Bubbler86

Interesting convo on the heat wave classification during one of my morning calls. Pretty much 100% agreement that getting 3 degrees over normal is not a heat wave. LOL. The thought was in mid to late July, it would need to hit 100 at MDT to get into Heat Wave area OR change the classification to HI. SVR Watch for SE PA.

So like a Saturday night at the Candersons.

I am not sure where in AZ but checked Phoenix and they only get 8-9" a year. There are storms that drop more than that in the Northeast on (rare) occasion.

Better start seeing some more activity pop up soon. Models have that area in Western PA dying off and a new line forming in Central PA.

Out in Arizona its going to be a lot easier....Dry, dry, and dry.

Here is the part where I mentioned I am on the line and surely them means I am included :-)

Early nooners. 77 and cloudy in Pen Mar. MDT is 79.

Not sure, just saw the Green on the NWS. Let's check the verbiage. By the way some sweet sweet 50's DP's tomorrow on the HRRR and GFS. ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From 4 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms may produce very heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding. This could include multiple rounds of storms which would enhance the flood risk. Rainfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour, locally higher in spots. The D.C. and Baltimore metros will be the most susceptible given recent heavy rainfall the past couple of weeks. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

I only got about .3 for the entire weekend so some of the folks just SE of Harrisburg got about as much this weekend as I have for June and July combined. But still doing fairly well here. Flood Watch for NE MD now.

The map I posted was the entire weekend. If you got .3 yesterday and .5 for the entire weekend it is not far off. It had .6's and .7's over random spots near Maytown.

PS-Estimated had you a bit higher some maybe some virga as well. I thought it was .5 or .6 on there.

I saw that. You kept having storms approach and split or fizzle. I only had about 1/3 of an inch as well but I did better early in the week.

That is a far cry from some of those estimated 4-5" totals to your South East. Most of that came yesterday and last night...a bit East of MDT.

The burg area taking it on the chops. Some spots over 5" on estimated.

No rain all weekend and cell clips me to the tune of one third inch. I will take it.

Lol

This year like none other since I moved back to PA.

Yep, I am betting against it. Especially for MDT. No model except the EC has MDT above 90 for 6 days in a row. GFS is the next closest but all but the EC has cooler temps close enough to MDT to throw it into doubt. Like I mentioned, I am going out on a big limb saying no 3 days in a row. Decent chance I fail on that one. If MDT stays below 90 tomorrow I will feel better. FWIW, next Sunday is next week so I took you literally in say 6 days above or at 90 this week which means you need tomorrow :-)

EC's MDT forecast for this week (and part of next) . 2PM Temps. 9 straight days above 90 assuming 1-2 degrees adds after 2PM. Mon: 88 Tue: 93 Wed: 94 Thur: 94 Fri: 92 Sat: 96 Next Week Sun: 94 Mon: 95 Tue: 89

So I do not think MDT even hits 90 until Wed and there is no heat wave this week. (3 or 5 day). Least confident about whether Tue makes it to 90 or not. Most confident that MDT does not have 5 straight days of 90 this week. Maybe not tomorrow which would mean every other day must hit 90 to make it (Tue-Sat). Saying no 3 day 90+ is a big risk on my part. But to me a heat wave has to be 5 days. The EC is your hope for a win. It is has beyond abysmal this summer. We have completely removed it from our forecasting strategy but I guess it may win at some point?

Wow, can your job transfer out there or will you be off for a bit while you deal with it?

Yea, this is worse than 90 and 60DP.

The GFS's portends to 2-3 normal warm days for you next week. Those 105-110 days shown yesterday, with humidity in the 70's, would be a Heat Index of 115 or higher.

Sunday AM rains proceeding toward S Central PA. Hope they make it.

I did not watch the whole video so it may have mentioned this but they have found at least 2 bodies of what are suspected murders.