Bubbler86

My take on it...Right or wrong... the GFS digs a deep trough down into N. Texas which raises the heights over us...and the SER is still out there though displaced a bit East vs. now. So the low takes the path it is given. It attacks that high in the NE.

You are the Ukie king. I keep forgetting to check it. Thanks for keeping us on our toes (seriously).

Look at all the back and forth from the GFS on the Jan 3rd opportunity. It's what makes the hobby fun...I think?

Look at the trough. That is where it probably goes.

Its definitely something to keep an eye on. 500mb/ULL actually cuts off at 66 hours but quickly opens up again and escapes.

Rgem and GFS both bad to digging a bit more for Jan 3rd. That possibility just keeps keeping our eyes on it. Still south but much more energetic than the Nam. South MA forum loves the Rgem and GFS. DT special.

Icon was still a far Western PA special for a week from now...but still on the map and trackable. Need the high to be a couple hunderd miles farther East.

Yea, I really want to see us evolve into a pattern of "storms and rumors of storms" to move winter into a more of an exciting phase for us snow hounds. Ran through the 500MB panels on the 6Z GFS and its not a full time trough for us but a lot more panels showing a ridge forming in the West which is definitely a better look for us. Others here have post as such so not noew info but still good news if it comes to fruition.

It's not snow but many there are some impressive qpf figures coming in for the next 24-36 hours. Drought buster for the Southern PA areas under drought advisories right now. Nam and Icon both advertising 1.5-4".

He is an electrician so he may be doing some "rigging" to help us through our day. Some low voltage swapping to get all the right data into his models. LOL

It really does not form a concentrated area of LP until it's to the coast.

On the MR and LR front, somewhat excited to look through the 6Z GFS. Much less in the way of the up and down cold/warm routine. No disruptive (to the cold feed) cutter or North based SLP's after Jan 6th vs. a constant dome of High pressure keeping everything south of us. One could argue suppression but trying to win in a regime where the storm track is constantly to our west is way too hard. Will be eager to see if the look continues in a couple hours.

Some of the sounds Saturday night may not be fireworks....some storms possible in what looks like a fairly muggy and active night weather wise.

Yea, no problem with Rjay either. He adds a lot to the few OT threads I follow. Whether one agrees with his points, they are informational and fairly well stated. Do not agree that he has to act like robot cop, like he said last evening, but would be happy to continue that convo on PM if he had wanted. You handled last night VERY well. Props to you!

And Jburns post was basically what I suggested a mod should act like when "modding"...respectful. So props to his post. Since mentioned what I did in the NY thread, I thought it appropriate to mention the alternate side of it.

You ninja'ed me with late week improvements. Weird evolution for areas to your east (well far east as in South Eastern 1/3 of the state) . Almost Miller B like.

Salisbury is off the road trip choices. In 6 hours it went from 12" to zip for early week. But Pitt is looking prime this run....late week.

Talking Covid on here is not always appreciated but want to respond since you replied to my post about the fires and all the issues we are getting thrown at us (personal or public in nature) I know it is getting a little scary Covid wise though not sure anyone (including the disease expert) knows for sure what has or is happening. But being prepared or trying to be is probably the best route at this point. If things do get bad, my hope is that people step up to help each other. The next few weeks is already going to be a fight for a lot of people that suffer some level of post holiday depression. I believe that this type of issue is heightened and worse during a pandemic.

Yea, the boundary was quite a bit farther south and though the second wave formed, it was a goner for us. What was a closed off look at 18Z is progressive now.

It seems so many bad things are happening, either simultaneously or in succession, that is getting hard to stop and focus grief or concern on any given one. I had not heard about this until you brought it up.

The Nam is getting close to go time as to the short term stuff. A good 'ole namming would not be bad.

Not going to go down a long path with you other than to reaffirm that a mod should be one of the more upstanding citizens. Mocking people, baiting people, trolling, etc...makes for a bad look. Not directed at you though.

You non mod's are making some good points here. Saw the topic was hot so stopped in to check why. It is good of rjay to try and explain but one of the larger issues, at least in my opinion, is the general posting demeanor of Mod's. It's my opinion that mod's should not troll, post insulting emoji's or really say much of anything in a negative manner...sort of in the vein of how a policeman is supposed to be an upstanding citizen. Obviously reality is not like that but some mod's are outright unhinged in OT and it's a bad look. With saying that, I think that if most/all mod's posting habits were a little more moderate and less conducive to being a part of the problem, the general public would have a lot less issue with all things moderation in general.

I understood your post to be about the general long wave pattern and it is spot on. It's just a model run but anything resembling winter is transient. Could snow of course but during the entire run it only gets near or below 20, at MDT, one evening.

Watch it pal!