Pretty much spot on why I never get too excited with ensemble cold waves until Op's start showing it. It's our right of winter to watch ensembles advertise us rockin' but then struggle to get it to come to fruition. Still hope this time will be better.
I have not looked at the models this AM (off this week) but its getting harder and harder to have a decent period of cold. We get some but its a struggle.
Ha. It's not exactly nirvana here neither as to those maps. Regardless of snow maps, as I think you mentioned, at least we have a work weeks of sustained cold from the 3rd to the 8th. Something to work with.
I have seen it but like you said, not sure I would call it sustained. As you have stated several times, would be nice to see a GFS run without 60 and 70's at some point. 6Z gave us that but just barely.
Number 1 with hope of it moving east. I guess I was surprised as I scanned over the MA Lr thread and saw several posts about how cold January was going to be. Thought the GFS Op would of shown a slightly better look.
Boy, those late 300hr 500MB Anomaly maps, on the GFS, are quite unique....the 2M temps go along with it. Still disappointing we cannot see anything sustained cold wise in the LR.
Jan 2/3 still in play. This is the real threat upcoming, IMO. SER is relaxed enough to allow something to come just to PA's west (dump to ending in rain) or even possibly under us.
That would make you beating him in tennis even more sweet.
Sun's out here now. 50. Shorts and t-shirt for Christmas dinner. The house is warm with all the cooking.