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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    The 700-800 area is near 40 for me, on the Nam, when the precip starts tomorrow AM. It does crash some and change to sleet for a bit.
  2. Bubbler86
    It is retrograding the system for areas north of PA (and far Northern PA) Friday.
  3. Bubbler86
    Sounds like a safe, reasonable call. The big question for you would be any snow at the end from the coastal.
  4. Bubbler86
    Yea, the Nam is now casting a bit with that. Here is the column over my area when the rain starts. I would argue that technically this should show as Freezing rain but still in the 30's at the surface. Temp 35-40 above.
  5. Bubbler86
    Oh boy, the Nam now starts the LSV off with rain on the Pivotal maps (changes to frozen with evap cooling) and has cut way back on sleet with the WAA. TT looks different though. Same model but TT has less rain at the front but does cut back on the sleet.
  6. Bubbler86
    I hear rumor that he just put his $$$ down and bought what the HRRR is selling.
  7. Bubbler86
    For WSW level snows, I like those "West Central areas" such as elevations around State College.
  8. Bubbler86
    I actually changed the map to Kuch and it is not as much.
  9. Bubbler86
    The new HRRR continues to be one of the snowier models especially elevation. This does not include sleet and is Kuch.
  10. Bubbler86
    If you count sleet like those TT maps, you should exceed that. I do not personally count sleet, but I know the NWS does.
  11. Bubbler86
    17 here. Big thing was a mod-hvy frost. The grass should finally be done growing now. It has lost its green appearance.
  12. Bubbler86
    What did the floor guys say? But seriously, definitely a significant sleet accumulation possible especially northern area of the LSV.
  13. Bubbler86
    For this week, a quick run through the 6Z/0Z models and the GFS, UK and HRRR still have some snow in the LSV. GFS has sig snow in the Northern LSV actually. Rgem/CMC, Nam 3K and 12K, Euro, FV3 have backed the >1" snow line to the very top of the LSV (Pillowish) or totally out of the LSV. The Nam's backed way off for the MSV as well. @Cashtown_Coop, we are "out" on everything except the UK. The Rgem was close for you at 0Z but now is nothing.
  14. Bubbler86
    Wow, you are up early. The Euro dropped its PV into PHO idea. It is still not a great look for snow here (next week) but you are no longer progged to get record temps.
  15. Bubbler86
    I said the same yesterday. Weather may be ok by then assuming an evening concert.
  16. Bubbler86
    Waaa? You are kicking the can?
  17. Bubbler86
    Yep, a white Christmas the non SLP way :-).
  18. Bubbler86
    @Itstrainingtime, ironic we were just talking about this re: the 18Z GFS and Florida.
  19. Bubbler86
    Check out this frontal passage on the 18Z GFS. Snowstorm wise, this is probably too much of a good thing temp/PV wise.
  20. Bubbler86
    The GFS is again favoring the CENTRAL AND EASTERN LSV (vs West) for a flip to snow after a period of sleet and freezing rain.
  21. Bubbler86
    The Orlando low is from the 1800's so probably not MCO. LOL. FWIW, Orlando has gone under 25 more than 30 times in recorded history.
  22. Bubbler86
    This reminds me of some all-time records for Florida just for compare... Statewide: 1899 it reached -2 in Tallahassee First recorded appearance of snow in Florida: 1774 when 3" fell in many Panhandle locations Lowest temp Recorded in Orlando: 18 degrees.
  23. Bubbler86
    It is indeed...may give you reason to check out the 0Z to see if it holds!
  24. Bubbler86
    The 3K is showing a slightly more favorable flip to snow before the column is overwhealmed....Northern LSV gets some white though it may be washed away.
  25. Bubbler86
    Another good panel for discussion today....the EPS ensemble low positions for the 23rd White Christmas or bust situation. This was posted on the MA thread.
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