This coldinista thinks higher will be the better forecast. There is a limit on it as its not much over 80 in South VA. The HIA can only do so much to the LSV, right?
Certainly a chance with the 80's so close by. What I am most impressed with is the CMC sniffing it out and seeing the GFS and Euro bend to its will. Keeps things interesting and shows you cannot dismiss anything with a definitive wave of the keyboard. GFS concurs now as well.
Monday Afternoon from 10/22 12Z GFS
Monday Afternoon from the 10/20 12Z Run
Probably deserves mention that the CMC was the first model I saw that predicted the Monday SLP would traverse well north of us vs down through the Southern Mid-Atlantic. Other models have trended in this direction and it sets up the chance of a record high on Monday as the S/W flow ahead of the cold front streams mid to upper 70's weather near or over the LSV.
Thanks. Sticking with this line of thinking, I am still sticking with my call of 5-7 days below normal at MDT before month end. HIA screwed me out of 1-2 days earlier this week otherwise I would be really confident about it. Both PIT PHL were below normal the 17th and 18th but not our warm loving MDT guys.
I think @TimB84 had some info on that. It's currently at +7.5 for MDT. Just using the GFS as an example, if the forecasted highs of below normal come to fruition much of next week, that number will get knocked down quite a bit.
GFS continues its chilly streak next week (rain enhanced). At MDT it stays under (or maybe near) 60 from Sunday Evening until Friday Afternoon. Even cooler for Northern folks of course.
Did not mean to insult but yea, even places 30 min north of Harrisburg couple be considered out there as it gets sparsely populated real quick. Pine Grove and that whole 209 corridor.