Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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That pesky H is getting in the way of a monster
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The GFS and Icon both hold onto the primary longer IMO. If that happens then we are all in the game for 6-12 with JB Lollipops. Not that it is a given yet but the longer transfer delays, the more lift we bring into our hood. If this is not a real Miller B then it is going to wallop us based on these runs. I keep forgetting these Kuch maps include any snow tomorrow per the GFS. King Icon leading the way?
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Not sure what the PBP in the MA is seeing but the GFS made a substantial move North with the fgen snows. Coastal influence into Tue. Sort of backs the Icons move but not quite as drastic.
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18Z GFS a bit souther with the feature for tomorrow...where a front of an actual forming vort.
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Not sure why it is attacking the pseudo 50/50 low like that. That low has not changed position much from the last few runs and the kicker to its west is even farther away than some runs where the Icon forced this south of us. So no phasing IMO. Warm air from the SE is punching in much more easily and moisture is spreading much farther north. I mix on the Icon.
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Icon with a MIC drop. Attacks the block Marysville Webcam watching the Icon (He is ringing a bell you dirty bastards)
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Heavy snow through the SW 1/3 of PA at 84 on the Icon. 2MB lower and still a bit north from 12Z. Yikes, at 90 Mix line is coming into PA. A disaster for those south of us.
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Icon a smidge North at 72.
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18Z 84HR Nam
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It is not as obvious on the latest run but on the 6Z run it looks like it was closing off as if it was trying to take over from the coastal! LOL. It actually drops to 1006 in a later panel...VERY weak.
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Maybe but the 500H map seems to indicate almsot a pass of something. Maybe it does that with an inverted as well?
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The HRRR is really liking a baby version of RI as the energy gets closer to the coast.
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Nada on HRRR
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Right now I am going with 1-3" on non road surfaces over here. More likely 1 than 3.
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One not so great for snow pack thing I see on the Euro is the coming "artic blast" keeps getting minimized. It is still seasonably cold and BN much of the time but several days above freezing the week after any snow we get Monday. Temps moderate after the 9th.
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From what point/model run? re: if he said that for the 6Z Icon then it did on the 12Z, etc.
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The Euro snow map redone on MS Paint? Here is Euro QPF for Monday only. This situation is too fluid to say this is the final solution but it clearly shows how close or far away anyone can be for the event. Holding with 2-4" for my hood until I see more evidence otherwise. Keep seeing the obvious Miller B traits on these maps. BUT if these maps were 12-24 hours out I would bump it up to 4-6" for SW LSV and 3-5 for other areas of the LSV.
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Euro grabbed from MA but take 1/2-1" off this for the LSV as they forgot to only do a 24 hour map. So a general 4-6" snowfall for LSV.
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UK 10-1 for Friday where 10-1 would be very appropriate if not a tad too high.
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UK 10-1 for Monday. Add an inch or two for Kuch
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Yes, that was part of what I was inferring. Someone (this time me included) gets left out of the bigger snows when the coastal takes over.
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12Z Icon clearly shows the potential pitfalls of the Miller B. This snow map is for both events, fyi.
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While we are doing numbers, you can note a large scale trend here as to the south portion of the area (except Hanover.) THV ended very similar to HGR with only 31.16" making it the second driest year since full stats began at THV in 1999. 6-7" below mean. There has occasionally been some question about THV's equipment but just taking what the numbers say.
