Bubbler86

So you work for a railroad?

You are right and I did the same thing as you but miscounted the blues. Thanks!

Add to the pile of less phased solutions...the JMA. Sends the SE corner of PA above freezing for a bit but still a major winter storm. 1.5 to 1.75 of qpf.

Check out deep thunder from the MA thread. No to this.

LOL, man you have been great but PLEASE do not stop your vacation for us.

Pitt actually does quite well with that map.

The mean is pretty wound up but does go south of us.

It is sounding promising. Not driving a low up west of PA.

Yea, you guys need a large Miller A. I bet you get screwed by B's all the time.

Yoda posted them. Obviously a better ending than the GFS.

And Mag, you are the MJO expert for our forum and others as well so it is always interesting to read your thoughts on it. It is fun (or can be for some) to play the model flipping game some days but the MJO forecasting is hard core Met stuff. In this case if it stays in 4-6 too long it is going to ruin our supposed big hurrah to winter.

Working from home this week so have time to scan through for these models...here is an overachiever for Thursday.

The site where I am looking at the UK is a bit hard to make out things but it appears to keep the whole column below freezing for the whole state as it pertains to this weekend but a bit hard to read so hopefully someone posts the maps.

Just read in the MA forum that the UK is holding tight to it's less phased solution and taking the LP into VA.

I also suspect that whatever is depicted on any given model, the surface temps of many posters here will struggle to turn this into plan rain (except the situation where the low goes west of PA...then we are into the 50's). Regardless of what trends show the word is that PA is in for a complicated winter storm. If you have read a few of my many posts the last few days you may have noticed I am hoping for a more snowy solution vs. trying to hold on to FRZA with 1/4" an hour rain rates so some of my posts are slanted that way. And yea on the CMC I noticed it was quite west but the 540 line stopped advancing between 90 and 96 when the coastal started to influence the situation.

Try to find some gems in the rough here....CMC/GEM is still close to a lesser phased solution. We are still in play here.

In this case, and I think you spoke about this last night, it is all about the phasing. Last night the models tended toward a strung out/separate WAA type situation and today they are beginning to phase back in the midwest. Whatever happens is surely not what the models show now but I guess I am looking for some type of trend away from the amplified solution.

If it did not almost exactly match the icon for surface features and heights, I would love to but other than surface temps those two runs look too similar unfortunately.

GFS actually shows rain for Thursday night in SW PA now...and parts of the LSV. Was not expecting that. 12Z is taking back some of our positive trends from last night. It has gone back into a phasing scenario, not as extreme as yesterday 12Z but not good for us, and we get a warm rain washing away any front end dump. Into the 40's for LSV.

Personally I am going to hope the Icon is not our final solution. Driving rain with temps 32-35. 540 line is up near NY. Weekend front end "thump" would only be a maybe 4, 5 inches for LSV.

Verbatim I guess but it is phasing back in the Midwest so it eliminates the chances of a little or no phase system early in that run. Also does a retrograde or transfer vs. drive up into NY like yesterday's GFS. A solution like this, on game day, will make for a very hard forecast.

I think we are going to need some fancy stuff to happen with the Icon as well as it is north of Texas with the SLP at 60.

The Nams final result (up to 84) is not bad for us but how it got there seems to be questionable...it almost retrogrades the SLP.

The NAM is driving the weekend system a bit further North and West unfortunately. Lots of people say to not take the NAM seriously beyond 48 but last evening it was one of the first to show a less phased system and it has backed off that thought.

12Z Nam is still game for a 6 hour snowfall tomorrow evening, starting 6-9PMish, and dropping 1-3".