18Z HRRR looks like Fred is going to get to WV then block and move off to the east. Very winter storm like for stuff we have seen the last few years. 3K Nam still wants to make this a Pitt flooder.
It is very much dependent on Fred though. It's drought on if Fred slides down his dinosaur more to our west. That 8.4 up there is a 2 even without Fred.
Or maybe you are bubbler since we both like stats and posted at the same exact time? AND we are both rain starved. Fred goes much farther East than the GFS (on the euro).
I agree that the chances of this turning into an extreme drought (for those under drought designations) is pretty slim. Cashtown's figures for Adams county are pretty bad though. He has a negative 4" departure over the last 30 days.
Yea the wood was to the west of the LSV for the most part. Pitt rains. GFS is not overly wet either but still a soaking for most. Most of Fred well to the west.
12Z 3K still lays the wood on your guys then the low is blocked or transferred East across the state with torrential downpours for some. Wed would be a very wet day for most of PA.
Yes, thanks. None of the models go anywhere near that but a storm could do the trick. I am fairly far east though (parts of Cumberland county are west of me) so may not get much Fred action as of now.
A nice soaking heavy mist/light rain the last 30 mins over here. Not hard enough to get under the trees but giving the grass that is still alive a drink.
Yea, its not going to be a comfortable cool down. GFS does have 2-3 90 degree days in the last half of the month now. Nothing much above normal though. I am pretty much done with summer. Much of my travel plans for fall have been scuppered due to the new "issues" but I am going to enjoy it locally one way or another.
I am hopeful but know its not here until I am seeing it. Yesterday's 12K NAM has that low just at the spot that I could get dry slotted and still does today. I think almost all of PA has a chance of flash flooding today and tomorrow. Maybe not far S/E.
It very well could have had the center and heavy qpf transferring at 66 like 12K. But a lot of the stuff in Central PA on the 3K is tonight like you mentioned.