lol.
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agree, western eyewall looks really good now, recon about to head thru it too, lets see how the winds have responded. https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min/20180912-1243z.html
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when is recon going back in? haven't had a flight since this morning?
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ended up a tick slower than the 12z gfs but pretty close to the same landfall location.
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identical to the gfs at 48 EDIT: now it is a bit further east at 54.
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yep gfs south and west thru 36 as well.
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great post, thanks for the verification maps. looks like it will all come down to that turn and how far the ridge stretches.
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fv3 has shifted sw significantly the past 3 runs, comings towards the EPS solutions of a myrtle landfall. i think we see the eps score a coup here as models continue to converge on myrtle over the next 72hrs.
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that is yesterday's run
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gfs pretty far east this run, wtf?
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posted in main thread but it is south of nhc track. https://media.giphy.com/media/wHZcnh2bTCBA2f0a8i/giphy.gif
