Bubbler86

Still shows some mixed precip in the LSV/most of Eastern PA(reported by Blizz on the 6Z I think) Monday afternoon with retreating cold.

Yea, its sort of a split between the Nam and the Icon. Low 60's for highs though a nose of cool may save MDT from getting there. (Model discussion, not forecast)

Icon was still a wet Saturday so GFS breaks the tie.

I think we did as well. My post was mostly to point out the unlucky timing we have had for Christmas the last several years and that this year will actually not be as bad as those. I remember there were several 70's reported Christmas eve last year (locals).

Yes, it was a midnight thing for Christmas. Christmas eve was the especially warm day.

Yea, it was sad. I have better November memories, since returning from Florida, than December as it pertains to weather.

We go into them filled with such enthusiasm based on, in my opinion, a combo of childhood memories and MJO/teleconnection hopes, and they do indeed seem to keep failing.

We do need to remember, at least down here, it hit 70 on Christmas eve just 6 years ago....and 66 12/24, 64 12/25 just last year. So this year may be a step down. LOL

Northeast Drought Summary Since the beginning of November, precipitation deficits continue to increase across the Mid-Atlantic. Washington, DC recorded only 1.15 inches of precipitation from Nov 1 to Dec 20. Based on increasing short-term precipitation deficits, 60-day SPI values, 28-day average streamflows, and declining soil moisture, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded north to include more of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

Yep, there have been 3 or 4 systems in a row that have started with the "deform band" over us and eventually shifted it north. NAM is completely dry Christmas. Just one model but I guess its possible now.

If true, our toys will not get wet when Santa drops them off.

Nam is first up with no rain into the LSV into Christmas morning. That period continues to dry out.

22 at 9AM in the 'Ville. Coldest temp at this time of the day so far this season.

Thanks Mag. I think it is equally as important to mention that the MJO 15 day discussion is model driven. Some general thought, 2-4 weeks ago, was that it would drive into 8. Also based on model data at that point. Since MJO forecasting capability is very limited at times, it really should not surprise anyone to see it drive into 8 during this upcoming period regardless of current LR predicts. In English, do not punt winter's first half as of yet. As most know, the MJO can go backwards at times as well.

73 percent is a country number, not PA. Only a few hundred to thousand cases in Pa per the stats I last saw. It's Omicron, not OMNI. Many counties in PA have had no cases of Omicron including big boy Allegheny which had no confirmed cases as of yesterday (though officials expect they may have some non reported). Just keeping the info real. Only 6 cases in PA as of 5 days ago but several hundred this week. https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/6-omicron-variant-cases-now-232815145.html

I am sure someone I left out is angrily wasting staples in anger right now. I know I forgot the tug hill!

We have everything you could want. Long rangers, people who look for anomalies, posters who will drill the HRRR for being off by a degree or two, wind racists and wind worshipers, our very own HR and training manager, drive by snipers, sports nuts and sports haters, more than one person who drives water places, people who work at home and can post twice what others do, a poster who only gets an hour or two of sun per day in the winter, like 10 different posters who call themselves paweather (insert number here), people in West central PA who only post when it snows, an actual met, NEWMAN!, occasional posts from Mets fans, people who miss ice resistance, people who have too much grass, people who are always in drought, South of the mason dixoners, and of course a guy who cannot handle the massive post count of the Pitt thread so he stops in here for a break. We are like the nexus of the universe here.

I wish it could be like that all the time. Fun. Anyway, I understand anothermans point but we are not doing public forecast here. Lol.

But most of us take it with a grain of salt. It's all fun, right?

I did because you told me not to.

That is probably right. From April to late May, its a mow fest in the 'Ville.

Blizz, I thought you must have blocked me. Glad to see you reply to one of my posts. My grass did die in the front (previous summer) and my home insurance paid to have that part of my yard re-sodded, but I think Training has been doing quite well in this department. He has a shot to mow in January!

18z is pretty rainy turnpike and north Christmas day. Low 60's where its not raining. Upper 50's where it is. No winter weather the rest of the year. Threat of 70 Jan 1.

Soon time for your HH GFS PBP.

I had one ordered but when the Fedex driver stopped by, he threw it toward me and it was high and my neighbor intercepted it.